Dataset Information

Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.

ABSTRACT: Palms (Arecaceae) are a relatively speciose family and provide materials for food, construction, and handicraft, especially in the tropics. They are frequently used as paleo-indicators for megathermal climates, and therefore, it is logical to predict that palms will benefit from predicted warmer temperatures under anthropogenic climate change. We created species distribution models to explore the projected ranges of five widespread southeastern North American palm species (Rhapidophyllum hystrix, Sabal etonia, Sabal minor, Sabal palmetto, and Serenoa repens) under four climate change scenarios through 2070. We project that the amount of habitat with >50% suitability for S. etonia will decline by a median of 50% by 2070, while the amount of habitat with >50% suitability S. minor will decline by a median of 97%. In contrast, the amount of suitable habitat for Rhapidophyllum hystrix will remain stable, while the amount of suitable habitat for Serenoa repens will slightly increase. The projected distribution for S. palmetto will increase substantially, by a median of approximately 21% across all scenarios. The centroid of the range of each species will shift generally north at a median rate of 23.5 km/decade. These five palm species have limited dispersal ability and require a relatively long time to mature and set fruit. Consequently, it is likely that the change in the distribution of these palms will lag behind the projected changes in climate. However, Arecaceae can modify physiological responses to heat and drought, which may permit these palms to persist as local conditions become increasingly inappropriate. Nonetheless, this plasticity is unlikely to indefinitely prevent local extinctions.

SUBMITTER: Butler CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7548205 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.

Butler Christopher J CJ Larson Matt M

Ecology and evolution 20200901 19

Palms (Arecaceae) are a relatively speciose family and provide materials for food, construction, and handicraft, especially in the tropics. They are frequently used as paleo-indicators for megathermal climates, and therefore, it is logical to predict that palms will benefit from predicted warmer temperatures under anthropogenic climate change. We created species distribution models to explore the projected ranges of five widespread southeastern North American palm species (<i>Rhapidophyllum hyst ...[more]

PMID: 33072269

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Project description:Climate change will cause a range of related risks, including increases in infectious and chronic disease, intensified social and economic stresses, and more frequent extreme weather events. Vulnerable groups will be disproportionately affected due to greater exposure to climate risks and lower ability to prepare, adapt, and recover from their effects. Better understanding of the intersection of vulnerability and climate change risks is required to identify the most important drivers of future climate risks and effectively build resilience and deploy targeted adaptation efforts. Incorporating community stakeholder input, we identified and integrated available public health, social, economic, environmental, and climate data in the United States (U.S.), comprising 184 indicators, to develop a Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) composed of four baseline vulnerabilities (health, social/economic, infrastructure, and environment) and three climate change risks (health, social/economic, extreme events). We find that the vulnerability to and risks from climate change are highly heterogeneous across the U.S. at the census tract scale, and geospatially cluster into complementary areas with similar climate risks but differing baseline vulnerabilities. Our results therefore demonstrate that not only are climate change risks both broadly and variably distributed across the U.S., but also that existing disparities are often further exacerbated by climate change. The CVI thus lays a data-driven, scientific foundation for future research on the intersection of climate change risks with health and other inequalities, while also identifying health impacts of climate change as the greatest research gap. Moreover, given U.S. government initiatives surrounding climate and equity, the CVI can be instrumental in empowering communities and policymakers to better prioritize resources and target interventions, providing a template for addressing local-scale climate and environmental justice globally.

Dataset Information

Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.

Publications

Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.

Similar Datasets

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