Dataset Information

Long-term PM_2.5 exposure and the clinical application of machine learning for predicting incident atrial fibrillation.

ABSTRACT: Clinical impact of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) air pollution on incident atrial fibrillation (AF) had not been well studied. We used integrated machine learning (ML) to build several incident AF prediction models that include average hourly measurements of PM_2.5 for the 432,587 subjects of Korean general population. We compared these incident AF prediction models using c-index, net reclassification improvement index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI). ML using the boosted ensemble method exhibited a higher c-index (0.845 [0.837-0.853]) than existing traditional regression models using CHA₂DS₂-VASc (0.654 [0.646-0.661]), CHADS₂ (0.652 [0.646-0.657]), or HATCH (0.669 [0.661-0.676]) scores (each p < 0.001) for predicting incident AF. As feature selection algorithms identified PM_2.5 as a highly important variable, we applied PM_2.5 for predicting incident AF and constructed scoring systems. The prediction performances significantly increased compared with models without PM_2.5 (c-indices: boosted ensemble ML, 0.954 [0.949-0.959]; PM-CHA₂DS₂-VASc, 0.859 [0.848-0.870]; PM-CHADS₂, 0.823 [0.810-0.836]; or PM-HATCH score, 0.849 [0.837-0.860]; each interaction, p < 0.001; NRI and IDI were also positive). ML combining readily available clinical variables and PM_2.5 data was found to predict incident AF better than models without PM_2.5 or even established risk prediction approaches in the general population exposed to high air pollution levels.

SUBMITTER: Kim IS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7530980 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Long-term PM2.5 exposure and the clinical application of machine learning for predicting incident atrial fibrillation.

Kim In-Soo IS Yang Pil-Sung PS Jang Eunsun E Jung Hyunjean H You Seng Chan SC Yu Hee Tae HT Kim Tae-Hoon TH Uhm Jae-Sun JS Pak Hui-Nam HN Lee Moon-Hyoung MH Kim Jong-Youn JY Joung Boyoung B

Scientific reports 20201001 1

Clinical impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution on incident atrial fibrillation (AF) had not been well studied. We used integrated machine learning (ML) to build several incident AF prediction models that include average hourly measurements of PM2.5 for the 432,587 subjects of Korean general population. We compared these incident AF prediction models using c-index, net reclassification improvement index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement index ...[more]

PMID: 33004983

Similar Datasets

Project description:Epidemiologic studies have found associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and adverse health effects using exposure models that incorporate monitoring data and other relevant information. Here, we use nine PM2.5 concentration models (i.e., exposure models) that span a wide range of methods to investigate i) PM2.5 concentrations in 2011, ii) potential changes in PM2.5 concentrations between 2011 and 2028 due to on-the-books regulations, and iii) PM2.5 exposure for the U.S. population and four racial/ethnic groups. The exposure models included two geophysical chemical transport models (CTMs), two interpolation methods, a satellite-derived aerosol optical depth-based method, a Bayesian statistical regression model, and three data-rich machine learning methods. We focused on annual predictions that were regridded to 12-km resolution over the conterminous U.S., but also considered 1-km predictions in sensitivity analyses. The exposure models predicted broadly consistent PM2.5 concentrations, with relatively high concentrations on average over the eastern U.S. and greater variability in the western U.S. However, differences in national concentration distributions (median standard deviation: 1.00 μg m-3) and spatial distributions over urban areas were evident. Further exploration of these differences and their implications for specific applications would be valuable. PM2.5 concentrations were estimated to decrease by about 1 μg m-3 on average due to modeled emission changes between 2011 and 2028, with decreases of more than 3 μg m-3 in areas with relatively high 2011 concentrations that were projected to experience relatively large emission reductions. Agreement among models was closer for population-weighted than uniformly weighted averages across the domain. About 50% of the population was estimated to experience PM2.5 concentrations less than 10 μg m-3 in 2011 and PM2.5 improvements of about 2 μg m-3 due to modeled emission changes between 2011 and 2028. Two inequality metrics were used to characterize differences in exposure among the four racial/ethnic groups. The metrics generally yielded consistent information and suggest that the modeled emission reductions between 2011 and 2028 would reduce absolute exposure inequality on average.

Project description:It is well recognized that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affects health adversely, yet few studies from South America have documented such associations due to the sparsity of PM2.5 measurements. Lima's topography and aging vehicular fleet results in severe air pollution with limited amounts of monitors to effectively quantify PM2.5 levels for epidemiologic studies. We developed an advanced machine learning model to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at a 1 km2 spatial resolution in Lima, Peru from 2010 to 2016. We combined aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), parameters from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and land use variables to fit a random forest model against ground measurements from 16 monitoring stations. Overall cross-validation R2 (and root mean square prediction error, RMSE) for the random forest model was 0.70 (5.97 μg/m3). Mean PM2.5 for ground measurements was 24.7 μg/m3 while mean estimated PM2.5 was 24.9 μg/m3 in the cross-validation dataset. The mean difference between ground and predicted measurements was -0.09 μg/m3 (Std.Dev. = 5.97 μg/m3), with 94.5% of observations falling within 2 standard deviations of the difference indicating good agreement between ground measurements and predicted estimates. Surface downwards solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and AOD were the most important predictors, while percent urbanization, albedo, and cloud fraction were the least important predictors. Comparison of monthly mean measurements between ground and predicted PM2.5 shows good precision and accuracy from our model. Furthermore, mean annual maps of PM2.5 show consistent lower concentrations in the coast and higher concentrations in the mountains, resulting from prevailing coastal winds blown from the Pacific Ocean in the west. Our model allows for construction of long-term historical daily PM2.5 measurements at 1 km2 spatial resolution to support future epidemiological studies.

Project description:RationalePM2.5-induced adverse effects on respiratory health may be driven by epigenetic modifications in airway cells. The potential impact of exposure duration on epigenetic alterations in the airways is not yet known.ObjectivesWe aimed to study associations of fine particulate matter PM2.5 exposure with DNA methylation in nasal cells.MethodsWe conducted nasal epigenome-wide association analyses within 503 children from Project Viva (mean age 12.9 y), and examined various exposure durations (1-day, 1-week, 1-month, 3-months and 1-year) prior to nasal sampling. We used residential addresses to estimate average daily PM2.5 at 1 km resolution. We collected nasal swabs from the anterior nares and measured DNA methylation (DNAm) using the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip. We tested 719,075 high quality autosomal CpGs using CpG-by-CpG and regional DNAm analyses controlling for multiple comparisons, and adjusted for maternal education, household smokers, child sex, race/ethnicity, BMI z-score, age, season at sample collection and cell-type heterogeneity. We further corrected for bias and genomic inflation. We tested for replication in a cohort from the Netherlands (PIAMA).ResultsIn adjusted analyses, we found 362 CpGs associated with 1-year PM2.5 (FDR < 0.05), 20 CpGs passing Bonferroni correction (P < 7.0x10-8) and 10 Differentially Methylated Regions (DMRs). In 445 PIAMA participants (mean age 16.3 years) 11 of 203 available CpGs replicated at P < 0.05. We observed differential DNAm at/near genes implicated in cell cycle, immune and inflammatory responses. There were no CpGs or regions associated with PM2.5 levels at 1-day, 1-week, or 1-month prior to sample collection, although 2 CpGs were associated with past 3-month PM2.5.ConclusionWe observed wide-spread DNAm variability associated with average past year PM2.5 exposure but we did not detect associations with shorter-term exposure. Our results suggest that nasal DNAm marks reflect chronic air pollution exposure.

Dataset Information

Long-term PM_2.5 exposure and the clinical application of machine learning for predicting incident atrial fibrillation.

Publications

Long-term PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure and the clinical application of machine learning for predicting incident atrial fibrillation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets