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The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru. METHODS:Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016. RESULTS:The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women. CONCLUSIONS:Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality.

SUBMITTER: Carrillo-Larco RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7549811 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru.

Carrillo-Larco Rodrigo M RM Bennett James E JE Di Cesare Mariachiara M Gregg Edward W EW Bernabe-Ortiz Antonio A

PloS one 20201012 10

<h4>Background</h4>Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru.<h4>Methods</h4>Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the uncond ...[more]

PMID: 33045034

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Project description:The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions-including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment-will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the main health and development challenge facing humankind all over the world. They are inextricably linked to socio-economic development. Deaths caused by NCDs should be different in different socio-economic development stages. The stratified heterogeneity of NCD deaths is currently not fully explored. METHODS:Countries were classified according to their socio-economic types and development stages, which were illustrated as a tree-like structure called Geotree. NCD deaths were linked to the countries and so were attached to the Geotree, which was modelled by a multilevel model (MLM) approach. Accordingly, the levels of NCD death indexes were predicted for 2030. RESULTS:Through the Geotree structure constructed in the study, it can be seen that the NCD death index has obvious stratified heterogeneity; that is, the NCD death index shows different trends in different country types and socio-economic development stages. In the first-level branches (country type), as national income increases, NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In the secondary-level trunks (socio-economic development stage), as a country's development stage rises, the NCD mortality rate decreases and the proportion of NCD deaths to total deaths increases. In addition, combined with the hierarchical nature of the evolution tree model, the MLM was used to predict the global NCD death index for 2030. The result was that by 2030, the global average age-standardized NCD mortality rate would be 510.54 (per 100,000 population) and the global average mortality for NCD deaths of the total number of deaths would be 75.26%. CONCLUSIONS:This study found that there is a significant association between socio-economic factors and NCD death indicators in the tree-like structure. In the Geotree, countries on the same branch or trunk can learn from countries with higher development stages to formulate more effective NCD response policies and find the right prevention and treatment path.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, international health policies focusing on the fight against the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS), tuberculosis (TB), malaria, and those diseases that address maternal and child health problems, among others, have skewed disease control priorities in China and other Asian countries. Although these are important health problems, an epidemic of chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China has accounted for a much greater burden of disease due to the ongoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic transition. DISCUSSION: Although NCDs currently account for more than 80% of the overall disease burden in China, they remain very low on the nation's disease control priorities, attracting marginal investment from central and local governments. This leaves the majority of patients with chronic conditions without effective treatment. International organizations and national governments have recognized the devastating social and economic consequences caused by NCDs in low- and middle-income countries, including China. Yet, few donor-funded projects that address NCDs have been implemented in these countries over the past decade. Due to a lack of strong support from international organizations and national governments for fighting against NCDs, affected persons in China, especially the poor and those who live in rural and less developed regions, continue to have limited access to the needed care. Costs associated with frequent health facility visits and regular treatment have become a major factor in medical impoverishment in China. This article argues that although China's ongoing health system reform would provide a unique opportunity to tackle current public health problems, it may not be sufficient to address the emerging threat of NCDs unless targeted steps are taken to assure that adequate financial and human resources are mapped for effective control and management of NCDs in the country. SUMMARY: The Chinese government needs to develop a domestically-driven and evidence-based disease control policy and funding priorities that respond appropriately to the country's current epidemiological transition, and rapid sociodemographic and lifestyle changes.

Dataset Information

The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru.

Publications

The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru.

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