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Replication and the Establishment of Scientific Truth

ABSTRACT: The idea of replication is based on the premise that there are empirical regularities or universal laws to be replicated and verified, and the scientific method is adequate for doing it. Scientific truth, however, is not absolute but relative to time, context, and the method used. Time and context are inextricably intertwined in that time (e.g., Christmas Day vs. New Year’s Day) creates different contexts for behaviors and contexts create different experiences of time, rendering psychological phenomena inherently variable. This means that internal and external conditions fluctuate and are different in a replication study vs. the original. Thus, a replication experiment is just another empirical investigation in an ongoing effort to establish scientific truth. Neither the original nor a replication is the final arbiter of whether or not something exists. Discovered patterns need not be permanent laws of human behavior proven by the pinpoint statistical verification through replication. To move forward, phenomenon replications are needed to investigate phenomena in different ways, forms, contexts, and times. Such investigations look at phenomena not just in terms the magnitude of their effects but also by their frequency, duration, and intensity in labs and real life. They will also shed light on the extent to which lab manipulations may make many phenomena subjectively conscious events and effects (e.g., causal attributions) when they are nonconsciously experienced in real life, or vice versa. As scientific knowledge in physics is temporary and incomplete, should it be any surprise that science can only provide “temporary winners” for psychological knowledge of human behavior?

SUBMITTER: Iso-Ahola S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7525033 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The replication crisis poses important challenges to modern science. Central to this challenge is re-establishing ground truths or the most fundamental theories that serve as the bedrock to a scientific community. However, the goal to identify hypotheses with the greatest support is non-trivial given the unprecedented rate of scientific publishing. In this era of high-volume science, the goal of this study is to sample from one research community within clinical neuroscience (traumatic brain injury) and track major trends that have shaped this literature over the past 50 years. To do so, we first conduct a decade-wise (1980-2019) network analysis to examine the scientific communities that shape this literature. To establish the robustness of our findings, we utilized searches from separate search engines (Web of Science; Semantic Scholar). As a second goal, we sought to determine the most highly cited hypotheses influencing the literature in each decade. In a third goal, we then searched for any papers referring to 'replication' or efforts to reproduce findings within our >50 000 paper dataset. From this search, 550 papers were analysed to determine the frequency and nature of formal replication studies over time. Finally, to maximize transparency, we provide a detailed procedure for the creation and analysis of our dataset, including a discussion of each of our major decision points, to facilitate similar efforts in other areas of neuroscience. We found that the unparalleled rate of scientific publishing within the brain injury literature combined with the scarcity of clear hypotheses in individual publications is a challenge to both evaluating accepted findings and determining paths forward to accelerate science. Additionally, while the conversation about reproducibility has increased over the past decade, the rate of published replication studies continues to be a negligible proportion of the research. Meta-science and computational methods offer the critical opportunity to assess the state of the science and illuminate pathways forward, but ultimately there is structural change needed in the brain injury literature and perhaps others.

Project description:A new fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), was identified in wild populations of salamanders in the Netherlands and Belgium, and in kept salamander populations in Germany and the United Kingdom. EFSA assessed the potential of Bsal to affect the health of wild and kept salamanders in the EU, the effectiveness and feasibility of a movement ban of traded salamanders, the validity, reliability and robustness of available diagnostic methods for Bsal detection, and possible alternative methods and feasible risk mitigation measures to ensure safe international and EU trade of salamanders and their products. Bsal was isolated and characterised in 2013 from a declining fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population in the Netherlands. Based on the available evidence, it is likely that Bsal is a sufficient cause for the death of S. salamandra both in the laboratory and in the wild. Despite small sample sizes, the available experimental evidence indicates that Bsal is associated with disease and death in individuals of 12 European and 3 Asian salamander species, and with high mortality rate outbreaks in kept salamanders. Bsal experimental infection was detected in individuals of at least one species pertaining to the families Salamandridae, Plethodontidae, Hynobiidae and Sirenidae. Movement bans constitute key risk mitigation measures to prevent pathogen spread into naïve areas and populations. The effectiveness of a movement ban is mainly dependent on the import volumes, possibility of Bsal to remain viable outside susceptible/tolerant species, and the capacity to limit illegal movements. Duplex real-time PCR can be used to detect Bsal DNA, but has not been fully validated. Quarantining salamanders, enacting legislation that requires testing of animals to demonstrate freedom from Bsal, before movement can take place, restricting salamander movements, tracking all traded species, hygienic procedures/biosecurity measures before and during movements, and increasing public awareness are relevant measures for ensuring safe intra-EU and international trade of salamanders.

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Replication and the Establishment of Scientific Truth

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