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The Coupon Collection Behavior in Human Reproduction.

ABSTRACT: There is evidence in humans for genetic influences on the probability (P_boy) that a birth yields a boy instead of a girl [1-6], suggesting a potential variation of P_boy among families. To quantify this variation, we analyze the survey data from over 300,000 UK Biobank participants primarily born between 1940 and 1970 [7]. Surprisingly, the proportion of male children in a family, or sex ratio (SR), has a significantly smaller among-family variation than expected under a uniform P_boy. We propose that this phenomenon results from reproductive behaviors reflecting a preference for having children of both sexes, much like the coupon collector's problem in probability theory where collecting a complete set of distinct coupons is considered a win. We find that the observed deficit in SR variation is explainable by 3.3% of "coupon-collecting" families. Consistently, significantly more families than expected have all children of the same sex except for the child born last. This trend is more pronounced in the late than the early half of the families in the data, suggesting an increasing popularity of this behavior. Analysis of a Dutch genealogical dataset spanning the past 4 centuries reveals higher-than-expected SR variations over much of the history; only after 1940 did the SR variation drop below the expectation. We conclude that a significant fraction of couples now exhibit the coupon collection behavior in reproduction such that SR is more homogeneous among families than expected by chance.

SUBMITTER: Long E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7541714 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceDrug companies offer coupons to lower the out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs, yet little is known about why they do so for some drugs but not for others.ObjectiveTo examine whether the following factors are associated with manufacturer drug coupon use: (1) patient-cost characteristics (mean per-patient cost per drug, mean patient copay); (2) drug characteristics (generics availability or "later-in-class-entrant" drugs); (3) drug-class characteristics (in-class coupon use among competitors; in-class generic competition; in-class mean cost and copay).Design setting and participantsThis was a retrospective cohort analysis of anonymized transactional pharmacy claims sourced from retail US pharmacies from October 2017 to September 2019, supplemented with information derived from Medi-Span, Red Book, and FDA.gov. Data were analyzed from September 2020 to February 2021.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was availability of a manufacturer's coupon. The secondary outcome was the mean proportion of transactions in which a coupon was used for each product.ResultsThe sample of 2501 unique brand-name prescription drugs accounted for a total of 8 995 141 claims. Manufacturers offered a coupon for 1267 (50.7%) of these drugs. When the manufacturer offered a coupon, it was used in a mean (SD) 16.3% (20.3%) of the transactions. Within a drug class, higher mean total cost per patient was positively associated with the likelihood of coupon use (odds ratio [OR], 1.03 per 10% increase; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04), but higher mean patient copay was inversely associated (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.99). For drug characteristics, single-source later-in-class-entrant products were associated with a greater likelihood of coupon use compared with first entrants and multisource brands (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.09-1.89). The intensity of coupon use was associated with later-in-class-entrant products and the class mean per-patient cost (4.16-percentage-point increase; 95% CI, 1.20-7.13; 0.27 per 10% increase; 95% CI, 0.09-0.44). Drugs with a new in-class brand-name competitor had greater mean coupon use compared with drugs without a new competitor (10.2% of claims with a coupon vs 5.9%).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of transactional pharmacy claims, higher mean per-patient total cost within a class was significantly associated with the likelihood of coupon use, but not patient out-of-pocket cost. Manufacturers' coupons were more likely to be used for expensive later-in-class-entrant products facing within-class competition where coupon use was prevalent.

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The Coupon Collection Behavior in Human Reproduction.

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