Dataset Information

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

ABSTRACT: The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious individual; the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics; and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak, and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer and autumn season transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Late-summer arrivals were more likely to produce large epidemics within a short peak time. Epidemics within this favorable period had an average of 11% of the susceptible population infected at the peak, at an average peak time of 95 days. We also demonstrated that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics, with warmer starting temperatures producing large epidemics with a short peak time and vice versa. Overall, our quantities of interest were most sensitive to variance in the date of arrival, seasonal temperature, transmission rates, mortality rate, and the mosquito population; the magnitude of sensitivity differs across quantities. Our model could serve as a useful guide in the development of effective local control and mitigation strategies for dengue fever in Madeira Island.

SUBMITTER: Salami D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7561266 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

Salami Donald D Capinha César C Sousa Carla Alexandra CA Martins Maria do Rosário Oliveira MDRO Lord Cynthia C

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20201005 10

The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is crit ...[more]

PMID: 33017443

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Project description:The ability to effectively modify behaviours is increasingly relevant to attain and maintain a good health status. Current behaviour-change models and theories present two main approaches for (healthier) decision-making: one analytical/logical, and one experiential/emotional/intuitive. Therefore, to achieve an integral and dynamic understanding of the public perceptions both approaches should be considered: community surveys should measure cognitive understanding of health-risk contexts, and also explore how past experiences affect this understanding. In 2011, community perceptions regarding domestic source reduction were assessed in Madeira Island?. After Madeira's first dengue outbreak (2012) a unique opportunity to compare perceptions before and after the outbreak-experience occurred. This was the aim of this study, which constituted the first report on the effect of an outbreak experience on community perceptions regarding a specific vector-borne disease. A cross-sectional survey was performed within female residents at the most aegypti-infested areas. Perceptions regarding domestic source reduction were assessed according to the Essential Perception (EP)-analysis tool. A matching process paired individuals from studies performed before and after the outbreak, ensuring homogeneity in six determinant variables. After the outbreak, there were more female residents who assimilated the concepts considered to be essential to understand the proposed behaviour. Nevertheless, no significant difference was observed in the number of female residents who achieved the defined 'minimal understanding''. Moreover, most of the population (95.5%) still believed at least in one of the identified myths. After the outbreak some myths disappeared and others appeared. The present study quantified and explored how the experience of an outbreak influenced the perception regarding a dengue-preventive behaviour. The outbreak experience surprisingly led to the appearance of new myths within the population, apart from the expected increase of relevant concepts' assimilation. Monitoring public perceptions is therefore crucial to make preventing dengue campaigns updated and worthy.

Project description:BackgroundThe Madeira Island (Portugal; 32°24'-33°07'N, 16°16-17°16'W; 796 km2) is an oceanic island located in the North Atlantic, about 980 km south of Portugal and about 700 km west of the African coast. The presence of freshwater invertebrates in oceanic islands has always raised questions concerning dispersal, colonisation and evolution. Therefore, the freshwater fauna of Madeira Island has attracted the interest of many researchers in the past, the first publications going back to the nineteenth century. Initial studies were mainly taxonomic, resulting in a checklist of the Madeira freshwater macroinvertebrates with 240 taxa. As typical from oceanic islands, freshwater invertebrates are characterised by low diversity, with some taxonomic groups absent. Although freshwater Madeiran macroinvertebrates are a well-studied group, geographical information of diversity distribution is still scarce. Therefore, more studies are needed, especially georeferenced data of diversity and distribution of macroinvertebrate assemblages, to provide valuable information for improving knowledge and the development of typologically appropriate monitoring and conservation programmes and restoration strategies for local stakeholders.New informationThe results of the present study revealed 713 occurrences in 40 sampling points in Madeira Island streams. The occurrence data showed 70 different aquatic taxa belonging to 21 orders and 53 families. Amongst our occurrence data, 15 endemic taxa (22.1%) from Madeira Archipelago were found. In addition, different families of Collembola and different taxa of Copepoda (Onychiuridae, Poduridae, Isotomidae, Entomobryidae, Sminthuridae) comprised new records for the Madeira streams. Therefore, further taxonomic and ecological studies on freshwater invertebrates from Madeira Island should be done with a particular focus on these lesser-known groups. Thus, our data increase the geographical data distribution of freshwater macroinvertebrates and their diversity in Madeira Island. This database is an update of geographical information of diversity distribution of Madeira freshwater macroinvertebrates known groups. This information is essential for a better understanding of community composition, diversity, occurrence or spatial distribution, which will help explore different research questions on different research areas, such as community ecology and biogeography.

Dataset Information

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

Publications

Simulation models of dengue transmission in Funchal, Madeira Island: Influence of seasonality.

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