Dataset Information

Evaluating the impact of a small number of areas on spatial estimation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There is an expanding literature on different representations of spatial random effects for different types of spatial correlation structure within the conditional autoregressive class of priors for Bayesian spatial models. However, little is known about the impact of these different priors when the number of areas is small. This paper aimed to investigate this problem both in the context of a case study of spatial analysis of dengue fever and more generally through a simulation study.

Methods

Both the simulation study and the case study considered count data aggregated to a small area level in a region. Five different conditional autoregressive priors for a simple Bayesian Poisson model were considered: independent, Besag-York-Mollié, Leroux, and two variants of a localised clustering model. Data were simulated with eight different sizes of areal grids, ranging from 4 to 2500 areas, and two different levels of both spatial autocorrelation and disease counts. Model goodness-of-fit measures and model estimates were compared. A case study involving dengue fever cases in 14 local areas in Makassar, Indonesia, was also considered.

Results

The simulation study showed that model performance varied under different scenarios. When areas had low autocorrelation and high counts, and the number of areas was at most 25, the BYM, Leroux and localised [Formula: see text] models performed similarly and better than the independent and localised [Formula: see text] models. However, when the number of areas were at least 100, all models performed differently, and the Leroux model performed the best. Overall, the Leroux model performed the best for every scenario especially when there were at least 16 areas. Based on the case study, the comparative performance of spatial models may also vary for a small number of areas, especially when the data have a relatively large mean and variance over areas. In this case, the localised model with G?=?3 was a better choice.

Conclusion

Detecting spatial patterns can be difficult when there are very few areas. Understanding the characteristics of the data and the relative influence of alternative conditional autoregressive priors is essential in selecting an appropriate Bayesian spatial model.

SUBMITTER: Aswi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7519538 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Evaluating the impact of a small number of areas on spatial estimation.

Aswi Aswi A Cramb Susanna S Duncan Earl E Mengersen Kerrie K

International journal of health geographics 20200925 1

<h4>Background</h4>There is an expanding literature on different representations of spatial random effects for different types of spatial correlation structure within the conditional autoregressive class of priors for Bayesian spatial models. However, little is known about the impact of these different priors when the number of areas is small. This paper aimed to investigate this problem both in the context of a case study of spatial analysis of dengue fever and more generally through a simulati ...[more]

PMID: 32977803

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Dataset Information

Evaluating the impact of a small number of areas on spatial estimation.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Evaluating the impact of a small number of areas on spatial estimation.

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