Dataset Information

Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open-access online tool that estimates the chance for adverse postoperative outcomes. The risk is estimated based on 21 patient-related variables and customized for specific surgical procedures. The purpose of this monocentric retrospective study is to validate its predictive value in an Italian emergency setting. METHODS:From January to December 2018, 317 patients underwent surgical procedures for acute cholecystitis (n?=?103), appendicitis (n?=?83), gastrointestinal perforation (n?=?45), and intestinal obstruction (n?=?86). Patients' personal risk was obtained and divided by the average risk to calculate a personal risk ratio (RR). Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) and Brier score were measured to assess both the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model. RESULTS:The AUC was 0.772 (95%CI 0.722-0.817, p??1.24, RR?>?1.52, and RR?>?2.63 predicted the onset of serious complications (sensitivity?=?60.47%, specificity?=?64.07%; NPV?=?81%), death (sensitivity?=?82.76%, specificity?=?62.85%; NPV?=?97%), and discharge to nursing or rehab facility (sensitivity?=?80.00%, specificity?=?69.12%; NPV?=?95%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The calculator appears to be accurate in predicting adverse postoperative outcomes in our emergency setting. A RR cutoff provides a much more practical method to forecast the onset of a specific type of complication in a single patient.

SUBMITTER: Scotton G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7527359 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study.

Scotton Giovanni G Del Zotto Giulio G Bernardi Laura L Zucca Annalisa A Terranova Susanna S Fracon Stefano S Paiano Lucia L Cosola Davide D Biloslavo Alan A de Manzini Nicolò N

World journal of surgery 20200724 11

<h4>Background</h4>The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open-access online tool that estimates the chance for adverse postoperative outcomes. The risk is estimated based on 21 patient-related variables and customized for specific surgical procedures. The purpose of this monocentric retrospective study is to validate its predictive value in an Italian emergency setting.<h4>Methods</h4>From January to December 2018, 317 patients underwent surgical procedures for acute cholecystitis ( ...[more]

PMID: 32710123

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Project description:The aim of this study was to evaluate the benefit of adding hypoalbuminemia to the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator when predicting postoperative outcomes in colorectal cancer patients.The ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator offers qualified risk evaluation in surgical decision-making and informed patient consent. To date, malnutrition defined as hypoalbuminemia, an important independent surgical risk factor in colorectal cancer, is not included.This is a retrospective, multi-institutional study of ACS-NSQIP patients (n?=?18,532) who received colorectal surgery from 2009 to 2012. Models were constructed for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity using the risk factors of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator before and after adding hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor. The 2 models' performance was then compared using c-statistics and Brier scores. The ACS-NSQIP database in 2008 was used for validation of the created models.The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (27.8%) is higher in colorectal cancer, when compared with other most common cancers. In univariate analyses, hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with postoperative mortality and morbidity in colorectal cancer patients. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, 15 postoperative complications, including mortality and serious morbidities, were significantly predicted by hypoalbuminemia. Most of the models with hypoalbuminemia showed better performance and validation in predicting postoperative complications than those without hypoalbuminemia.In colorectal cancer, hypoalbuminemia, with levels below 3.5?g/dL, serves as an excellent assessment tool and preoperative predictor of postoperative outcomes. When combined with hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor, the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator offers more accurate information and estimation of surgical risks to patients and surgeons when choosing treatment options.

Project description:BackgroundSeventy percent of surgical procedures are currently performed in the outpatient setting. Although the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Classification ability to predict risk has been evaluated for in-patient surgeries, an evaluation in outpatient surgeries has yet to be performed. The major goal of the current study is to determine if the ASA classification is an independent predictor for morbidity and mortality for outpatient surgeries.MethodsThe 2005 through 2016 NSQIP Participant Use Data Files were queried to extract all patients scheduled for outpatient surgery. ASA PS class was the primary independent variable of interest. The primary outcome was 30-day medical complications, defined as having one or more of the following postoperative outcomes: (1) deep vein thrombosis, (2) pulmonary embolism, (3) reintubation, (4) failure to wean from ventilator, (5) renal insufficiency, (6) renal failure, (7) stroke, (8) cardiac arrest, (9) myocardial infarction, (10) pneumonia, (11) urinary tract infection, (12) systemic sepsis or septic shock. Mortality was also evaluated as a separate outcome.ResultsA total of 2,089,830 cases were included in the study. 24,777 (1.19%) patients had medical complications and 1,701 (0.08%) died within 30 days. ASA PS IV patients had a much greater chance of dying when compared to healthy patients, OR (95%CI) of 89 (55 to 143), P < 0.001. Nonetheless, over 30,000 ASA PS IV patients had surgery in the outpatient setting. Multivariable analysis demonstrated a stepwise independent association between ASA PS class and medical complications (C statistic = 0.70), mortality (C statistic = 0.74) and readmissions (C statistic = 0.67). Risk stratifying ability was maintained across surgical procedures and anesthesia techniques.ConclusionsASA PS class is a simple risk stratification tool for surgeries in the outpatient setting. Patients with higher ASA PS classes subsequently developed medical complications or mortality at a greater frequency than patients with lower ASA PS class after outpatient surgery. Our results suggest that the ambulatory setting may not be able to match the needs of high-risk patients.

Project description:Introduction South Africa has the world's largest antiretroviral treatment programme, which may contribute to the adverse drug reaction (ADR) burden. We aimed to determine the proportion of adult non-trauma emergency unit (EU) presentations attributable to ADRs and to characterise ADR-related EU presentations, stratified according to HIV status, to determine the contribution of drugs used in management of HIV and its complications to ADR-related EU presentations, and identify factors associated with ADR-related EU presentation. Methods We conducted a retrospective folder review on a random 1.7% sample of presentations over a 12-month period in 2014/2015 to the EUs of two hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. We identified potential ADRs with the help of a trigger tool. A multidisciplinary panel assessed potential ADRs for causality, severity, and preventability. Results We included 1010 EU presentations and assessed 80/1010 (7.9%) as ADR-related, including 20/239 (8.4%) presentations among HIV-positive attendees. Among HIV-positive EU attendees with ADRs 17/20 (85%) were admitted, versus 22/60 (37%) of HIV-negative/unknown EU attendees. Only 5/21 (24%) ADRs in HIV-positive EU attendees were preventable, versus 24/63 (38%) in HIV-negative/unknown EU attendees. On multivariate analysis, only increasing drug count was associated with ADR-related EU presentation (adjusted odds ratio 1.10 per additional drug, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.18), adjusted for age, sex, HIV status, comorbidity, and hospital. Conclusions ADRs caused a significant proportion of EU presentations, similar to findings from other resource-limited settings. The spectrum of ADR manifestations in our EUs reflects South Africa's colliding epidemics of infectious and non-communicable diseases. ADRs among HIV-positive EU attendees were more severe and less likely to be preventable. Highlights • Medicine safety is an understudied field in Africa.• Africa has high HIV prevalence and rapid scale-up of HIV treatment programmes.• Antiretrovirals may contribute to the burden of drug-related harm.• We describe the burden of adverse drug reactions to two African emergency units.• We also describe the contribution of HIV and ART to this ADR burden.

Project description:BackgroundAdverse drug event (ADEs) are a significant cause of emergency department (ED) visits and consequent hospitalization. Preventing ADEs and their related ED visits in outpatients remains a public health safety challenge. In this context, the aims of the present study were to describe the frequency, seriousness and preventability of outpatients' ADE-related ED visits and hospitalizations in the Italian general population, and to identify the presence of potential predictors of ADE-related hospitalization.MethodsWe performed a nationwide, multicentre, observational, retrospective study based on reports of suspected ADEs collected between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2018 in 94 EDs involved in the MEREAFaPS project. Patients' demographic characteristics, their clinical status, suspected and concomitant drugs, ADE description, and its degree of seriousness, were collected. Causality and preventability were assessed using validated algorithms, and logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the reporting odds ratios (RORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ADE-related hospitalization, considering the following covariates: age, sex, ethnicity, number of implicated medications, parenteral administration, presence of interaction, therapeutic error, and/or complementary and alternative medicines (CAM).ResultsWithin 12 years, 61,855 reports of suspected ADE were collected, of which 18,918 (30.6%) resulted in hospitalization (ADE defined as serious). Patients were mostly female (56.6%) and Caucasians (87.7%), with a mean age of 57.5 ± 25.0 years. 58% of patients were treated with more than two drugs, and 47% of ADEs leading to hospitalization were preventable. Anticoagulants, antibiotics, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were the most frequently implicated agents for ED visits and/or hospitalization, which included clinically significant ADEs, such as haemorrhage for anticoagulants, moderate to severe allergic reactions for antibiotics, and dermatologic reactions and gastrointestinal disturbances for NSAIDs. Older age (1.54 [1.48-1.60]), higher number of concomitantly taken drugs (2.22 [2.14-2.31]), the presence of drug-drug interactions (1.52 [1.28-1.81]), and therapeutic error (1.54 [1.34-1.78]), were significantly associated with an increased risk of hospitalization.ConclusionOur long-term active pharmacovigilance study in ED provided a valid estimation of ADE-related hospitalization in a representative sample of the Italian general population and can suggest further focus on medication safety in outpatients, in order to early recognise and prevent ADEs.

Dataset Information

Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study.

Publications

Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study.

Similar Datasets

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