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The Disappearing Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift.


ABSTRACT: (Lucca and Moench, 2015) document large average excess returns in U.S. equities before scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings from September 1994 to March 2011, leading to a puzzle not explained by standard asset pricing theory. We extend the sample to December 2019. We find that after first appearing before FOMC announcements accompanied by the Fed Chair press conferences, the pre-FOMC drift essentially disappeared after 2015 in both announcements accompanied by press conferences and announcements not accompanied by press conferences. We discuss a possible explanation for this change: reduced uncertainty.

SUBMITTER: Kurov A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7525326 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The disappearing pre-FOMC announcement drift.

Kurov Alexander A   Wolfe Marketa Halova MH   Gilbert Thomas T  

Finance research letters 20200930


Lucca and Moench (2015) document large average excess returns in U.S. equities before scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings from September 1994 to March 2011, leading to a puzzle not explained by standard asset pricing theory. We extend the sample to December 2019. We find that after first appearing before FOMC announcements accompanied by the Fed Chair press conferences, the pre-FOMC drift essentially disappeared after 2015 in both announcements accompanied by press conference  ...[more]

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