Dataset Information

Information-theoretic measures for nonlinear causality detection: application to social media sentiment and cryptocurrency prices.

ABSTRACT: Information transfer between time series is calculated using the asymmetric information-theoretic measure known as transfer entropy. Geweke's autoregressive formulation of Granger causality is used to compute linear transfer entropy, and Schreiber's general, non-parametric, information-theoretic formulation is used to quantify nonlinear transfer entropy. We first validate these measures against synthetic data. Then we apply these measures to detect statistical causality between social sentiment changes and cryptocurrency returns. We validate results by performing permutation tests by shuffling the time series, and calculate the Z-score. We also investigate different approaches for partitioning in non-parametric density estimation which can improve the significance. Using these techniques on sentiment and price data over a 48-month period to August 2018, for four major cryptocurrencies, namely bitcoin (BTC), ripple (XRP), litecoin (LTC) and ethereum (ETH), we detect significant information transfer, on hourly timescales, with greater net information transfer from sentiment to price for XRP and LTC, and instead from price to sentiment for BTC and ETH. We report the scale of nonlinear statistical causality to be an order of magnitude larger than the linear case.

SUBMITTER: Keskin Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7540793 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Information-theoretic measures for nonlinear causality detection: application to social media sentiment and cryptocurrency prices.

Keskin Z Z Aste T T

Royal Society open science 20200916 9

Information transfer between time series is calculated using the asymmetric information-theoretic measure known as transfer entropy. Geweke's autoregressive formulation of Granger causality is used to compute linear transfer entropy, and Schreiber's general, non-parametric, information-theoretic formulation is used to quantify nonlinear transfer entropy. We first validate these measures against synthetic data. Then we apply these measures to detect statistical causality between social sentiment ...[more]

PMID: 33047046

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Project description:To examine current vaccine sentiment on social media by constructing and analyzing semantic networks of vaccine information from highly shared websites of Twitter users in the United States; and to assist public health communication of vaccines.Vaccine hesitancy continues to contribute to suboptimal vaccination coverage in the United States, posing significant risk of disease outbreaks, yet remains poorly understood.We constructed semantic networks of vaccine information from internet articles shared by Twitter users in the United States. We analyzed resulting network topology, compared semantic differences, and identified the most salient concepts within networks expressing positive, negative, and neutral vaccine sentiment.The semantic network of positive vaccine sentiment demonstrated greater cohesiveness in discourse compared to the larger, less-connected network of negative vaccine sentiment. The positive sentiment network centered around parents and focused on communicating health risks and benefits, highlighting medical concepts such as measles, autism, HPV vaccine, vaccine-autism link, meningococcal disease, and MMR vaccine. In contrast, the negative network centered around children and focused on organizational bodies such as CDC, vaccine industry, doctors, mainstream media, pharmaceutical companies, and United States. The prevalence of negative vaccine sentiment was demonstrated through diverse messaging, framed around skepticism and distrust of government organizations that communicate scientific evidence supporting positive vaccine benefits.Semantic network analysis of vaccine sentiment in online social media can enhance understanding of the scope and variability of current attitudes and beliefs toward vaccines. Our study synthesizes quantitative and qualitative evidence from an interdisciplinary approach to better understand complex drivers of vaccine hesitancy for public health communication, to improve vaccine confidence and vaccination coverage in the United States.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Although vaccination rates are above the threshold for herd immunity in South Korea, a growing number of parents have expressed concerns about the safety of vaccines. It is important to understand these concerns so that we can maintain high vaccination rates. OBJECTIVE:The aim of this study was to develop a childhood vaccination ontology to serve as a framework for collecting and analyzing social data on childhood vaccination and to use this ontology for identifying concerns about and sentiments toward childhood vaccination from social data. METHODS:The domain and scope of the ontology were determined by developing competency questions. We checked if existing ontologies and conceptual frameworks related to vaccination can be reused for the childhood vaccination ontology. Terms were collected from clinical practice guidelines, research papers, and posts on social media platforms. Class concepts were extracted from these terms. A class hierarchy was developed using a top-down approach. The ontology was evaluated in terms of description logics, face and content validity, and coverage. In total, 40,359 Korean posts on childhood vaccination were collected from 27 social media channels between January and December 2015. Vaccination issues were identified and classified using the second-level class concepts of the ontology. The sentiments were classified in 3 ways: positive, negative or neutral. Posts were analyzed using frequency, trend, logistic regression, and association rules. RESULTS:Our childhood vaccination ontology comprised 9 superclasses with 137 subclasses and 431 synonyms for class, attribute, and value concepts. Parent's health belief appeared in 53.21% (15,709/29,521) of posts and positive sentiments appeared in 64.08% (17,454/27,236) of posts. Trends in sentiments toward vaccination were affected by news about vaccinations. Posts with parents' health belief, vaccination availability, and vaccination policy were associated with positive sentiments, whereas posts with experience of vaccine adverse events were associated with negative sentiments. CONCLUSIONS:The childhood vaccination ontology developed in this study was useful for collecting and analyzing social data on childhood vaccination. We expect that practitioners and researchers in the field of childhood vaccination could use our ontology to identify concerns about and sentiments toward childhood vaccination from social data.

Dataset Information

Information-theoretic measures for nonlinear causality detection: application to social media sentiment and cryptocurrency prices.

Publications

Information-theoretic measures for nonlinear causality detection: application to social media sentiment and cryptocurrency prices.

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