Implications of COVID-19 for an ageing population.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Holt NR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7537179 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Implications of COVID-19 for an ageing population.
Holt Nicolette R NR Neumann Johannes T JT McNeil John J JJ Cheng Allen C AC
The Medical journal of Australia 20200918 8
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Project description:Population screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) has recently commenced in the United Kingdom supported by the evidence of a number of randomised trials and pilot studies. Certain factors are known to influence screening cost-effectiveness (e.g. compliance), but it remains unclear whether an ageing population (i.e. demographic change) might also have an effect. The aim of this study was to simulate a population-based screening setting using a Markov model and assess the effect of increasing life expectancy on CRC screening cost-effectiveness. A Markov model was constructed that aimed, using a cohort simulation, to estimate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening in an England and Wales population for two timescales: 2003 (early cohort) and 2033 (late cohort). Four model outcomes were calculated; screened and non-screened cohorts in 2003 and 2033. The screened cohort of men and women aged 60 years were offered biennial unhydrated faecal occult blood testing until the age of 69 years. Life expectancy was assumed to increase by 2.5 years per decade. There were 407 552 fewer people entering the model in the 2033 model due to a lower birth cohort, and population screening saw 30 345 fewer CRC-related deaths over the 50 years of the model. Screening the 2033 cohort cost pound 96 million with cost savings of pound 43 million in terms of detection and treatment and pound 28 million in palliative care costs. After 30 years of follow-up, the cost per life year saved was pound 1544. An identical screening programme in an early cohort (2003) saw a cost per life year saved of pound 1651. Population screening for CRC is costly but enables cost savings in certain areas and a considerable reduction in mortality from CRC. This Markov simulation suggests that the cost-effectiveness of population screening for CRC in the United Kingdom may actually be improved by rising life expectancies.
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Project description:AimThe purpose of this review is to discuss the current status of local and international efforts undergoing clinical trials aiming at developing a Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, and to highlight the anticipated challenges of this vaccine globally and in Saudi Arabia.Present findingsCOVID-19 vaccine development efforts started in early January 2020 when Chinese scientists shared the Coronavirus genomic sequence in public domain. Approximately 321 research groups initiated the search for a vaccine, out of which 41 have reached phase I/II trails and 11 reached phase-III clinical trials, including approved vaccines for early to limited use. Out of these projects are two labs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia still in early stages of development of a COVID-19 vaccine. Several vaccine attempts are being tested from traditional, attenuated virus methods, to new nucleic acid-based designs. However, no vaccine has yet completed clinical trials and reached public domain.In spite of the challenges faced during previous vaccine trials, researchers have found that Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19 is structurally similar to the (SARS-CoV-1) and the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which caused epidemics in 2003 and 2012 respectively. Both SARS strains show identical affinity towards the type-II alveolar pneumocytes angiotensin converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2) receptor binding domains and therefore, similar pathogenicity. The race to develop the vaccine is predominantly for individuals at high risk of developing the infection, i.e. population groups who are most susceptible to experiencing fatal symptoms of the coronavirus. These include patients with comorbidities, above the age of 60 years and people at risk of contracting large viral loads, such as healthcare providers caring for critical admissions in in-patient wards, Intensive Care Units and Emergency Room settings.SummaryMany different vaccine strategies are under development throughout different stages of the research timeline; however, it is estimated that none will show favorable results before end of 2020. For any immunization or interventional prevention/therapy system to reach the public and patients at high risk, it needs to undergo multiple phase trials to ensure safety and effectiveness. In this scoping review we aim to map the literature on COVID-19 vaccines and provide recommendations related to gaps in research, applicability and expected challenges for implementation of nationwide vaccination in Saudi Arabia.
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Project description:Covid-19 endangers lives, has disrupted normal life, changed the way medicine is practised and is likely to alter our world for the foreseeable future. Almost two years on since the presumptive first diagnosis of COVID-19 in China, more than two hundred and fifty million cases have been confirmed and more than five million people have died globally, with the figures rising daily. One of the most striking aspects of COVID-19 illness is the marked difference in individuals' experiences of the disease. Some, most often younger groups, are asymptomatic, whereas others become severely ill with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia or proceed to fatal organ disease. The highest death rates are in the older and oldest age groups and in people with co-morbidities such as diabetes, heart disease and obesity. Three major questions seem important to consider. What do we understand about changes in the immune system that might contribute to the older person's risk of developing severe COVID-19? What factors contribute to the higher morbidity and mortality in older people with COVID-19? How could immunocompetence in the older and the frailest individuals and populations be supported and enhanced to give protection from serious COVID-19 illness?
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Project description:The map presented in this brief note summarizes regional differences in population age structures between the NUTS-3 regions of Europe in the context of unequal age- and sex-specific death risks associated with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since older people are exposed to much higher death risks, older populations are expected to face much more difficult challenges coping with the pandemic. The urban/rural dimension turns out to be very important as the remote rural areas are also the oldest. In the map NUTS-3 regions of Europe are colored according to the deviation from European pooled estimate of the proportion of population at risk of death due to COVID-19. We assume that 5/6 of the populations get infected and experience age-specific infection-fatality ratios (IFRs) modelled by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. We adjust IFRs by sex ratios of age-specific case-fatality ratios observed in the European countries that are included in the COVerAGE-DB. Thus, we effectively introduce a summary measure of population age structures focused on the most vulnerable to the pandemic. Such an estimate for the total European population is 1%. The map reflects the unequal population age structures rather than the precise figures on COVID-19 fatality. It is a case-if scenario that highlights the possible effect of the population age structures, a demographic perspective. This analysis clearly shows the contribution of regional differences in population age structures to the magnitude of the pandemic - other things equal, we expect to see a four-fold variation in average regional infection-fatality ratios across Europe due only to differences in the population structures.
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