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Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy

ABSTRACT: Background The real impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on overall mortality remains uncertain as surveillance reports have attributed a limited number of deaths to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak. The aim of this study was to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy. Methods We analysed data on deaths that occurred in the first 4?months of 2020 provided by the health protection agencies (HPAs) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths and predicting the daily standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths through a Poisson generalised additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference. Results We estimated that there were 5740 (95% credible set (CS) 5552–5936) excess deaths in the HPA of Bergamo and 3703 (95% CS 3535–3877) in Brescia, corresponding to a 2.55-fold (95% CS 2.50–2.61) and 1.93 (95% CS 1.89–1.98) increase in the number of deaths. The excess death wave started a few days later in Brescia, but the daily estimated SMR peaked at the end of March in both HPAs, roughly 2?weeks after the introduction of lockdown measures, with significantly higher estimates in Bergamo (9.4, 95% CI 9.1–9.7). Conclusion Excess mortality was significantly higher than that officially attributed to COVID-19, disclosing its hidden burden likely due to indirect effects on the health system. Time-series analyses highlighted the impact of lockdown restrictions, with a lower excess mortality in the HPA where there was a smaller delay between the epidemic outbreak and their enforcement. This study identifies another important element to research on #SARSCoV2 and provides actionable strategies to quantify the excess mortality due to #COVID19 spread, which has public health and research implications to minimise the disease impacthttps://bit.ly/3jbKXAW

SUBMITTER: Conti S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7520169 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Northern Italy has been the first European area affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and related social restrictive measures. We sought to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on PICU admissions in Northern Italy, using data from the Italian Network of Pediatric Intensive Care Units Registry. We included all patients admitted to 4 PICUs from 8-weeks-before to 8-weeks-after February 24th, 2020, and those admitted in the same period in 2019. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) evaluating incidence rate differences between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods in 2020 (IRR-1), as well as between the post-COVID-19-period with the same period in 2019 (IRR-2), were computed using zero-inflated negative binomial or Poisson regression modeling. A total of 1001 admissions were included. The number of PICU admissions significantly decreased during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 and compared to the same period in 2020 (IRR-1 0.63 [95%CI 0.50-0.79]; IRR-2 0.70 [CI 0.57-0.91]). Unplanned and medical admissions significantly decreased (IRR-1 0.60 [CI 0.46-0.70]; IRR-2 0.67 [CI 0.51-0.89]; and IRR-1 0.52, [CI 0.40-0.67]; IRR-2 0.77 [CI 0.58-1.00], respectively). Intra-hospital, planned (potentially delayed by at least 12 h), and surgical admissions did not significantly change. Patients admitted for respiratory failure significantly decreased (IRR-1 0.55 [CI 0.37-0.77]; IRR-2 0.48 [CI 0.33-0.69]).Conclusions: Unplanned and medical PICU admissions significantly decreased during COVID-19 outbreak, especially those for respiratory failure. What is Known: • Northern Italy has been the first European area affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. • Although children are relatively spared from the severe COVID-19 disease, the pediatric care system has been affected by social restrictive measures, with a reported 73-88% reduction in pediatric emergency department admissions. What is New: • Unplanned and medical PICU admissions significantly decreased during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 and to the same period in 2019, especially those for respiratory failure. Further studies are needed to identify associated factors and new prevention strategies.

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Magnitude and time-course of excess mortality during COVID-19 outbreak: population-based empirical evidence from highly impacted provinces in northern Italy

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