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Considering Interim Interventions to Control COVID-19 Associated Morbidity and Mortality-Perspectives.

ABSTRACT: Aims and objectives: The pandemic of COVID-19 is evolving worldwide, and it is associated with high mortality and morbidity. There is a growing need to discuss the elements of a coordinated strategy to control the spread and mitigate the severity of COVID-19. H1N1 and Streptococcus pneumonia vaccines are available. The current analysis was performed to analyze the severity of COVID-19 and influenza (H1N1) vaccination in adults ? 65. Also, to correlate the lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs), and influenza attributable to the lower respiratory tract infections' incidence with Covid-19 mortality. Evolutionarily influenza is close in resemblance to SARS-CoV-2 viruses and shares some common epitopes and mechanisms. Methods: Recent influenza vaccination data of 34 countries from OECD and other publications were correlated with COVID-19 mortality from worldometer data. LRIs attributable to influenza and streptococcus pneumonia were correlated with COVID-19 mortality. Specifically, influenza-attributable LRI incidence data of various countries (n = 182) was correlated with COVID-19 death by linear regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyzes. In a logistic regression model, population density and influenza LRI incidence were correlated with COVID-19 mortality. Results: There is a correlation between COVID-19-related mortality, morbidity, and case incidence and the status of influenza vaccination, which appears protective. The tendency of correlation is increasingly highlighted as the pandemic is evolving. In countries where influenza immunization is less common, there is a correlation between LRIs and influenza attributable to LRI incidence and COVID-19 severity, which is beneficial. ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0.86 (CI 0.78 to 0.944, P < 0.0001) to predict COVID-19 mortality >150/million and a decreasing trend of influenza LRI episodes. To predict COVID-19 mortality of >200/million population, the odds ratio for influenza incidence/100,000 was -1.86 (CI -2.75 to -0.96, P < 0.0001). To predict the parameter Covid-19 mortality/influenza LRI episodes*1000>1000, the influenza parameter had an odd's ratio of -3.83 (CI -5.98 to -1.67), and an AUC of 0.94. Conclusion: Influenza (H1N1) vaccination can be used as an interim measure to mitigate the severity of COVID-19 in the general population. In appropriate high-risk circumstances, Streptococcus pneumonia vaccination would also be an adjunct strategy, especially in countries with a lower incidence of LRIs.

SUBMITTER: Arokiaraj MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7537040 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Considering Interim Interventions to Control COVID-19 Associated Morbidity and Mortality-Perspectives.

Arokiaraj Mark Christopher MC

Frontiers in public health 20200922

<b>Aims and objectives:</b> The pandemic of COVID-19 is evolving worldwide, and it is associated with high mortality and morbidity. There is a growing need to discuss the elements of a coordinated strategy to control the spread and mitigate the severity of COVID-19. H1N1 and <i>Streptococcus pneumonia</i> vaccines are available. The current analysis was performed to analyze the severity of COVID-19 and influenza (H1N1) vaccination in adults ≥ 65. Also, to correlate the lower respiratory tract in ...[more]

PMID: 33072682

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Project description:ObjectivePregnancy involves dynamic changes in the maternal immune system, thus potentially affecting women's response to infection. The aim of this study was to investigate whether gestational age at the time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with mortality and morbidity related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in hospitalized pregnant women.MethodsThis was a cohort study of pregnant women with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at any gestational age (categorized into trimesters) who were hospitalized in Brazil from February 2020 to November 2021. Sociodemographic and epidemiological characteristics, signs and symptoms, comorbidities, interventions, vaccination status and type of healthcare establishment were obtained from a nationwide database. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for in-hospital COVID-19-related mortality and morbidity (defined as time from hospital admission to recovery).ResultsA total of 7461 SARS-CoV-2-infected pregnant women were included in the study (9.3%, 28.4% and 62.3% in the first, second and third trimesters, respectively). After adjustment for sociodemographic, epidemiological and clinical characteristics, and intervention-related variables, gestational age at infection was found not to be associated with COVID-19-related mortality and morbidity. Women admitted to establishments with an obstetric center, compared to hospitals without, were 38% less likely to die from SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.80), while patients who received private not-for-profit healthcare had a 13% shorter time to recovery (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07-1.20) compared to those who received public healthcare.ConclusionsDespite a higher percentage of women being admitted in the third trimester, we found no association between gestational age and COVID-19 mortality and morbidity. The previously reported increase in morbidity and mortality in the third trimester in pregnant women with COVID-19 may be attributable to other gestational-age-affected variables for which adjustment was made in our study. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic claimed millions of lives worldwide without clear signs of abating despite several mitigation efforts and vaccination campaigns. There have been tremendous interests in understanding the etiology of the disease particularly in what makes it severe and fatal in certain patients. Studies have shown that COVID-19 patients with kidney injury on admission were more likely to develop severe disease, and acute kidney disease was associated with high mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.MethodsThis study investigated 819 COVID-19 patients admitted between January 2020-April 2021 to the COVID-19 ward at a tertiary care center in Lebanon and evaluated their vital signs and biomarkers while probing for two main outcomes: intubation and fatality. Logistic and Cox regressions were performed to investigate the association between clinical and metabolic variables and disease outcomes, mainly intubation and mortality. Times were defined in terms of admission and discharge/fatality for COVID-19, with no other exclusions.ResultsRegression analysis revealed that the following are independent risk factors for both intubation and fatality respectively: diabetes (p = 0.021 and p = 0.04), being overweight (p = 0.021 and p = 0.072), chronic kidney disease (p = 0.045 and p = 0.001), and gender (p = 0.016 and p = 0.114). Further, shortness of breath (p<0.001), age (p<0.001) and being overweight (p = 0.014) associated with intubation, while fatality with shortness of breath (p<0.001) in our group of patients. Elevated level of serum creatinine was the highest factor associated with fatality (p = 0.002), while both white blood count (p<0.001) and serum glutamic-oxaloacetic transaminase levels (p<0.001) emerged as independent risk factors for intubation.ConclusionsCollectively our data show that high creatinine levels were significantly associated with fatality in our COVID-19 study patients, underscoring the importance of kidney function as a main modulator of SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and favor a careful and proactive management of patients with elevated creatinine levels on admission.

Project description:BackgroundIn the last decade, an important scale-up was observed in malaria control interventions. Madagascar entered the process for pre-elimination in 2007. Policy making needs operational indicators, but also indicators about effectiveness and impact of malaria control interventions (MCI). This study is aimed at providing data about malaria infection, morbidity, and mortality, and MCI in Madagascar.MethodsTwo nationwide surveys were simultaneously conducted in 2012-2013 in Madagascar: a study about non-complicated clinical malaria cases in 31 sentinel health facilities, and a cross-sectional survey (CSS) in 62 sites. The CSS encompassed interviews, collection of biological samples and verbal autopsies (VA). Data from CSS were weighted for age, sex, malaria transmission pattern, and population density. VA data were processed with InterVA-4 software.ResultsCSS included 15,746 individuals of all ages. Parasite rate (PR) as measured by rapid diagnostic tests was 3.1%, and was significantly higher in five to 19 year olds, in males, poorer socio-economic status (SES) quintiles and rural areas. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) use was 41.7% and was significantly lower in five to 19 year olds, males and wealthier SES quintiles. Proportion of persons covered by indoor residual spraying (IRS) was 66.8% in targeted zones. Proportion of persons using other insecticides than IRS was 22.8%. Coverage of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy was 21.5%. Exposure to information, education and communication messages about malaria was significantly higher in wealthier SES for all media but information meetings. The proportion of fever case managements considered as appropriate with regard to malaria was 15.8%. Malaria was attributed as the cause of death in 14.0% of 86 VA, and 50% of these deaths involved persons above the age of five years. The clinical case study included 818 cases of which people above the age of five accounted for 79.7%. In targeted zones, coverage of LLIN and IRS were lower in clinical cases than in general population.ConclusionsThis study provides valuable data for the evaluation of effectiveness and factors affecting MCI. MCI and evaluation surveys should consider the whole population and not only focus on under-fives and pregnant women in pre-elimination or elimination strategies.

Project description:ImportanceA key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission.ObjectiveTo project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs.Design setting and participantsThis simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs.ExposuresDate of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresProjected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022.ResultsWith the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges.Conclusions and relevanceThis simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.

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Considering Interim Interventions to Control COVID-19 Associated Morbidity and Mortality-Perspectives.

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Considering Interim Interventions to Control COVID-19 Associated Morbidity and Mortality-Perspectives.

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