Machine Learning Classifier Models: The Future for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Phenotyping?
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: McNicholas B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7528797 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Rationale: Two distinct phenotypes of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with differential clinical outcomes and responses to randomly assigned treatment have consistently been identified in randomized controlled trial cohorts using latent class analysis. Plasma biomarkers, key components in phenotype identification, currently lack point-of-care assays and represent a barrier to the clinical implementation of phenotypes.Objectives: The objective of this study was to develop models to classify ARDS phenotypes using readily available clinical data only.Methods: Three randomized controlled trial cohorts served as the training data set (ARMA [High vs. Low Vt], ALVEOLI [Assessment of Low Vt and Elevated End-Expiratory Pressure to Obviate Lung Injury], and FACTT [Fluids and Catheter Treatment Trial]; n = 2,022), and a fourth served as the validation data set (SAILS [Statins for Acutely Injured Lungs from Sepsis]; n = 745). A gradient-boosted machine algorithm was used to develop classifier models using 24 variables (demographics, vital signs, laboratory, and respiratory variables) at enrollment. In two secondary analyses, the ALVEOLI and FACTT cohorts each, individually, served as the validation data set, and the remaining combined cohorts formed the training data set for each analysis. Model performance was evaluated against the latent class analysis-derived phenotype.Measurements and Main Results: For the primary analysis, the model accurately classified the phenotypes in the validation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.96). Using a probability cutoff of 0.5 to assign class, inflammatory biomarkers (IL-6, IL-8, and sTNFR-1; P < 0.0001) and 90-day mortality (38% vs. 24%; P = 0.0002) were significantly higher in the hyperinflammatory phenotype as classified by the model. Model accuracy was similar when ALVEOLI (AUC, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.96) and FACTT (AUC, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.95) were used as the validation cohorts. Significant treatment interactions were observed with the clinical classifier model-assigned phenotypes in both ALVEOLI (P = 0.0113) and FACTT (P = 0.0072) cohorts.Conclusions: ARDS phenotypes can be accurately identified using machine learning models based on readily available clinical data and may enable rapid phenotype identification at the bedside.
| S-EPMC7528785 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAcute Respiratory Distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common complication of Acute Pancreatitis (AP) and is associated with high mortality. This study used Machine Learning (ML) to predict ARDS in patients with AP at admission.MethodsThe authors retrospectively analyzed the data from patients with AP from January 2017 to August 2022. Clinical and laboratory parameters with significant differences between patients with and without ARDS were screened by univariate analysis. Then, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ensembles of Decision Trees (EDTs), Bayesian Classifier (BC), and nomogram models were constructed and optimized after feature screening based on these parameters. Five-fold cross-validation was used to train each model. A test set was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the four models.ResultsA total of 83 (18.04%) of 460 patients with AP developed ARDS. Thirty-one features with significant differences between the groups with and without ARDS in the training set were used for modeling. The Partial Pressure of Oxygen (PaO2), C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lactic acid, Ca2+, the neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, white blood cell count, and amylase were identified as the optimal subset of features. The BC algorithm had the best predictive performance with the highest AUC value (0.891) than SVM (0.870), EDTs (0.813), and the nomogram (0.874) in the test set. The EDT algorithm achieved the highest accuracy (0.891), precision (0.800), and F1 score (0.615), but the lowest FDR (0.200) and the second-highest NPV (0.902).ConclusionsA predictive model of ARDS complicated by AP was successfully developed based on ML. Predictive performance was evaluated by a test set, for which BC showed superior predictive performance and EDTs could be a more promising prediction tool for larger samples.
| S-EPMC10199163 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Existing prediction models for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) require manual chart abstraction and have only fair performance-limiting their suitability for driving clinical interventions. We sought to develop a machine learning approach for the prediction of ARDS that (a) leverages electronic health record (EHR) data, (b) is fully automated, and (c) can be applied at clinically relevant time points throughout a patient's stay. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We trained a risk stratification model for ARDS using a cohort of 1,621 patients with moderate hypoxia from a single center in 2016, of which 51 patients developed ARDS. We tested the model in a temporally distinct cohort of 1,122 patients from 2017, of which 27 patients developed ARDS. Gold standard diagnosis of ARDS was made by intensive care trained physicians during retrospective chart review. We considered both linear and non-linear approaches to learning the model. The best model used L2-logistic regression with 984 features extracted from the EHR. For patients observed in the hospital at least six hours who then developed moderate hypoxia, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73-0.88). Selecting a threshold based on the 85th percentile of risk, the model had a sensitivity of 56% (95% CI: 35%, 74%), specificity of 86% (95% CI: 85%, 87%) and positive predictive value of 9% (95% CI: 5%, 14%), identifying a population at four times higher risk for ARDS than other patients with moderate hypoxia and 17 times the risk of hospitalized adults. CONCLUSIONS:We developed an ARDS prediction model based on EHR data with good discriminative performance. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of a machine learning approach to risk stratifying patients for ARDS solely from data extracted automatically from the EHR.
| S-EPMC6438573 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Heterogeneous patient populations, complex pharmacology and low recruitment rates in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) have led to the failure of many clinical trials. Recently, machine learning (ML) emerged as a new technology to process and identify big data relationships, enabling a new era in clinical trial design. In this study, we designed a ML model for predictively stratifying acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients, ultimately reducing the required number of patients by increasing statistical power through cohort homogeneity. From the Philips eICU Research Institute (eRI) database, no less than 51,555 ARDS patients were extracted. We defined three subpopulations by outcome: (1) rapid death, (2) spontaneous recovery, and (3) long-stay patients. A retrospective univariate analysis identified highly predictive variables for each outcome. All 220 variables were used to determine the most accurate and generalizable model to predict long-stay patients. Multiclass gradient boosting was identified as the best-performing ML model. Whereas alterations in pH, bicarbonate or lactate proved to be strong predictors for rapid death in the univariate analysis, only the multivariate ML model was able to reliably differentiate the disease course of the long-stay outcome population (AUC of 0.77). We demonstrate the feasibility of prospective patient stratification using ML algorithms in the by far largest ARDS cohort reported to date. Our algorithm can identify patients with sufficiently long ARDS episodes to allow time for patients to respond to therapy, increasing statistical power. Further, early enrollment alerts may increase recruitment rate.
| S-EPMC8429640 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) can make cases of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) more complex, and the combination of the two can significantly worsen the prognosis. Our objective is to utilize machine learning (ML) techniques to construct models that can promptly identify the risk of AKI in ARDS patients.MethodWe obtained data regarding ARDS patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) and MIMIC-IV databases. Within the MIMIC-III dataset, we developed 11 ML prediction models. By evaluating various metrics, we visualized the importance of its features using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). We then created a more concise model using fewer variables, and optimized it using hyperparameter optimization (HPO). The model was validated using the MIMIC-IV dataset.ResultA total of 928 ARDS patients without AKI were included in the analysis from the MIMIC-III dataset, and among them, 179 (19.3%) developed AKI after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). In the MIMIC-IV dataset, there were 653 ARDS patients included in the analysis, and among them, 237 (36.3%) developed AKI. A total of 43 features were used to build the model. Among all models, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) performed the best. We used the top 10 features to build a compact model with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850, which improved to an AUC of 0.865 after the HPO. In extra validation set, XGBoost_HPO achieved an AUC of 0.854. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive prediction value (PPV), negative prediction value (NPV), and F1 score of the XGBoost_HPO model on the test set are 0.865, 0.813, 0.877, 0.578, 0.957 and 0.675, respectively. On extra validation set, they are 0.724, 0.789, 0.688, 0.590, 0.851, and 0.675, respectively.ConclusionML algorithms, especially XGBoost, are reliable for predicting AKI in ARDS patients. The compact model maintains excellent predictive ability, and the web-based calculator improves clinical convenience. This provides valuable guidance in identifying AKI in ARDS, leading to improved patient outcomes.
| S-EPMC10548692 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo identify differentially expressed genes and networks from the airway cells within 72 hours of intubation of children with and without pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. To test the use of a neutrophil transcription reporter assay to identify immunogenic responses to airway fluid from children with and without pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingThirty-six bed academic PICU.PatientsFifty-four immunocompetent children, 28 with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome, who were between 2 days to 18 years old within 72 hours of intubation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsWe applied machine learning methods to a Nanostring transcriptomics on primary airway cells and a neutrophil reporter assay to discover gene networks differentiating pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome from no pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. An analysis of moderate or severe pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome versus no or mild pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome was performed. Pathway network visualization was used to map pathways from 62 genes selected by ElasticNet associated with pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. The Janus kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription pathway emerged. Support vector machine performed best for the primary airway cells and the neutrophil reporter assay using a leave-one-out cross-validation with an area under the operating curve and 95% CI of 0.75 (0.63-0.87) and 0.80 (0.70-1.0), respectively.ConclusionsWe identified gene networks important to the pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome airway immune response using semitargeted transcriptomics from primary airway cells and a neutrophil reporter assay. These pathways will drive mechanistic investigations into pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. Further studies are needed to validate our findings and to test our models.
| S-EPMC8208445 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo develop and validate classifier models that could be used to identify patients with a high percentage of potentially recruitable lung from readily available clinical data and from single CT scan quantitative analysis at intensive care unit admission. 221 retrospectively enrolled mechanically ventilated, sedated and paralyzed patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) underwent a PEEP trial at 5 and 15 cmH2O of PEEP and two lung CT scans performed at 5 and 45 cmH2O of airway pressure. Lung recruitability was defined at first as percent change in not aerated tissue between 5 and 45 cmH2O (radiologically defined; recruiters: Δ45-5non-aerated tissue > 15%) and secondly as change in PaO2 between 5 and 15 cmH2O (gas exchange-defined; recruiters: Δ15-5PaO2 > 24 mmHg). Four machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated as classifiers of radiologically defined and gas exchange-defined lung recruiters using different models including different variables, separately or combined, of lung mechanics, gas exchange and CT data.ResultsML algorithms based on CT scan data at 5 cmH2O classified radiologically defined lung recruiters with similar AUC as ML based on the combination of lung mechanics, gas exchange and CT data. ML algorithm based on CT scan data classified gas exchange-defined lung recruiters with the highest AUC.ConclusionsML based on a single CT data at 5 cmH2O represented an easy-to-apply tool to classify ARDS patients in recruiters and non-recruiters according to both radiologically defined and gas exchange-defined lung recruitment within the first 48 h from the start of mechanical ventilation.
| S-EPMC10322807 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) commonly develops in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients and is a risk factor for poor prognosis. We designed this study to evaluate the performance of several machine learning algorithms for predicting ARDS in TBI patients. Methods: TBI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database were eligible for this study. ARDS was identified according to the Berlin definition. Included TBI patients were divided into the training cohort and the validation cohort with a ratio of 7:3. Several machine learning algorithms were utilized to develop predictive models with five-fold cross validation for ARDS including extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, Random Forest, adaptive boosting, complement naïve Bayes, and support vector machine. The performance of machine learning algorithms were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and F score. Results: 649 TBI patients from the MIMIC-III database were included with an ARDS incidence of 49.5%. The random forest performed the best in predicting ARDS in the training cohort with an AUC of 1.000. The XGBoost and AdaBoost ranked the second and the third with an AUC of 0.989 and 0.815 in the training cohort. The random forest still performed the best in predicting ARDS in the validation cohort with an AUC of 0.652. AdaBoost and XGBoost ranked the second and the third with an AUC of 0.631 and 0.620 in the validation cohort. Several mutual top features in the random forest and AdaBoost were discovered including age, initial systolic blood pressure and heart rate, Abbreviated Injury Score chest, white blood cells, platelets, and international normalized ratio. Conclusions: The random forest and AdaBoost based models have stable and good performance for predicting ARDS in TBI patients. These models could help clinicians to evaluate the risk of ARDS in early stages after TBI and consequently adjust treatment decisions.
| S-EPMC9864532 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To develop and characterize a machine learning algorithm to discriminate acute respiratory distress syndrome from other causes of respiratory failure using only ventilator waveform data.DesignRetrospective, observational cohort study.SettingAcademic medical center ICU.PatientsAdults admitted to the ICU requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, including 50 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome and 50 patients with primary indications for mechanical ventilation other than hypoxemic respiratory failure.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsPressure and flow time series data from mechanical ventilation during the first 24-hours after meeting acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria (or first 24-hr of mechanical ventilation for non-acute respiratory distress syndrome patients) were processed to extract nine physiologic features. A random forest machine learning algorithm was trained to discriminate between the patients with and without acute respiratory distress syndrome. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Analyses examined performance when the model was trained using data from the first 24 hours and tested using withheld data from either the first 24 hours (24/24 model) or 6 hours (24/6 model). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.88, 0.90, 0.71, 0.77, and 0.90 (24/24); and 0.89, 0.90, 0.75, 0.83, and 0.83 (24/6).ConclusionsUse of machine learning and physiologic information derived from raw ventilator waveform data may enable acute respiratory distress syndrome screening at early time points after intubation. This approach, combined with traditional diagnostic criteria, could improve timely acute respiratory distress syndrome recognition and enable automated clinical decision support, especially in settings with limited availability of conventional diagnostic tests and electronic health records.
| S-EPMC7803688 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS), a description specific for children with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), was proposed in the recent Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference (PALICC, 2015). This recent standardization of PARDS diagnosis is expected to aid in uniform earlier recognition of the entity, enable use of consistent management strategies and potentially increase the ease of enrollment in future PARDS clinical trials-all of which are expected to optimize outcomes in PARDS. Clinical trials in PARDS are few but ongoing studies are expected to lay the foundation for future clinical studies. The Randomized Evaluation of Sedation Titration for Respiratory Failure trial (RESTORE) trial has revealed that a goal directed sedation protocol does not reduce the duration of invasive ventilation in critically ill children. PROSpect trial is a large multi-institute clinical trial that is expected to reveal optimal ventilation strategies and patient positioning (supine vs. prone) in patients with severe PARDS. The PARDS neuromuscular blockade (NMB) study is expected to yield important information about the impact of active NMB on PARDS outcomes. Information from these studies could be used to design future clinical trials in PARDS and to lessen the anecdotal or extrapolated experiences from adult clinical studies that often guide clinical practices in PARDS management. Finally, it is expected that these definitions and management strategies will be revised periodically as our understanding of PARDS evolves. Emerging data on PARDS subtypes suggest that patient heterogeneity is an important factor in designing these clinical trials.
| S-EPMC6828784 | biostudies-literature