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Geospatial analysis of dengue emergence in rural areas in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Dengue is a major cause of acute febrile illness in Sri Lanka. Dengue has historically been considered an urban disease. In 2012-2013, we documented that acute dengue was surprisingly associated with self-reported rural residence in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka. METHODS:Patients admitted with an acute febrile illness were enrolled from June 2012-May 2013 in a cross-sectional surveillance study at the largest tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province. Acute dengue was diagnosed by serology and virology testing. Site visits were performed to collect residential geographical coordinates. Spatial variation in odds of acute dengue was modeled using a spatial generalized additive model predicted onto a grid of coordinate pairs covering the Southern Province. RESULTS:Of 800 patients, 333 (41.6%) had laboratory-confirmed acute dengue. Dengue was spatially heterogeneous (local probability of acute dengue 0.26 to 0.42). There were higher than average odds of acute dengue in the rural northeast of the Southern Province and lower than average odds in the urbanized southwest of the Southern Province, including the city Galle. CONCLUSIONS:Our study further affirms the emergence of dengue in rural southern Sri Lanka and highlights both the need for real-time geospatial analyses to optimize public health activities as well as the importance of strengthening dengue surveillance in non-urban areas.

SUBMITTER: Mutucumarana CP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7528758 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geospatial analysis of dengue emergence in rural areas in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka.

Mutucumarana Charmaine P CP Bodinayake Champica K CK Nagahawatte Ajith A Devasiri Vasantha V Kurukulasooriya Ruvini R Anuradha Thamali T De Silva Aruna Dharshan AD Janko Mark M MM Østbye Truls T Gubler Duane J DJ Woods Christopher W CW Reller Megan E ME Tillekeratne L Gayani LG Lantos Paul M PM

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 20200601 6

<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is a major cause of acute febrile illness in Sri Lanka. Dengue has historically been considered an urban disease. In 2012-2013, we documented that acute dengue was surprisingly associated with self-reported rural residence in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients admitted with an acute febrile illness were enrolled from June 2012-May 2013 in a cross-sectional surveillance study at the largest tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province. Acute d ...[more]

PMID: 31885050

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Project description:BackgroundDengue is a frequent cause of acute febrile illness with an expanding global distribution. Since the 1960s, dengue in Sri Lanka has been documented primarily along the heavily urbanized western coast with periodic shifting of serotypes. Outbreaks from 2005-2008 were attributed to a new clade of DENV-3 and more recently to a newly introduced genotype of DENV-1. In 2007, we conducted etiologic surveillance of acute febrile illness in the Southern Province and confirmed dengue in only 6.3% of febrile patients, with no cases of DENV-1 identified. To re-evaluate the importance of dengue as an etiology of acute febrile illness in this region, we renewed fever surveillance in the Southern Province to newly identify and characterize dengue.Methodology/principal findingsA cross-sectional surveillance study was conducted at the largest tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province from 2012-2013. A total of 976 patients hospitalized with acute undifferentiated fever were enrolled, with 64.3% male and 31.4% children. Convalescent blood samples were collected from 877 (89.6%). Dengue virus isolation, dengue RT-PCR, and paired IgG ELISA were performed. Acute dengue was confirmed as the etiology for 388 (39.8%) of 976 hospitalizations, with most cases (291, 75.0%) confirmed virologically and by multiple methods. Among 351 cases of virologically confirmed dengue, 320 (91.2%) were due to DENV-1. Acute dengue was associated with self-reported rural residence, travel, and months having greatest rainfall. Sequencing of selected dengue viruses revealed that sequences were most closely related to those described from China and Southeast Asia, not nearby India.Conclusions/significanceWe describe the first epidemic of DENV-1 in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka in a population known to be susceptible to this serotype because of prior study. Dengue accounted for 40% of acute febrile illnesses in the current study. The emergence of DENV-1 as the foremost serotype in this densely populated but agrarian population highlights the changing epidemiology of dengue and the need for continued surveillance and prevention.

Dataset Information

Geospatial analysis of dengue emergence in rural areas in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka.

Publications

Geospatial analysis of dengue emergence in rural areas in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka.

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