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Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Population aging will pose huge challenges for healthcare systems and will require a promotion of positive attitudes towards older people and the encouragement of careers in geriatrics to attract young professionals into the field and to meet the needs of a rapidly growing number of old-aged patients. We describe the current demographic profile of hospital care use in Denmark and make projections for changes in the patient profile up to 2050. METHODS:The Danish population in 2013 (N = 5.63 million) was followed up for inpatient and emergency admissions recorded in Danish hospitals in 2013 using population-based registers. We combined age- and sex-specific hospital care use in 2013 with official population estimates to forecast the profile of hospital days up to 2050 with respect to age and sex. RESULTS:The total number of hospital days per year is projected to increase by 42% between 2013 and 2050, from 4.66 to 6.72 million days. While small changes are projected for the population aged 0-69, the largest change is projected to occur for the population aged 70+. The 2013 levels were 0.82 and 0.93 million days for men and women aged 70+, respectively. By 2050, these levels are projected to have reached 1.94 and 1.84 million days. While the population aged 70+ accounted for 37.5% of all days in 2013, its contribution is projected to increase to 56.2% by 2050. CONCLUSION:Our study shows one possible scenario for changes in the hospital days due to population aging by 2050: Assuming no changes in hospital care use over the forecast period, the absolute contribution of individuals aged 70+ to the total hospital days will more than double, and the relative contribution of persons aged 70+ will account for nearly 60% of all hospital days by 2050, being largest among men.

SUBMITTER: Oksuzyan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7526879 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050.

Oksuzyan Anna A Höhn Andreas A Krabbe Pedersen Jacob J Rau Roland R Lindahl-Jacobsen Rune R Christensen Kaare K

PloS one 20200930 9

<h4>Background</h4>Population aging will pose huge challenges for healthcare systems and will require a promotion of positive attitudes towards older people and the encouragement of careers in geriatrics to attract young professionals into the field and to meet the needs of a rapidly growing number of old-aged patients. We describe the current demographic profile of hospital care use in Denmark and make projections for changes in the patient profile up to 2050.<h4>Methods</h4>The Danish populati ...[more]

PMID: 32997671

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Project description:IntroductionThere is a growing drive to improve the heterogeneity of medical school cohorts. However, those from lower socio-economic groups remain under-represented. Understanding the methods used by applicants to prepare for medical school selection, and the challenges they face with respect to opportunities and access, may provide important insights to this lack of diversity. This research considered the influence of socio-demographic background on preparation for medical school selection and on the successful offer of a place.MethodsAll eligible applicants to a large UK medical school were invited to complete an anonymous online survey (international and mature applicants excluded), detailing demographic data and experiences of preparing for selection and challenges faced (n = 1885). Selection outcomes across all UK medical schools were examined for consenting students (n = 955). Univariate and multivariate analyses explored the associations of preparatory activities and demographic data with subsequent offer of a place at a UK medical school.ResultsThe survey response rate was 66.4%. Clinical work experience (hospital or general practice), fee-based courses for admissions tests and school preparation courses for interview were activities significantly associated with the offer of a place (P < .05). Those attending independent (private) schools most frequently reported school support and fee-based courses to support preparation (P < .01). Applicants from state non-selective (SNS) schools and lower socio-economic groups more frequently reported challenges in accessing fee-based support, school interview courses and clinical work experience (P ≤ .02).DiscussionClinical work experience, commercial courses for admissions tests and school-based support for interview represent areas of preparation that are associated with success. However, they also represent areas that are more challenging to access for demographic groups traditionally under-represented in medicine. Addressing complex issues of fairness in highly selective higher education settings can appear an insurmountable task. These preparatory activities represent key areas for applicants, schools and institutions to explore and address.

Dataset Information

Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050.

Publications

Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050.

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