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Modeling 1-year Relapse-free Survival After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Cystectomy in Patients with Clinical T2-4N0M0 Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma: Endpoints for Phase 2 Trials.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Several ongoing phase 2 trials are evaluating new neoadjuvant therapy regimens in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). The 1-yr recurrence-free survival (RFS) after radical cystectomy (RC), with or without perioperative chemotherapy, can be used to model statistical assumptions and interpret outcomes from these studies. OBJECTIVE:To provide a benchmark for predicting 1-yr RFS in patients with cT2-4N0 MIBC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:We identified 950 patients with clinical stage T2-4N0 MIBC undergoing RC at 27 centers between 1990 and 2016. We assessed 1-yr RFS rates for patients managed with no perioperative chemotherapy, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), adjuvant chemotherapy (AC), or NAC followed by AC. Cox regression analyses tested for 1-yr postsurgical RFS predictors. A Cox-based nomogram was developed to estimate 1-yr RFS and its accuracy was assessed in terms of Harrell's c-index, a calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. We report 1-yr RFS rates across the nomogram tertiles. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:The 1-yr RFS rates were 67.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 64-72) after no perioperative chemotherapy, 76.9% (95% CI 72-83%) after NAC, 77.8% (95% CI 71-85%) after AC, and 57% (95% CI 37-87) after NAC+AC. On multivariable analysis, positive surgical margins (p=0.002), pT stage (p<0.0001), and pN stage (p<.0001) were significantly associated with RFS, while NAC was not (p=0.6). The model including all these factors yielded a c-index of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79), good calibration, and a high net benefit. The 1-yr RFS rates across nomogram tertiles were 90.5% (95% CI 87-94%), 73.4% (95% CI 68-79%), and 51.1% (95% CI 45-58%), respectively. The results lack external validation. CONCLUSIONS:Benchmark 1-yr RFS estimates for phase 2 design of new neoadjuvant trials are proposed and can be used for statistical assumptions, pending external validation. PATIENT SUMMARY:Our prognostic model predicting 1-yr survival free from recurrence of bladder cancer after radical cystectomy, with or without standard chemotherapy, could provide an improvement to the quality of phase 2 clinical trial designs and interpretation of their results.

SUBMITTER: Bandini M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7552889 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling 1-year Relapse-free Survival After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Cystectomy in Patients with Clinical T2-4N0M0 Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma: Endpoints for Phase 2 Trials.

Bandini Marco M Briganti Alberto A Plimack Elizabeth R ER Niegisch Günter G Yu Evan Y EY Bamias Aristotelis A Agarwal Neeraj N Sridhar Srikala S SS Sternberg Cora N CN Vaishampayan Ulka U Théodore Christine C Rosenberg Jonathan E JE Bellmunt Joaquim J Galsky Matthew D MD Montorsi Francesco F Necchi Andrea A

European urology oncology 20180907 3

<h4>Background</h4>Several ongoing phase 2 trials are evaluating new neoadjuvant therapy regimens in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). The 1-yr recurrence-free survival (RFS) after radical cystectomy (RC), with or without perioperative chemotherapy, can be used to model statistical assumptions and interpret outcomes from these studies.<h4>Objective</h4>To provide a benchmark for predicting 1-yr RFS in patients with cT2-4N0 MIBC.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>We iden ...[more]

PMID: 31200838

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Project description:Assessment of the immune status of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) has previously shown to be prognostically relevant after treatment with curative intent. We conducted this study to develop a clinically applicable immune gene expression assay to predict prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy benefit. Gene expression of CD3Z, CD8A and CXCL9, immune cell (IC) populations including stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs), T-cells, natural killer cells (NK-cells), macrophages, Programmed cell death protein 1 positive (PD-1) IC and tumor subtypes (MD Anderson Cancer Center/MDACC-approach) were assessed in 187 MIBC patients (Comprehensive Cancer Center Erlangen-EMN/CCC-EMN-cohort). A gene expression signature was derived by hierarchical-clustering and validated in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-cohort. IC populations in the TCGA cohort were assessed via CIBERSORT. Benefit of platinum-containing adjuvant chemotherapy was assessed in a pooled cohort of 125 patients. Outcome measurements were disease specific survival, disease-free survival and overall survival. The gene expression signature of CXCL9, CD3Z and CD8A correlates with quantitative amounts of specific IC populations and sTILs (CCC-EMN: ρ-range: 0.44-0.74; TCGA: ρ-range: 0.56-0.82) and allows stratification of three different inflammation levels (inflamed high, inflamed low, uninflamed). Highly inflamed tumors are preferentially basal subtype and show favorable 5-year survival rates of 67.3% (HR=0.27; CCC-EMN) and 55% (HR=0.41; TCGA). Uninflamed tumors are predominantly luminal subtypes and show low 5-year survival rates of 28% (CCC-EMN) and 36% (TCGA). Inflamed tumors exhibit higher levels of PD-1 and Programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1). Patients undergoing adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy with 'inflamed high' tumors showed a favorable 5-year survival rate of 64% (HR=0.27; merged CCC-EMN and TCGA cohort). The gene expression signature of CD3Z, CD8A and CXCL9 can assess the immune status of MIBC and stratify the survival of MIBC patients undergoing surgery and adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy. Furthermore, the assay can identify patients with immunological hot tumors with particular high expression of PD-L1 potentially suitable for immunotherapy.

Project description:Bladder cancer (BCa) is the tenth most commonly diagnosed malignant cancer worldwide. Although adjuvant chemotherapy following radical cystectomy is a common therapy for muscle invasive bladder cancer patients, no applicable biomarkers exist to predict which patients will benefit from chemotherapy. In this study, we examined three immune cell markers, the chemokine CC motif ligand 2 (CCL2), the pan macrophage marker cluster of differentiation 68 (CD68) and the M2 macrophage marker cluster of differentiation 163 (CD163), using immunohistochemistry to determine their predictive value for the chemotherapy response in different nodal stage (pN0 vs. pN1 + 2) and tumor stage subgroups (pT2 vs. pT3 + 4). The prognosis was studied in terms of the overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and recurrence-free-survival (RFS) in 168 muscle invasive BCa patients. Chemotherapy was associated with a poorer prognosis in patients with a higher expression of the immune markers CCL2 (RFS), CD68 (DSS and RFS), and CD163 (DSS and RFS) in the N0 group and with poorer survival in patients with a higher expression of the immune markers CCL2 (OS, DSS, and RFS), CD68 (OS, DSS, and RFS), and CD163 (OS, DSS, and RFS) in the pT2 group when compared with treatments without chemotherapy. In contrast, chemotherapy was associated with a better prognosis in patients with a low expression of the immune markers CCL2 (DSS and RFS), CD68 (OS, DSS, and RFS), and CD163 (OS) in the N1 + 2 group. In addition, chemotherapy was associated with improved survival in patients with a low expression of the immune marker CD68 (OS and DSS) and there was a trend for a better prognosis in patients with a low expression of CD163 (OS) in the pT3 + 4 group compared to patients not treated with chemotherapy. Interestingly, CD68 appeared to be the most applicable immune marker to stratify patients by the outcome of chemotherapy in the nodal stage and tumor stage groups. Overall, we suggest that, in addition to the clinical factors of tumor stage and nodal stage, it is also meaningful to consider the abundance of immune cells, such as macrophages, to better predict the response to chemotherapy for BCa patients after radical treatment.

Project description:ImportanceDespite existing evidence of a benefit associated with cisplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after radical cystectomy (RC) for chemotherapy-naive patients with pT3/T4 and/or pN+ urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB), to our knowledge, no studies have addressed the effectiveness of AC in those who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) before surgery.ObjectiveTo assess the comparative effectiveness of AC vs observation for patients with pT3/T4 and/or pN+ UCB previously treated with NAC and RC.Design, setting, and participantsThis observational cohort study used the National Cancer Data Base (January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2012) to identify individuals who received NAC and RC followed by AC or observation for pT3/T4 and/or pN+ UCB.Main outcomes and measuresAfter multiple imputation was used to handle missing data, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed with a 6-month conditional landmark to compare overall survival (OS) among patients who received NAC and RC followed by AC vs observation. In addition, exploratory analyses were conducted to examine the heterogeneity of the treatment effect according to age (continuous), sex (female vs male), Charlson comorbidity index (?1 vs 0), pT/N stage (pT3/T4N0 vs pTanyN+), and surgical margin status (positive vs negative) by testing interaction terms within the IPTW-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model.ResultsOf the 788 patients with pT3/T4 and/or pN+ UCB (mean [SD] age, 65.3 [9.4] years; 603 [76.5%] male and 185 [23.5%] female), 184 (23.4%) received NAC and RC followed by AC and 604 (76.6%) received NAC and RC followed by observation. The 6-month conditional landmark, IPTW-adjusted Kaplan-Meier curves showed that median OS was significantly longer for NAC and RC followed by AC (29.9 months; interquartile range, 15.1-85.4 months) vs NAC and RC followed by observation (24.2 months; interquartile range, 12.9-58.9 months) (P?=?.046). The 5-year IPTW-adjusted rates of OS were 36.8% for NAC and RC followed by AC vs 24.7% for NAC and RC followed by observation. In the IPTW-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, NAC and RC followed by AC was associated with a significant OS benefit (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.61-0.99; P?=?.046). Interaction term analyses indicated that the OS benefit of NAC and RC followed by AC decreased significantly with age (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99; P?=?.02), whereas no significant interaction was observed with sex (P?=?.82), Charlson comorbidity index (P?=?.51), pT/N stage (P?=?.95), and surgical margin status (P?=?.29).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that AC after NAC and RC may be associated with an OS benefit for patients with pT3/T4 and/or pN+ UCB. The present findings should be considered as preliminary evidence to conduct a randomized clinical trial to address this association.

Dataset Information

Modeling 1-year Relapse-free Survival After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Cystectomy in Patients with Clinical T2-4N0M0 Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma: Endpoints for Phase 2 Trials.

Publications

Modeling 1-year Relapse-free Survival After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Cystectomy in Patients with Clinical T2-4N0M0 Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma: Endpoints for Phase 2 Trials.

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