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Near-real-time monitoring of global CO₂ emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO₂ emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO₂ emissions (-1551 Mt CO₂) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic's effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.

SUBMITTER: Liu Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7560733 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Liu Zhu Z Ciais Philippe P Deng Zhu Z Lei Ruixue R Davis Steven J SJ Feng Sha S Zheng Bo B Cui Duo D Dou Xinyu X Zhu Biqing B Guo Rui R Ke Piyu P Sun Taochun T Lu Chenxi C He Pan P Wang Yuan Y Yue Xu X Wang Yilong Y Lei Yadong Y Zhou Hao H Cai Zhaonan Z Wu Yuhui Y Guo Runtao R Han Tingxuan T Xue Jinjun J Boucher Olivier O Boucher Eulalie E Chevallier Frédéric F Tanaka Katsumasa K Wei Yiming Y Zhong Haiwang H Kang Chongqing C Zhang Ning N Chen Bin B Xi Fengming F Liu Miaomiao M Bréon François-Marie FM Lu Yonglong Y Zhang Qiang Q Guan Dabo D Gong Peng P Kammen Daniel M DM He Kebin K Schellnhuber Hans Joachim HJ

Nature communications 20201014 1

The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (-1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downt ...[more]

PMID: 33057164

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Project description:We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N, 123.01° E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous studies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (ΔCO2/ΔCH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO2 and CH4 fluxes, we found that the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH4 emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020-2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011-2019), during which relatively stable ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 ± 8%, - 36 ± 7%, and - 12 ± 8%, respectively, (- 10 ± 9% for JFM overall) relative to 2011-2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 ± 8%, - 2 ± 10%, and 29 ± 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 ± 10% for JFM overall) and 20 ± 9%, - 3 ± 10%, and - 10 ± 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 ± 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6.

Dataset Information

Near-real-time monitoring of global CO₂ emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Publications

Near-real-time monitoring of global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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