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Incremental prognostic value of a novel metabolite-based biomarker score in congestive heart failure patients.

ABSTRACT: AIMS:The Cardiac Lipid Panel (CLP) is a newly discovered panel of metabolite-based biomarkers that has shown to improve the diagnostic value of N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). However, little is known about its usefulness in predicting outcomes. In this study, we developed a risk score for 4-year cardiovascular death in elderly chronic heart failure (CHF) patients using the CLP. METHODS AND RESULTS:From the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study in Elderly trial, we included 280 patients with CHF aged >65 years. A targeted metabolomic analysis of the CLP biomarkers was performed on baseline serum samples. Cox regression was used to determine the association of the biomarkers with the outcome after accounting for established risk factors. A risk score ranging from 0 to 4 was calculated by counting the number of biomarkers above the cut-offs, using Youden index. During the mean (standard deviation) follow-up period of 50 (8) months, 35 (18%) subjects met the primary endpoint of cardiovascular death. The area under the receiver operating curve for the model based on clinical variables was 0.84, the second model with NT-proBNP was 0.86, and the final model with the CLP was 0.90. The categorical net reclassification index was 0.25 using three risk categories: 0-60% (low), 60-85% (intermediate), and >85% (high). The continuous net reclassification index was 0.772, and the integrated discrimination index was 0.104. CONCLUSIONS:In patients with CHF, incorporating a panel of three metabolite-based biomarkers into a risk score improved the prognostic utility of NT-proBNP by predicting long-term cardiovascular death more precisely. This novel approach holds promise to improve clinical risk assessment in CHF patients.

SUBMITTER: McGranaghan P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7524071 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Incremental prognostic value of a novel metabolite-based biomarker score in congestive heart failure patients.

McGranaghan Peter P Düngen Hans-Dirk HD Saxena Anshul A Rubens Muni M Salami Joseph J Radenkovic Jasmin J Bach Doris D Apostolovic Svetlana S Loncar Goran G Zdravkovic Marija M Tahirovic Elvis E Veskovic Jovan J Störk Stefan S Veledar Emir E Pieske Burkert B Edelmann Frank F Trippel Tobias Daniel TD

ESC heart failure 20200828 5

<h4>Aims</h4>The Cardiac Lipid Panel (CLP) is a newly discovered panel of metabolite-based biomarkers that has shown to improve the diagnostic value of N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). However, little is known about its usefulness in predicting outcomes. In this study, we developed a risk score for 4-year cardiovascular death in elderly chronic heart failure (CHF) patients using the CLP.<h4>Methods and results</h4>From the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study in Elderly t ...[more]

PMID: 32860352

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Project description:AimsInsulin-like growth factor binding protein-4 (IGFBP-4) fragments have been shown to predict the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, including segment-elevation myocardial infarction, in patients with acute coronary syndrome. We evaluated the prognostic value of the carboxy-terminal fragment of IGFBP-4 (CT-IGFBP-4) for all-cause mortality in emergency room patients with acute heart failure (AHF).Methods and resultsCT-IGFBP-4, N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured at admission from the lithium-heparin plasma of 156 patients with AHF. All-cause mortality was recorded for 1 year. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox proportional hazard ratio analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the various clinical variables, CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, CRP, and their combinations. During 1 year of follow-up, 52 (33.3%) patients died. CT-IGFBP-4 only weakly correlated with NT-proBNP (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.16, P = 0.044) and did not correlate with CRP (r = 0.08, P = 0.35), emphasizing the different nature of these biomarkers. The receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of CT-IGFBP-4 for the prediction of all-cause mortality (0.727) was significantly higher than that of NT-proBNP (0.680, P = 0.045) and CRP (0.669, P = 0.016). The combination of CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, and CRP predicted mortality significantly better (ROC AUC = 0.788) than any of the biomarkers alone (P < 0.01 for all). The addition of CT-IGFBP-4 to a clinical prediction model that included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and sodium levels, as well as the history of previous heart failure, coronary artery disease, and hypertension significantly improved the mortality risk prediction (ROC AUC 0.774 vs. 0.699, P = 0.025). Cox hazard analysis indicated that elevated CT-IGFBP-4 was independently associated with 1 year mortality (hazard ratio 3.26, P = 0.0008) after adjustment for age, gender, history of previous heart failure, coronary artery disease, hypertension, chronic kidney failure, history of diabetes, heart rate, haemoglobin, plasma sodium, NT-proBNP, CRP, cystatin C, and elevated cardiac troponin I or T. Patients with increased levels of either two or three of the biomarkers CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, and CRP had significantly higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 10.04, P < 0.0001) than patients with increased levels of one or none of the biomarkers.ConclusionsCT-IGFBP-4 was independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with AHF. Compared with single biomarkers, the combination of CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, and CRP improved the prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with AHF.

Project description:Background Circulating microRNAs are emerging biomarkers for heart failure (HF). Our study aimed to assess the prognostic value of microRNA signature that is differentially expressed in patients with acute HF. Methods and Results Our study comprised a screening cohort of 15 patients with AHF and 5 controls, a PCR-discovery cohort of 50 patients with AHF and 26 controls and a validation cohort of 564 patients with AHF from registered study DRAGON-HF (Diagnostic, Risk Stratification and Prognostic Value of Novel Biomarkers in Patients With Heart Failure). Through screening by RNA-sequencing and verification by reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction, 9 differentially expressed microRNAs were verified (miR-939-5p, miR-1908-5p, miR-7706, miR-101-3p, miR-144-3p, miR-4732-3p, miR-3615, miR-484 and miR-19b-3p). Among them, miR-19b-3p was identified as the microRNA signature with the highest fold-change of 8.4 and the strongest prognostic potential (area under curve with 95% CI, 0.791, 0.654-0.927). To further validate its prognostic value, in the validation cohort, the baseline level of miR-19b-3p was measured. During a follow-up period of 19.1 (17.7, 20.7) months, primary end point comprising of all-cause mortality or readmission due to HF occurred in 48.9% patients, while patients in the highest quartile of miR-19b-3p level presented the worst survival (Log-rank P<0.001). Multivariate Cox model showed that the level of miR-19b-3p could independently predict the occurrence of primary end point (adjusted hazard ratio,1.39; 95% CI, 1.18-1.64). In addition, miR-19b-3p positively correlated with soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 and echocardiographic indexes of left ventricular hypertrophy. Conclusions Circulating miR-19b-3p could be a valuable prognostic biomarker for AHF. In addition, a high level of circulating miR-19b-3p might indicate ventricular hypertrophy in AHF subjects. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT03727828.

Project description:BackgroundCurrent heart failure (HF) risk prediction models do not consider how individual patient assessments occur in incremental steps; furthermore, each additional diagnostic evaluation may add cost, complexity, and potential morbidity.Methods and resultsUsing a cohort of well-treated ambulatory HF patients with reduced ejection fraction who had complete clinical, laboratory, health-related quality of life, imaging, and exercise testing data, we estimated incremental prognostic information provided by 5 assessment categories, performing an additional analysis on those with available N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. We compared the incremental value of each additional assessment (quality of life screen, laboratory testing, echocardiography, and exercise testing) to baseline clinical assessment for predicting clinical outcomes (all-cause mortality, all-cause mortality/hospitalization, and cardiovascular death/HF hospitalizations), gauging incremental improvements in prognostic ability with more information using area under the curve and reclassification improvement (net reclassification index), with and without NT-proBNP availability. Of 2331 participants, 1631 patients had complete clinical data; of these, 1023 had baseline NT-proBNP. For prediction of all-cause mortality, models with incremental assessments sans NT-proBNP showed improvements in C-indices (0.72 [clinical model alone]-0.77 [complete model]). Compared with baseline clinical assessment alone, net reclassification index improved from 0.035 (w/laboratory data) to 0.085 (complete model). These improvements were significantly attenuated for models in the subset with measured NT-proBNP data (c-indices: 0.80 [w/laboratory data]-0.81 [full model]); net reclassification index improvements were similarly marginal (0.091→0.096); prediction of other clinical outcomes had similar findings.ConclusionsIn chronic HF patients with reduced ejection fraction, the marginal benefit of complex prognostic evaluations should be weighed against potential patient discomfort and cost escalation.Clinical trial registrationURL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00047437.

Dataset Information

Incremental prognostic value of a novel metabolite-based biomarker score in congestive heart failure patients.

Publications

Incremental prognostic value of a novel metabolite-based biomarker score in congestive heart failure patients.

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