Dataset Information

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:We evaluated whether implementation of lockdown orders in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN). DESIGN:Observational cohort SETTING: Data were analysed from 11 primary healthcare clinics in northern KZN. PARTICIPANTS:A total of 46?523 individuals made 89?476 clinic visits during the observation period. EXPOSURE OF INTEREST:We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in clinic visitation with a focus on transitions from the prelockdown to the level 5, 4 and 3 lockdown periods. OUTCOME MEASURES:Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses, we assessed visitation for the following subcategories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases and by age and sex strata. RESULTS:We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day at the time of implementation of the level 5 lockdown (change from 90.3 to 84.6 mean visits/clinic/day, 95%?CI -16.5 to 3.1), or at the transitions to less stringent level 4 and 3 lockdown levels. We did detect a >50% reduction in child healthcare visits at the start of the level 5 lockdown from 11.9 to 4.7 visits/day (-7.1 visits/clinic/day, 95%?CI -8.9 to 5.3), both for children aged <1?year and 1-5 years, with a gradual return to prelockdown within 3?months after the first lockdown measure. In contrast, we found no drop in clinic visitation in adults at the start of the level 5 lockdown, or related to HIV care (from 37.5 to 45.6, 8.0 visits/clinic/day, 95%?CI 2.1 to 13.8). CONCLUSIONS:In rural KZN, we identified a significant, although temporary, reduction in child healthcare visitation but general resilience of adult ambulatory care provision during the first 4?months of the lockdown. Future work should explore the impacts of the circulating epidemic on primary care provision and long-term impacts of reduced child visitation on outcomes in the region.

SUBMITTER: Siedner MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7536636 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

Siedner Mark J MJ Kraemer John D JD Meyer Mark J MJ Harling Guy G Mngomezulu Thobeka T Gabela Patrick P Dlamini Siphephelo S Gareta Dickman D Majozi Nomathamsanqa N Ngwenya Nothando N Seeley Janet J Wong Emily E Iwuji Collins C Shahmanesh Maryam M Hanekom Willem W Herbst Kobus K

BMJ open 20201005 10

<h4>Objectives</h4>We evaluated whether implementation of lockdown orders in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN).<h4>Design</h4>Observational cohort SETTING: Data were analysed from 11 primary healthcare clinics in northern KZN.<h4>Participants</h4>A total of 46 523 individuals made 89 476 clinic visits during the observation period.<h4>Exposure of interest</h4>We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in clinic visitation w ...[more]

PMID: 33020109

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Project description:Objectives Public health interventions designed to interrupt COVID-19 transmission could have deleterious impacts on primary healthcare access. We sought to identify whether implementation of the nationwide lockdown (shelter-in-place) order in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN). Design Prospective, longitudinal cohort study Setting Data were analyzed from the Africa Health Research Institute Health and Demographic Surveillance System, which includes prospective data capture of clinic visits at eleven primary healthcare clinics in northern KwaZulu-Natal Participants A total of 36,291 individuals made 55,545 clinic visits during the observation period. Exposure of Interest We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with regression discontinuity methods to estimate changes in outpatient clinic visitation from 60 days before through 35 days after the lockdown period. Outcome Measures Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses we assessed visitation for the following sub-categories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases, and by age and sex strata. Results We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day from prior to and during the lockdown (-6.9 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -17.4, 3.7) or trends in clinic visitation over time during the lockdown period (-0.2, 95%CI -3.4, 3.1). We did detect a reduction in child healthcare visits at the lockdown (-7.2 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -9.2, -5.3), which was seen in both children <1 and children 1-5. In contrast, we found a significant increase in HIV visits immediately after the lockdown (8.4 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI 2.4, 14.4). No other differences in clinic visitation were found for perinatal care and family planning, non-communicable diseases, or among adult men and women. Conclusions In rural KZN, the ambulatory healthcare system was largely resilient during the national-wide lockdown order. A major exception was child healthcare visitation, which declined immediately after the lockdown but began to normalize in the weeks thereafter. Future work should explore efforts to decentralize chronic care for high-risk populations and whether catch-up vaccination programs might be required in the wake of these findings.

Project description:AimsThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and ensuing restrictions have negatively affected the mental health and well-being of the general population, and there is increasing evidence suggesting that lockdowns have led to a disruption of health services. In March 2020, South Africa introduced a lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, entailing the suspension of all non-essential activities and a complete ban of tobacco and alcohol sales. We studied the effect of the lockdown on mental health care utilisation rates in private-sector care in South Africa.MethodsWe conducted an interrupted time-series analysis using insurance claims from 1 January 2017 to 1 June 2020 of beneficiaries 18 years or older from a large private sector medical insurance scheme. We calculated weekly outpatient consultation and hospital admission rates for organic mental disorders, substance use disorders, serious mental disorders, depression, anxiety, other mental disorders, any mental disorder and alcohol withdrawal syndrome. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for the effect of the lockdown on weekly outpatient consultation and hospital admission rates and the weekly change in rates during the lockdown until 1 June 2020.Results710 367 persons were followed up for a median of 153 weeks. Hospital admission rates (OR 0.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33-0.44) and outpatient consultation rates (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.63-0.87) for any mental disorder decreased substantially after the introduction of the lockdown and did not recover to pre-lockdown levels by 1 June 2020. Health care utilisation rates for alcohol withdrawal syndrome doubled after the introduction of the lockdown, but the statistical uncertainty around the estimates was large (OR 2.24; 95% CI 0.69-7.24).ConclusionsMental health care utilisation rates for inpatient and outpatient services decreased substantially after the introduction of the lockdown. Hospital admissions and outpatient consultations for alcohol withdrawal syndrome increased after the introduction of the lockdown, but statistical uncertainty precludes strong conclusions about a potential unintended effect of the alcohol sales ban. Governments should integrate strategies for ensuring access and continuity of essential mental health services during lockdowns in pandemic preparedness planning.

Project description:BackgroundThe effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries is poorly described. We aimed to measure the impact of the 2020 national COVID-19 lockdown on HIV testing and treatment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where 1·7 million people are living with HIV.MethodsIn this interrupted time series analysis, we analysed anonymised programmatic data from 65 primary care clinics in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We included data from people testing for HIV, initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and collecting ART at participating clinics during the study period, with no age restrictions. We used descriptive statistics to summarise demographic and clinical data, and present crude summaries of the main outcomes of numbers of HIV tests per month, ART initiations per week, and ART collection visits per week, before and after the national lockdown that began on March 27, 2020. We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate impact of the lockdown on these outcomes, as well as post-lockdown trends.FindingsBetween Jan 1, 2018, and July 31, 2020, we recorded 1 315 439 HIV tests. Between Jan 1, 2018, and June 15, 2020, we recorded 71 142 ART initiations and 2 319 992 ART collection visits. We recorded a median of 41 926 HIV tests per month before lockdown (January, 2018, to March, 2020; IQR 37 838-51 069) and a median of 38 911 HIV tests per month after lockdown (April, 2020, to July, 2020; IQR 32 699-42 756). In the Poisson regression model, taking into account long-term trends, lockdown was associated with an estimated 47·6% decrease in HIV testing in April, 2020 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·524, 95% CI 0·446-0·615). ART initiations decreased from a median of 571 per week before lockdown (IQR 498-678), to 375 per week after lockdown (331-399), with an estimated 46·2% decrease in the Poisson regression model in the first week of lockdown (March 30, 2020, to April 5, 2020; IRR 0·538, 0·459-0·630). There was no marked change in the number of ART collection visits (median 18 519 visits per week before lockdown [IQR 17 074-19 922] vs 17 863 visits per week after lockdown [17 509-18 995]; estimated effect in the first week of lockdown IRR 0·932, 95% CI 0·794-1·093). As restrictions eased, HIV testing and ART initiations gradually improved towards pre-lockdown levels (slope change 1·183/month, 95% CI 1·113-1·256 for HIV testing; 1·156/month, 1·085-1·230 for ART initiations).InterpretationART provision was generally maintained during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, but HIV testing and ART initiations were heavily impacted. Strategies to increase testing and treatment initiation should be implemented.FundingWellcome Trust, Africa Oxford Initiative.

Project description:BackgroundEvaluations of health systems strengthening (HSS) interventions using observational data are rarely used for causal inference due to limited data availability. Routinely collected national data allow use of quasi-experimental designs such as interrupted time series (ITS). Rwanda has invested in a robust electronic health management information system (HMIS) that captures monthly healthcare utilization data. We used ITS to evaluate impact of an HSS intervention to improve primary health care facility readiness on health service utilization in two rural districts of Rwanda.MethodsWe used controlled ITS analysis to compare changes in healthcare utilization at health centers (HC) that received the intervention (n = 13) to propensity score matched non-intervention health centers in Rwanda (n = 86) from January 2008 to December 2012. HC support included infrastructure renovation, salary support, medical equipment, referral network strengthening, and clinical training. Baseline quarterly mean outpatient visit rates and population density were used to model propensity scores. The intervention began in May 2010 and was implemented over a twelve-month period. We used monthly healthcare utilization data from the national Rwandan HMIS to study changes in the (1) number of facility deliveries per 10,000 women, (2) number of referrals for high risk pregnancy per 100,000 women, and (3) the number of outpatient visits performed per 1,000 catchment population.ResultsPHIT HC experienced significantly higher monthly delivery rates post-HSS during the April-June season than comparison (3.19/10,000, 95% CI: [0.27, 6.10]). In 2010, this represented a 13% relative increase, and in 2011, this represented a 23% relative increase. The post-HSS change in monthly rate of high-risk pregnancies referred increased slightly in intervention compared to control HC (0.03/10,000, 95% CI: [-0.007, 0.06]). There was a small immediate post-HSS increase in outpatient visit rates in intervention compared to control HC (6.64/1,000, 95% CI: [-13.52, 26.81]).ConclusionWe failed to find strong evidence of post-HSS increases in outpatient visit rates or referral rates at health centers, which could be explained by small sample size and high baseline nation-wide health service coverage. However, our findings demonstrate that high quality routinely collected health facility data combined with ITS can be used for rigorous policy evaluation in resource-limited settings.

Project description:IntroductionWhile travel distance and time are important proxies of physical access to health facilities, obtaining valid measures with an appropriate modelling method remains challenging in many settings. We compared five measures of geographic accessibility in Haiti, producing recommendations that consider available analytic resources and geospatial goals.MethodsEight public hospitals within the ministry of public health and population were included. We estimated distance and time between hospitals and geographic centroids of Haiti's section communes and population-level accessibility. Geographic feature data were obtained from public administrative databases, academic research databases and government satellites. We used validated geographic information system methods to produce five geographic access measures: (1) Euclidean distance (ED), (2) network distance (ND), (3) network travel time (NTT), (4) AccessMod 5 (AM5) distance (AM5D) and (5) AM5 travel time (AM5TT). Relative ranking of section communes across the measures was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients, while mean differences were assessed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and pairwise t-tests.ResultsAll five geographic access measures were highly correlated (range: 0.78-0.99). Of the distance measures, ED values were consistently the shortest, followed by AM5D values, while ND values were the longest. ND values were as high as 2.3 times ED values. NTT models generally produced longer travel time estimates compared with AM5TT models. ED consistently overestimated population coverage within a given threshold compared with ND and AM5D. For example, population-level accessibility within 15 km of the nearest studied hospital in the Center department was estimated at 68% for ED, 50% for AM5D and 34% for ND.ConclusionWhile the access measures were highly correlated, there were significant differences in the absolute measures. Consideration of the benefits and limitations of each geospatial measure together with the intended purpose of the estimates, such as relative proximity of patients or service coverage, are key to guiding appropriate use.

Dataset Information

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

Publications

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

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