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Political borders impact associations between habitat suitability predictions and resource availability

ABSTRACT: Context By linking species of conservation concern to their abiotic and biotic requirements, habitat suitability models (HSM) can assist targeted conservation measures. Yet, conservation measures may fail if HSM are unable to predict crucial resources. HSM are typically developed using remotely sensed land-cover classification data but not information on resources per se. Objectives While a certain land-cover class may correlate with crucial resources in the area of calibration, political boundaries can abruptly alter these associations. We investigate this potential discrepancy in a well-known study system highly relevant for farmland bird conservation. Methods We compared land cover, land-use intensity and resource availability between plots of highest habitat suitability for little owls (Athene noctua) among two neighbouring, but politically separated areas (i.e. south-western Germany vs. northern Switzerland). Results Land cover and land-use richness did not differ between German and Swiss plots. Yet there were marked differences in terms of land-use intensity and the availability of resources. Land-use intensity was significantly higher and resource availability lower in Swiss compared to German plots. Conclusions While accounting well for remotely sensed data such as land cover, HSM may fail to predict land-use intensity and resources across borders. The relationship between geodata used as proxies and ecologically relevant resources may differ according to history, policies and socio-cultural context, constraining the viability of HSM across political borders. This study emphasises the need for fine-scale resource assessments complementing landscape-scale suitability models. Conservation measures need to consider the availability of crucial resources and their socio-economic moderators to be effective. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10980-020-01103-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

SUBMITTER: Tschumi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7524687 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The influence of climate on the distribution of taxa has been extensively investigated in the last two decades through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). In this context, the Worldclim database represents an invaluable data source as it provides worldwide climate surfaces for both historical and future time horizons. Thousands of HSMs-based papers have been published taking advantage of Worldclim 1.4, the first online version of this repository. In 2017, Worldclim 2.1 was released. Here, we evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing on Europe, between HSMs fitted using climate surfaces from the two Worldclim versions (between-version differences). To this aim, we simulated occurrence probability and presence-absence across Europe of four virtual species (VS) with differing climate-occurrence relationships. For each VS, we fitted HSMs upon uncorrelated bioclimatic variables derived from each Worldclim version at three grid resolutions. For each factor combination, HSMs attaining sufficient discrimination performance on spatially independent test data were projected across Europe under current conditions and various future scenarios, and importance scores of the single variables were computed. HSMs failed in accurately retrieving the simulated climate-occurrence relationships for the climate-tolerant VS and the one occurring under a narrow combination of climatic conditions. Under current climate, noticeable between-version prediction mismatch emerged across most of Europe for these two VSs, whose simulated suitability mainly depended upon diurnal or yearly variability in temperature; differently, between-version differences were more clustered toward areas showing extreme values, like mountainous massifs or southern regions, for VSs responding to average temperature and precipitation trends. Under future climate, the chosen emission scenarios and Global Climate Models did not evidently influence between-version prediction discrepancies, while grid resolution synergistically interacted with VSs' niche characteristics in determining extent of such differences. Our findings could help in re-evaluating previous biodiversity-related works relying on geographical predictions from Worldclim-based HSMs.

Project description:Conserving threatened species relies on an understanding of their habitat requirements. This is especially relevant for granivorous birds, whose habitat use and movement patterns are intricately linked to the spatial and temporal availability of resources such as food and water. In this study, we investigated the habitat use, home range and daily activity patterns of the Endangered Southern Black-throated Finch (SBTF; Poephila cincta cincta) within a 75,000 ha savanna woodland study area in northeastern Australia. This semi-arid region is one of the key remaining strongholds for the species and is characterised by substantially different habitat and climatic conditions than areas where previous research on this species has been undertaken. We radio tracked 142 SBTF using both manual tracking and an array of 27 automated radio towers, which revealed a strong preference for eucalypt-dominated grassy woodland communities. The preference for these habitats also increased with decreasing distance to permanent water. While SBTF occupied large home ranges, individual SBTF were largely sedentary during the radio tracking period (21.8, range = 0.83-120 days), with few landscape-scale movements of more than 4.5 km. Daily foraging activity of SBTF exhibited bimodal peaks in the early morning and late afternoon, while other activities were greatest from the late morning to the early afternoon. Compared to other estrildid finches, our research suggests that SBTF track resources at a local scale across a large home range. We postulate that in times of resource scarcity SBTF may use dietary diversification, instead of landscape or regional-scale nomadic movements, to meet their resource needs. The species' movement patterns underscore the importance of local scale habitat management to facilitate resource availability throughout the year. Furthermore, our research helps target monitoring designs for granivorous birds that focus on the species' diurnal activity patterns.

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Political borders impact associations between habitat suitability predictions and resource availability

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