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Bayesian approach for maize yield response to plant density from both agronomic and economic viewpoints in North America.

ABSTRACT: Targeting the right agronomic optimum plant density (AOPD) for maize (Zea mays L.) is a critical management decision, but even more when the seed cost and grain selling price are accounted for, i.e. economic OPD (EOPD). From the perspective of improving those estimates, past studies have focused on utilizing a Frequentist (classical) approach for obtaining single-point estimates for the yield-density models. Alternative analysis models such as Bayesian computational methods can provide more reliable estimation for AOPD, EOPD and yield at those optimal densities and better quantify the scope of uncertainty and variability that may be in the data. Thus, the aims of this research were to (i) quantify AOPD, EOPD and yield at those plant densities, (ii) obtain and compare clusters of yield-density for different attainable yields and latitudes, and (iii) characterize their influence on EOPD variability under different economic scenarios, i.e. seed cost to corn price ratios. Maize hybrid by seeding rate trials were conducted in 24 US states from 2010 to 2019, in at least one county per state. This study identified common yield-density response curves as well as plant density and yield optimums for 460 site-years. Locations below 40.5 N latitude showed a positive relationship between AOPD and maximum yield, in parallel to the high potential level of productivity. At these latitudes, EOPD depended mostly on the maximum attainable yield. For the northern latitudes, EOPD was not only dependent on the attainable yield but on the cost:price ratio, with high ratios favoring reductions in EOPD at similar yields. A significant contribution from the Bayesian method was realizing that the variability of the estimators for AOPD is sometimes greater than the adjustment accounting for seed cost. Our results point at the differential response across latitudes and commercial relative maturity, as well as the significant uncertainty in the prediction of AOPD, relative to the economic value of the crop and the seed cost adjustments.

SUBMITTER: Lacasa J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7525453 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian approach for maize yield response to plant density from both agronomic and economic viewpoints in North America.

Lacasa Josefina J Gaspar Adam A Hinds Mark M Jayasinghege Don Sampath S Berning Dan D Ciampitti Ignacio A IA

Scientific reports 20200929 1

Targeting the right agronomic optimum plant density (AOPD) for maize (Zea mays L.) is a critical management decision, but even more when the seed cost and grain selling price are accounted for, i.e. economic OPD (EOPD). From the perspective of improving those estimates, past studies have focused on utilizing a Frequentist (classical) approach for obtaining single-point estimates for the yield-density models. Alternative analysis models such as Bayesian computational methods can provide more reli ...[more]

PMID: 32994486

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Project description:Continued yield increases of maize (Zea mays L.) will require higher planting populations, and enhancement of other agronomic inputs could alleviate density-induced stress. Row spacing, plant population, P-S-Zn fertility, K-B fertility, N fertility, and foliar protection were evaluated for their individual and cumulative impacts on the productivity of maize in a maize-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. An incomplete factorial design with these agronomic factors in both 0.76 and 0.51 m row widths was implemented for 13 trials in Illinois, United States, from 2014 to 2018. The agronomic treatments were compared to two controls: enhanced and standard, comprising all the factors applied at the enhanced or standard level, respectively. The 0.51 m enhanced management control yielded 3.3 Mg ha-1 (1.8-4.6 Mg ha-1 across the environments) more grain (25%) than the 0.76 m standard management control, demonstrating the apparent yield gap between traditional farm practices and attainable yield through enhanced agronomic management. Narrow rows and the combination of P-S-Zn and K-B fertility were the factors that provided the most significant yield increases over the standard control. Increasing plant population from 79,000 to 109,000 plants ha-1 reduced the yield gap when all other inputs were applied at the enhanced level. However, increasing plant population alone did not increase yield when no other factors were enhanced. Some agronomic factors, such as narrow rows and availability of plant nutrition, become more critical with increasing plant population when density-induced stress is more significant. Changes in yield were dependent upon changes in kernel number. Kernel weight was the heaviest when all the management factors were applied at the enhanced level while only planting 79,000 plants ha-1. Conversely, kernel weight was the lightest when increasing population to 109,000 plants ha-1 while all other factors were applied at the standard level. The yield contribution of each factor was generally greater when applied in combination with all other enhanced factors than when added individually to the standard input system. Additionally, the full value of high-input agronomic management was only realized when matched with greater plant density.

Dataset Information

Bayesian approach for maize yield response to plant density from both agronomic and economic viewpoints in North America.

Publications

Bayesian approach for maize yield response to plant density from both agronomic and economic viewpoints in North America.

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