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Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand.

ABSTRACT: Yearly increase in influenza activity is associated with cold and dry winter in the temperate regions, while influenza patterns in tropical countries vary significantly by regional climates and geographic locations. To examine the association between influenza activity in Thailand and local climate factors including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, we analyzed the influenza surveillance data from January 2010 to December 2018 obtained from a large private hospital in Bangkok. We found that approximately one in five influenza-like illness samples (21.6% or 6,678/30,852) tested positive for influenza virus. Influenza virus typing showed that 34.2% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 46.0% were influenza A(H3N2), and 19.8% were influenza B virus. There were two seasonal waves of increased influenza activity. Peak influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 activity occurred in February and again in August, while influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses were primarily detected in August and September. Time series analysis suggests that increased relative humidity was significantly associated with increased influenza activity in Bangkok. Months with peak influenza activity generally followed the most humid months of the year. We performed the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) multivariate analysis of all influenza activity on the 2011 to 2017 data to predict the influenza activity for 2018. The resulting model closely resembled the actual observed overall influenza detected that year. Consequently, the ability to predict seasonal pattern of influenza in a large tropical city such as Bangkok may enable better public health planning and underscores the importance of annual influenza vaccination prior to the rainy season.

SUBMITTER: Suntronwong N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7523966 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand.

Suntronwong Nungruthai N Vichaiwattana Preeyaporn P Klinfueng Sirapa S Korkong Sumeth S Thongmee Thanunrat T Vongpunsawad Sompong S Poovorawan Yong Y

PloS one 20200929 9

Yearly increase in influenza activity is associated with cold and dry winter in the temperate regions, while influenza patterns in tropical countries vary significantly by regional climates and geographic locations. To examine the association between influenza activity in Thailand and local climate factors including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, we analyzed the influenza surveillance data from January 2010 to December 2018 obtained from a large private hospital in Bangkok. We fou ...[more]

PMID: 32991630

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Project description:In advance of a large influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) cohort study among older adults in Thailand, we conducted a population-based, cross-sectional survey to measure vaccine coverage and identify factors associated with influenza vaccination among older Thai adults that could bias measures of vaccine effectiveness.We selected adults ?65 years using a two-stage, stratified, cluster sampling design. Functional status was assessed using the 10-point Vulnerable Elders Survey (VES); scores ?3 indicated vulnerability. Questions about attitudes towards vaccination were based on the Health Belief Model. The distance between participants' households and the nearest vaccination clinic was calculated. Vaccination status was determined using national influenza vaccination registry. Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using log-binomial multivariable models accounting for the sampling design.We enrolled 581 participants, of whom 60% were female, median age was 72 years, 41% had at least one chronic underlying illness, 24% met the criteria for vulnerable, and 23% did not leave the house on a daily basis. Influenza vaccination rate was 34%. In multivariable models, no variable related to functional status was associated with vaccination. The strongest predictors of vaccination were distance to the nearest vaccination center (PR 3.0, 95% CI 1.7-5.1 for participants in the closest quartile compared to the furthest), and high levels of a perception of benefits of influenza vaccination (PR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.6) and cues to action (PR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-5.1).Distance to vaccination clinics should be considered in analyses of influenza VE studies in Thailand. Strategies that emphasize benefits of vaccination and encourage physicians to recommend annual influenza vaccination could improve influenza vaccine uptake among older Thai adults. Outreach to more distant and less mobile older adults may also be required to improve influenza vaccination coverage.

Project description:BackgroundSeasonal influenza is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Routine immunization of children has the potential to reduce this mortality through both direct and indirect protection, but has not been adopted by any low- or middle-income countries. We developed a framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination policies in developing countries and used it to consider annual vaccination of school- and preschool-aged children with either trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) or trivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Thailand. We also compared these approaches with a policy of expanding TIV coverage in the elderly.Methods and findingsWe developed an age-structured model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of eight vaccination policies parameterized using country-level data from Thailand. For policies using LAIV, we considered five different age groups of children to vaccinate. We adopted a Bayesian evidence-synthesis framework, expressing uncertainty in parameters through probability distributions derived by fitting the model to prospectively collected laboratory-confirmed influenza data from 2005-2009, by meta-analysis of clinical trial data, and by using prior probability distributions derived from literature review and elicitation of expert opinion. We performed sensitivity analyses using alternative assumptions about prior immunity, contact patterns between age groups, the proportion of infections that are symptomatic, cost per unit vaccine, and vaccine effectiveness. Vaccination of children with LAIV was found to be highly cost-effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between about 2,000 and 5,000 international dollars per disability-adjusted life year averted, and was consistently preferred to TIV-based policies. These findings were robust to extensive sensitivity analyses. The optimal age group to vaccinate with LAIV, however, was sensitive both to the willingness to pay for health benefits and to assumptions about contact patterns between age groups.ConclusionsVaccinating school-aged children with LAIV is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand in the short term, though the long-term consequences of such a policy cannot be reliably predicted given current knowledge of influenza epidemiology and immunology. Our work provides a coherent framework that can be used for similar analyses in other low- and middle-income countries.

Project description:The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice of Thailand prioritizes seasonal influenza vaccinations for populations who are at highest risk for serious complications (pregnant women, children 6 months-2 years, persons ?65 years, persons with chronic diseases, obese persons), and healthcare personnel and poultry cullers. The Thailand government purchases seasonal influenza vaccine for these groups. We assessed vaccination coverage among high-risk groups in Thailand from 2010 to 2012.National records on persons who received publicly purchased vaccines from 2010 to 2012 were analyzed by high-risk category. Denominator data from multiple sources were compared to calculate coverage. Vaccine coverage was defined as the proportion of individuals in each category who received the vaccine. Vaccine wastage was defined as the proportion of publicly purchased vaccines that were not used.From 2010 to 2012, 8.18 million influenza vaccines were publicly purchased (range, 2.37-3.29 million doses/year), and vaccine purchases increased 39% over these years. Vaccine wastage was 9.5%. Approximately 5.7 million (77%) vaccine doses were administered to persons ?65 years and persons with chronic diseases, 1.4 million (19%) to healthcare personnel/poultry cullers, 82,570 (1.1%) to children 6 months-2 years, 78,885 (1.1%) to obese persons, 26,481 (0.4%) to mentally disabled persons, and 17,787 (0.2%) to pregnant women. Between 2010 and 2012, coverage increased among persons with chronic diseases (8.6% versus 14%; p<0.01) and persons ?65 years (12%, versus 20%; p<0.01); however, coverage decreased for mentally disabled persons (6.1% versus 4.9%; p<0.01), children 6 months-2 years (2.3% versus 0.9%; p<0.01), pregnant women (1.1% versus 0.9%; p<0.01), and obese persons (0.2% versus 0.1%; p<0.01).From 2010 to 2012, the availability of publicly purchased vaccines increased. While coverage remained low for all target groups, coverage was highest among persons ?65 years and persons with chronic diseases. Annual coverage assessments are necessary to promote higher coverage among high-risk groups in Thailand.

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Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand.

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