Dataset Information

Misclassification of Hospital Performance Under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program: Implications for Value-Based Programs.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) use point estimates of 30-day risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRRs) to compare hospitals under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). An important characteristic of this measure is that it is a point estimate with a margin of error, which may affect the CMS's ability to accurately evaluate and distinguish hospital performance in the program.

Objective

To determine the number and percentage of hospitals with a penalty status misclassified under the HRRP.

Design, setting, and participants

This cross-sectional study used the bayesian deconvolution method to estimate the rate of penalty status misclassification for hospitals participating in the HRRP in fiscal year 2019, using data from the CMS Hospital Compare website that were collected between July 1, 2014, and June 30, 2017. Beneficiaries of Medicare fee-for-service coverage who were 65 years or older and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia in hospitals with 25 or more discharges per condition were included in the data set. Data analysis occurred from November 2019 to July 2020.

Exposures

None.

Main outcomes and measures

The rate of penalty status misclassification for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia under the HRRP.

Results

The study included 1633, 2626, and 2705 hospitals for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia, respectively, that participated in the HRRP in fiscal year 2019. The percentages of hospitals that should have been penalized, but were not, were 20.9% (95% CI, 16.0%-25.8%) for acute myocardial infarction, 13.5% (95% CI, 9.8%-17.2%) for heart failure, and 13.2% (95% CI, 10.3%-16.1%) for pneumonia. In contrast, the percentages of hospitals that were incorrectly penalized by the HRRP were 10.1% (95% CI, 5.8%-14.4%) for acute myocardial infarction, 10.9% (95% CI, 7.2%-14.6%) for heart failure, and 12.3% (95% CI, 9.9%-14.6%) for pneumonia.

Conclusions and relevance

The margin of error associated with the 30-day RSRRs resulted in the misclassification of condition-specific penalty status for up to 31% of hospitals. These findings suggest that the hospital-level 30-day RSRR measure may not reliably distinguish hospital performance in the HRRP. This has important implications for CMS value-based programs that use risk-standardized outcomes to evaluate and compare hospital performance.

SUBMITTER: Shen C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7557505 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Importance:The strongest evidence for the effectiveness of Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) involves greater reductions in readmissions for hospitals receiving penalties compared with those not receiving penalties. However, the HRRP penalty is an imperfect measure of hospitals' marginal incentive to avoid a readmission for HRRP-targeted diagnoses. Objectives:To assess the association between hospitals' condition-specific incentives and readmission performance and to examine the responsiveness of hospitals to condition-specific incentives compared with aggregate penalty amounts. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort analysis used Medicare readmissions data from 2823 US short-term acute care hospitals participating in HRRP to compare 3-year (fiscal years 2016-2019) follow-up readmission performance according to tertiles of hospitals' baseline (2016) marginal incentives for each of 5 HRRP-targeted conditions (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, and hip and/or knee surgery). Main Outcomes and Measures:Linear regression models were used to estimate mean change in follow-up readmission performance, measured using the excess readmissions ratio, with baseline condition-specific incentives and aggregate penalty amounts. Results:Of 2823 hospitals that participated in the HRRP from baseline to follow-up, 2280 (81%) had more than 1 excess readmission for 1 or more applicable condition and 543 (19%) did not have any excess readmissions. The mean (SD) financial incentive to reduce readmissions for incentivized hospitals ranged from $8762 ($3699) to $58?158 ($26?198) per 1 avoided readmission. Hospitals with greater incentives for readmission avoidance had greater decreases in readmissions compared with hospitals with smaller incentives (45% greater for pneumonia, 172% greater for acute myocardial infarction, 40% greater for hip and/or knee surgery, 32% greater for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 13% greater for heart failure), whereas hospitals with no incentives had increases in excess readmissions of 4% to 7% (median, 4% [percentage change for nonincentivized hospitals was 3.7% for pneumonia, 4.2% for acute myocardial infarction, 7.1% for hip and/or knee surgery, 3.7% for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 3.7% for heart failure]; P?<?.001). During the study period, each additional $5000 in the incentive amount was associated with a 0.6- to 1.3-percentage point decrease, or up to a 26% decrease, in excess readmissions (P?<?.001). Regression to the mean explained approximately one-third of the results depending on the condition examined. Conclusions and Relevance:The findings suggest that improvements in readmission avoidance are more strongly associated with incentives from the HRRP than with aggregate penalty amounts, suggesting that the program has elicited sizeable changes. Worsened performance among hospitals with small or no incentives may indicate the need for reconsideration of the program's lack of financial rewards for high-performing hospitals.

Project description:Importance:The Medicare Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) is associated with reduced readmission rates, but it is unknown how this decrease occurred. Objective:To examine whether the HRRP was associated with changes in the probability of readmission at emergency department (ED) visits after hospital discharge (ED revisits) overall and depending on whether admission is typically indicated for the patient's condition at the ED revisit. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort study used hospital and ED discharge data from California, Florida, and New York from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014. A difference-in-differences analysis examined change in readmission probability at ED revisits for recently discharged patients; ED revisits with clinical presentations for which admission is typically indicated vs those for which admission is more variable (ie, discretionary) were examined separately. Inclusion criteria were Medicare patients 65 years and older who revisited an ED within 30 days of inpatient discharge. Data were analyzed from December 18, 2018, to September 11, 2019. Exposures:Before and after HRRP implementation among patients initially hospitalized for targeted vs nontargeted conditions. Main Outcomes and Measures:Thirty-day unplanned hospital readmissions at the ED revisit. Results:A total of 9?914?068 index hospitalizations were identified in California, Florida, and New York from 2010 to 2014. Of 2?052?096 discharges in 2010, 1?168?126 (56.9%) discharges were women and 566?957 discharges (27.6%) were among patients older than 85 years. Among 1?421?407 patients with an unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge, 1?266?107 patients (89.1%) were admitted through the ED. A total of 1?906?498 ED revisits were identified. After adjusting for patient demographic and clinical characteristics from the index hospitalization, HRRP implementation was associated with fewer readmissions from the ED, with a difference-in-difference estimate of -0.9 (95% CI, -1.4 to -0.4) percentage points (P?<?.001), or a 1.4% relative decrease from the 65.8% pre-HRRP readmission rates. Implementation of the HRRP was associated with fewer readmissions at the ED revisit involving clinical presentations for which admission is typically indicated (difference-in-differences estimate, -1.1 [95% CI, -1.6 to -0.6] percentage points; P?<?.001), or a 1.2% relative decrease from the 93.6% pre-HRRP rate. These results appear to be associated with patients presenting at the ED revisit with congestive heart failure (difference-in-difference estimate, -1.2 [95% CI, -2.0 to -0.4] percentage points; P?=?.003). Conclusions and Relevance:These findings suggest that implementation of the HRRP was associated with a lower likelihood of readmission for recently discharged patients presenting to the ED, specifically for congestive heart failure. This highlights the critical role of the ED in readmission reduction under the HRRP and suggests that patient outcomes after HRRP implementation should be further studied.