Dataset Information

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017. METHODS:We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due to physical violence and self-harm from firearms for Brazil to analyze the association between deaths by firearms and explanatory variables. RESULTS:Deaths from firearms increased in Brazil from 25,819 in 1990 to 48,493 in 2017. Firearm mortality rates were higher among men and in the 20-24 age group; the rate was 20 times higher than for women in the same age group. Homicide rates increased during the study period, while mortality rates for suicides and accidental deaths decreased. The group of Brazilian federation units with the highest firearm collection rate (median = 7.5) showed reductions in the rate of total violent deaths by firearms. In contrast, the group with the lowest firearm collection rate (median = 2.0) showed an increase in firearm deaths from 2000 to 2017. An increase in the rate of voluntary return of firearms was associated with a reduction in mortality rates of unintentional firearm deaths (r = -0.364, p < 0.001). An increase in socio-demographic index (SDI) was associated with a reduction in all firearm death rates (r = -0.266, p = 0.008). An increase in the composite index of firearms seized or collected was associated with a reduction in rates of deaths by firearm in the subgroup of females, children, and the elderly (r = -0.269, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS:There was a change in the trend of firearms deaths after the beginning of the collection of weapons in 2004. Federation units that collected more guns have reduced rates of violent firearm deaths.

SUBMITTER: Malta DC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7525968 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

Malta Deborah Carvalho DC Soares Filho Adauto Martins AM Pinto Isabella Vitral IV de Souza Minayo Maria Cecília MC Lima Cheila Marina CM Machado Ísis Eloah ÍE Teixeira Renato Azeredo RA Neto Otaliba Libânio Morais OLM Ladeira Roberto Marini RM Merchan-Hamann Edgar E de Souza Maria de Fatima Marinho MFM Vasconcelos Cíntia Honório CH Vidotti Carlos Cezar Flores CCF Cousin Ewerton E Glenn Scott S Bisignano Catherine C Chew Adrienne A Ribeiro Antonio Luiz AL Naghavi Mohsen M

Population health metrics 20200930 Suppl 1

<h4>Background</h4>Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017.<h4>Methods</h4>We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due ...[more]

PMID: 32993706

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Project description:ImportanceUnderstanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.ObjectiveTo estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.Design, setting, and participantsThis study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.ExposuresFirearm ownership and access.Main outcomes and measuresCause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.ResultsWorldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35).Conclusions and relevanceThis study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be an important cause of fatal and non-fatal burden in Brazil. In this study, we present estimates for TB burden in Brazil from 1990 to 2017 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017). METHODS:This descriptive study used GBD 2017 findings to report years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB in Brazil by sex, age group, HIV status, and Brazilian states, from 1990 to 2017. We also present the TB burden attributable to independent risk factors such as smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Results are reported in absolute number and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS:In 2017, the number of DALYs due to TB (HIV-negative and HIV-positive combined) in Brazil was 284,323 (95% UI: 240,269-349,265). Among HIV-negative individuals, the number of DALYs was 196,366 (95% UI: 189,645-202,394), while 87,957 DALYs (95% UI: 50,624-146,870) were estimated among HIV-positive individuals. Between 1990 and 2017, the absolute number and age-standardized rates of DALYs due to TB at the national level decreased by 47.0% and 68.5%, respectively. In 2017, the sex-age-specific TB burden was highest among males and in children under-1 year and the age groups 45-59 years. The Brazilian states with the highest age-standardized DALY rates in 2017 were Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, and Amazonas. Age-standardized DALY rates decreased for all 27 Brazilian states between 1990 and 2017. Alcohol use accounted for 47.5% of national DALYs due to TB among HIV-negative individuals in 2017, smoking for 17.9%, and diabetes for 7.7%. CONCLUSIONS:GBD 2017 results show that, despite the remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates during the period, TB remains as an important and preventable cause of health lost to due premature death and disability in Brazil. The findings reinforce the importance of strengthening TB control strategies in Brazil through integrated and multisectoral actions that enable the access to prevention, early diagnosis, and timely treatment, with emphasis on high-risk groups and populations most vulnerable to the disease in the country.

Project description:BackgroundSepsis is life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection. It is considered a major cause of health loss, but data for the global burden of sepsis are limited. As a syndrome caused by underlying infection, sepsis is not part of standard Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimates. Accurate estimates are important to inform and monitor health policy interventions, allocation of resources, and clinical treatment initiatives. We estimated the global, regional, and national incidence of sepsis and mortality from this disorder using data from GBD 2017.MethodsWe used multiple cause-of-death data from 109 million individual death records to calculate mortality related to sepsis among each of the 282 underlying causes of death in GBD 2017. The percentage of sepsis-related deaths by underlying GBD cause in each location worldwide was modelled using mixed-effects linear regression. Sepsis-related mortality for each age group, sex, location, GBD cause, and year (1990-2017) was estimated by applying modelled cause-specific fractions to GBD 2017 cause-of-death estimates. We used data for 8·7 million individual hospital records to calculate in-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality, stratified by underlying GBD cause. In-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality was modelled for each location using linear regression, and sepsis incidence was estimated by applying modelled case-fatality to sepsis-related mortality estimates.FindingsIn 2017, an estimated 48·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·9-62·9) incident cases of sepsis were recorded worldwide and 11·0 million (10·1-12·0) sepsis-related deaths were reported, representing 19·7% (18·2-21·4) of all global deaths. Age-standardised sepsis incidence fell by 37·0% (95% UI 11·8-54·5) and mortality decreased by 52·8% (47·7-57·5) from 1990 to 2017. Sepsis incidence and mortality varied substantially across regions, with the highest burden in sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, south Asia, east Asia, and southeast Asia.InterpretationDespite declining age-standardised incidence and mortality, sepsis remains a major cause of health loss worldwide and has an especially high health-related burden in sub-Saharan Africa.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the University of Pittsburgh, the British Columbia Children's Hospital Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.

Project description:BackgroundHypertension remains the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide, and its impact in Brazil should be assessed in order to better address the issue. We aimed to describe trends in prevalence and burden of disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥ 25 years old according to sex and federal units (FU) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment developed for the GBD study to estimate trends in attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), by sex, and FU for HSBP from 1990 to 2017. This study included 14 HSBP-outcome pairs. HSBP was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg for prevalence estimates, and a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 110-115 mmHg was considered for disease burden. We estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs attributed to HSBP. We also explored the drivers of trends in HSBP burden, as well as the correlation between disease burden and sociodemographic development index (SDI).ResultsIn Brazil, the prevalence of HSBP is 18.9% (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 18.5-19.3%), with an annual 0.4% increase rate, while age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP decreased from 189.2 (95%UI 168.5-209.2) deaths to 104.8 (95%UI 94.9-114.4) deaths per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017. In spite of that, the total number of deaths attributable to HSBP increased 53.4% and HSBP raised from 3rd to 1st position, as the leading risk factor for deaths during the period. Regarding total DALYs, HSBP raised from 4th in 1990 to 2nd cause in 2017. The main driver of change of HSBP burden is population aging. Across FUs, the reduction in the age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP correlated with higher SDI.ConclusionsWhile HSBP prevalence shows an increasing trend, age-standardized death and DALY rates are decreasing in Brazil, probably as results of successful public policies for CVD secondary prevention and control, but suboptimal control of its determinants. Reduction was more significant in FUs with higher SDI, suggesting that the effect of health policies was heterogeneous. Moreover, HSBP has become the main risk factor for death in Brazil, mainly due to population aging.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Availability of data to assess the population health and provision and quality of health care in Saudi Arabia has been lacking. In 2010, Saudi Arabia began a major investment and transformation programme in the health-care sector. Here we assess the impact of this investment era on mortality, health loss, risk factors, and health-care services in the country. METHODS:We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to describe the levels and temporal patterns in deaths, health loss, risk factors, and health-care access and quality in the Saudi Arabian population during 1990-2010 (before the health-care investments and reform) and 2010-17 (during health-care investments and reform). We also compared patterns in health outcomes between these periods with those in the north Africa and the Middle East GBD region and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. FINDINGS:Age-standardised mortality in Saudi Arabia decreased from 1990 to 2010 (annualised rate of change of -0·58%), and this decrease was further accelerated from 2010 to 2017 (-2·20%). The north Africa and the Middle East GBD region also had decreases in mortality during these periods, but for 2010-17 the decrease was not as low as in Saudi Arabia (-1·29%). Transport injuries decreased from third ranked cause of disability-adjusted life-years in 2010 to fifth ranked cause in 2017 in Saudi Arabia, below cardiovascular diseases (ranked first) and musculoskeletal disorders (ranked second). Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to mental disorders, substance use disorders, neoplasms, and neurological disorders consistently increased over the periods 1990-2010 and 2010-17. Between 1990 and 2017, attributable YLDs due to metabolic, behavioural, and environmental or occupational risk factors remained almost unchanged in Saudi Arabia, with high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose concentration, and drug use increasing across all age groups. Health-care Access and Quality (HAQ) Index levels increased in Saudi Arabia during this period with similar patterns to the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the north Africa and the Middle East GBD region. INTERPRETATION:Decreases in mortality continued at greater rates in Saudi Arabia during the period of 2010-17 than in 1990-2010. HAQ Index levels have also improved. Public health policy makers in Saudi Arabia need to increase efforts to address preventable risk factors that are major contributors to the burden of ill health and disability. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundHealth system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.MethodsThe main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.FindingsGlobally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.InterpretationKidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dataset Information

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

Publications

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

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