Dataset Information

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

ABSTRACT: The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious individual; the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics; and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak, and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer and autumn season transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Late-summer arrivals were more likely to produce large epidemics within a short peak time. Epidemics within this favorable period had an average of 11% of the susceptible population infected at the peak, at an average peak time of 95 days. We also demonstrated that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics, with warmer starting temperatures producing large epidemics with a short peak time and vice versa. Overall, our quantities of interest were most sensitive to variance in the date of arrival, seasonal temperature, transmission rates, mortality rate, and the mosquito population; the magnitude of sensitivity differs across quantities. Our model could serve as a useful guide in the development of effective local control and mitigation strategies for dengue fever in Madeira Island.

SUBMITTER: Salami D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7561266 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

Salami Donald D Capinha César C Sousa Carla Alexandra CA Martins Maria do Rosário Oliveira MDRO Lord Cynthia C

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20201005 10

The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is crit ...[more]

PMID: 33017443

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Project description:The ability to effectively modify behaviours is increasingly relevant to attain and maintain a good health status. Current behaviour-change models and theories present two main approaches for (healthier) decision-making: one analytical/logical, and one experiential/emotional/intuitive. Therefore, to achieve an integral and dynamic understanding of the public perceptions both approaches should be considered: community surveys should measure cognitive understanding of health-risk contexts, and also explore how past experiences affect this understanding. In 2011, community perceptions regarding domestic source reduction were assessed in Madeira Island?. After Madeira's first dengue outbreak (2012) a unique opportunity to compare perceptions before and after the outbreak-experience occurred. This was the aim of this study, which constituted the first report on the effect of an outbreak experience on community perceptions regarding a specific vector-borne disease. A cross-sectional survey was performed within female residents at the most aegypti-infested areas. Perceptions regarding domestic source reduction were assessed according to the Essential Perception (EP)-analysis tool. A matching process paired individuals from studies performed before and after the outbreak, ensuring homogeneity in six determinant variables. After the outbreak, there were more female residents who assimilated the concepts considered to be essential to understand the proposed behaviour. Nevertheless, no significant difference was observed in the number of female residents who achieved the defined 'minimal understanding''. Moreover, most of the population (95.5%) still believed at least in one of the identified myths. After the outbreak some myths disappeared and others appeared. The present study quantified and explored how the experience of an outbreak influenced the perception regarding a dengue-preventive behaviour. The outbreak experience surprisingly led to the appearance of new myths within the population, apart from the expected increase of relevant concepts' assimilation. Monitoring public perceptions is therefore crucial to make preventing dengue campaigns updated and worthy.

Dataset Information

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

Publications

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

Similar Datasets

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