Dataset Information

Influenza versus COVID-19 cases among influenza-like illness patients in travelers from Wuhan to Hong Kong in January 2020.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei, China, followed the seasonal influenza epidemic. Since some COVID-19 cases may have been misdiagnosed as seasonal influenza in January 2020, before testing capacity was adequate, it is relevant to study the proportions of influenza and COVID-19 cases among influenza-like-illness (ILI) patients and their temporal pattern.

Results

This study analyzed the record of the ILI patients with a recent travel history to Wuhan who arrived in Hong Kong between 31 December 2019 and 21 January 2020. We found that the proportion of COVID-19 cases among the total ILI patients is much smaller than a study among ILI in Wuhan. This difference in proportion could be due to the difference in sampling. We argue that it is essential to consider both samples when inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from ILI patients.

SUBMITTER: Tao J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7528737 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Influenza versus COVID-19 cases among influenza-like illness patients in travelers from Wuhan to Hong Kong in January 2020.

Tao Jun J Gao Huizhi H Zhu Shuying S Yang Lin L He Daihai D

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20201001

<h4>Objective</h4>The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei, China, followed the seasonal influenza epidemic. Since some COVID-19 cases may have been misdiagnosed as seasonal influenza in January 2020, before testing capacity was adequate, it is relevant to study the proportions of influenza and COVID-19 cases among influenza-like-illness (ILI) patients and their temporal pattern.<h4>Results</h4>This study analyzed the record of the ILI patients with a recent travel history to Wuhan who arrived in H ...[more]

PMID: 33011280

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Project description:BackgroundChickenpox is a common contagious disease that remains an important public health issue worldwide. Over 90% of unvaccinated individuals become infected, but infection occurs at different ages in different parts of the world. Many people have been infected by 20 to 30 years of age in China, and adults and pregnant women who become infected often develop severe infection. Furthermore, a mortality rate of 2-3 per 100,000 infected persons has been reported. In this study, we explore the temperature-dependent transition of patterns of reported chickenpox cases in two large subtropical climate cities, Wuhan and Hong Kong, China, to aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effects of climatic changes on epidemiology of chickenpox in China.MethodsWe used a time series analysis comprising a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Specifically, the following time series data were analyzed: data of reported chickenpox cases and meteorological data, including the mean temperature, relative humidity and total rainfall in Wuhan and Hong Kong from January 2008 to June 2015.ResultsThe time series data of chickenpox for both Wuhan and Hong Kong have two peaks per year, one in winter and another in spring, indicating a bimodal cycle. To investigate the source of the bimodal cycle of the chickenpox data, we defined the contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q 1, and the 6-month cycle, Q 2, as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle and a 6-month cycle, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time-series data. The Q 1 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were positively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of each city. Conversely, the Q 2 values of Wuhan and Hong Kong were negatively correlated with the annual mean temperature and rainfall of Wuhan and Hong Kong.ConclusionOur results showed that the mean temperature and rainfall have a significant influence on the incidence of chickenpox, and might be important predictors of chickenpox incidence in Wuhan and Hong Kong.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 has plagued the globe, with multiple SARS-CoV-2 clusters hinting at its evolving epidemiology. Since the disease course is governed by important epidemiological parameters, including containment delays (time between symptom onset and mandatory isolation) and serial intervals (time between symptom onsets of infector-infectee pairs), understanding their temporal changes helps to guide interventions.ObjectiveThis study aims to characterize the epidemiology of the first two epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong by doing the following: (1) estimating the containment delays, serial intervals, effective reproductive number (Rt), and proportion of asymptomatic cases; (2) identifying factors associated with the temporal changes of the containment delays and serial intervals; and (3) depicting COVID-19 transmission by age assortativity and types of social settings.MethodsWe retrieved the official case series and the Apple mobility data of Hong Kong from January-August 2020. The empirical containment delays and serial intervals were fitted to theoretical distributions, and factors associated with their temporal changes were quantified in terms of percentage contribution (the percentage change in the predicted outcome from multivariable regression models relative to a predefined comparator). Rt was estimated with the best fitted distribution for serial intervals.ResultsThe two epidemic waves were characterized by imported cases and clusters of local cases, respectively. Rt peaked at 2.39 (wave 1) and 3.04 (wave 2). The proportion of asymptomatic cases decreased from 34.9% (0-9 years) to 12.9% (≥80 years). Log-normal distribution best fitted the 1574 containment delays (mean 5.18 [SD 3.04] days) and the 558 serial intervals (17 negative; mean 4.74 [SD 4.24] days). Containment delays decreased with involvement in a cluster (percentage contribution: 10.08%-20.73%) and case detection in the public health care sector (percentage contribution: 27.56%, 95% CI 22.52%-32.33%). Serial intervals decreased over time (6.70 days in wave 1 versus 4.35 days in wave 2) and with tertiary transmission or beyond (percentage contribution: -50.75% to -17.31%), but were lengthened by mobility (percentage contribution: 0.83%). Transmission within the same age band was high (18.1%). Households (69.9%) and social settings (20.3%) were where transmission commonly occurred.ConclusionsFirst, the factors associated with reduced containment delays suggested government-enacted interventions were useful for achieving outbreak control and should be further encouraged. Second, the shorter serial intervals associated with the composite mobility index calls for empirical surveys to disentangle the role of different contact dimensions in disease transmission. Third, the presymptomatic transmission and asymptomatic cases underscore the importance of remaining vigilant about COVID-19. Fourth, the time-varying epidemiological parameters suggest the need to incorporate their temporal variations when depicting the epidemic trajectory. Fifth, the high proportion of transmission events occurring within the same age group supports the ban on gatherings outside of households, and underscores the need for residence-centered preventive measures.

Dataset Information

Influenza versus COVID-19 cases among influenza-like illness patients in travelers from Wuhan to Hong Kong in January 2020.

Objective

Results

Publications

Influenza versus COVID-19 cases among influenza-like illness patients in travelers from Wuhan to Hong Kong in January 2020.

Similar Datasets

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