Dataset Information

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, has been spreading globally. We aimed to develop a clinical model to predict the outcome of patients with severe COVID-19 infection early.

Methods

Demographic, clinical and first laboratory findings after admission of 183 patients with severe COVID-19 infection (115 survivors and 68 non-survivors from the Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan) were used to develop the predictive models. Machine learning approaches were used to select the features and predict the patients' outcomes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was applied to compare the models' performance. A total of 64 with severe COVID-19 infection from the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, were used to externally validate the final predictive model.

Results

The baseline characteristics and laboratory tests were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. Four variables (age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level) were selected by all five models. Given the similar performance among the models, the logistic regression model was selected as the final predictive model because of its simplicity and interpretability. The AUROCs of the external validation sets were 0.881. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.839 and 0.794 for the validation set, when using a probability of death of 50% as the cutoff. Risk score based on the selected variables can be used to assess the mortality risk. The predictive model is available at [https://phenomics.fudan.edu.cn/risk_scores/].

Conclusions

Age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level of COVID-19 patients at admission are informative for the patients' outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Hu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7543461 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning.

Hu Chuanyu C Liu Zhenqiu Z Jiang Yanfeng Y Shi Oumin O Zhang Xin X Xu Kelin K Suo Chen C Wang Qin Q Song Yujing Y Yu Kangkang K Mao Xianhua X Wu Xuefu X Wu Mingshan M Shi Tingting T Jiang Wei W Mu Lina L Tully Damien C DC Xu Lei L Jin Li L Li Shusheng S Tao Xuejin X Zhang Tiejun T Chen Xingdong X

International journal of epidemiology 20210101 6

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, has been spreading globally. We aimed to develop a clinical model to predict the outcome of patients with severe COVID-19 infection early.<h4>Methods</h4>Demographic, clinical and first laboratory findings after admission of 183 patients with severe COVID-19 infection (115 survivors and 68 non-survivors from the Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan) were u ...[more]

PMID: 32997743

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Project description:In Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), early identification of patients with a high risk of mortality can significantly improve triage, bed allocation, timely management, and possibly, outcome. The study objective is to develop and validate individualized mortality risk scores based on the anonymized clinical and laboratory data at admission and determine the probability of Deaths at 7 and 28 days. Data of 1393 admitted patients (Expired-8.54%) was collected from six Apollo Hospital centers (from April to July 2020) using a standardized template and electronic medical records. 63 Clinical and Laboratory parameters were studied based on the patient's initial clinical state at admission and laboratory parameters within the first 24 h. The Machine Learning (ML) modelling was performed using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) Algorithm. 'Time to event' using Cox Proportional Hazard Model was used and combined with XGB Algorithm. The prospective validation cohort was selected of 977 patients (Expired-8.3%) from six centers from July to October 2020. The Clinical API for the Algorithm is http://20.44.39.47/covid19v2/page1.php being used prospectively. Out of the 63 clinical and laboratory parameters, Age [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.31; 95% CI 1.52-3.53], Male Gender (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.06-2.85), Respiratory Distress (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.32-2.53), Diabetes Mellitus (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.83-1.77), Chronic Kidney Disease (HR 3.04, 95% CI 1.72-5.38), Coronary Artery Disease (HR 1.56, 95% CI - 0.91 to 2.69), respiratory rate > 24/min (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.03-2.3), oxygen saturation below 90% (HR 2.84, 95% CI 1.87-4.3), Lymphocyte% in DLC (HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.23-2.32), INR (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.13), LDH (HR 4.02, 95% CI 2.66-6.07) and Ferritin (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.32-4.74) were found to be significant. The performance parameters of the current model is at AUC ROC Score of 0.8685 and Accuracy Score of 96.89. The validation cohort had the AUC of 0.782 and Accuracy of 0.93. The model for Mortality Risk Prediction provides insight into the COVID Clinical and Laboratory Parameters at admission. It is one of the early studies, reflecting on 'time to event' at the admission, accurately predicting patient outcomes.

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Dataset Information

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning.

Similar Datasets

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