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COVID-19 pandemic, dengue epidemic, and climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh: Scenario assessment for strategic management and policy implications.

ABSTRACT: Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The country experiences simultaneously the global pandemic, exceptionally prolonged flood along with the recovery stage from the damages due to the cyclone (Amphan). Therefore, these multiple factors have been putting pressure on losing millions of homes, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. This study aimed to assess the potential impact of a simultaneous strike of climatic hazards and infectious disease outbreaks and their possible strategic management in Bangladesh under different scenarios. A mixed methodological approach was followed in this study including a questionnaire survey, in-depth discussion with experts, and extensive literature review to assess the multi-hazard scenario in a resource-limited setting with high population density. A set of statistical techniques were used to analyze the responses (n = 1590) from different social groups (healthcare professionals, academicians, students, Government and NGO officials, and businessman) under three scenarios. The results revealed the high possibility of aggravating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic if there is a climatic hazard such as flood, cyclone have appeared. The majority of the respondents agreed that the situation will become more devastating if there is another outbreak of diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The poor and fragile healthcare system of this country cannot bear such unprecedented pressure. The lack of risk assessment and communication, lack of sectoral coordination might restrict the contingency plan of the government. Therefore, considering the unprecedented worst cases a stringent strategic plan for emergency response, short term and long-term management should have to be formulated. Resilience building through proactive planning and implementation of integrated, inclusive and sustainable strategies will be effective to ensure the health and socio-economic security for multi-hazard threats in the country.

SUBMITTER: Rahman MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7561529 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 pandemic, dengue epidemic, and climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh: Scenario assessment for strategic management and policy implications.

Rahman Md Mostafizur MM Bodrud-Doza Md M Shammi Mashura M Md Towfiqul Islam Abu Reza AR Moniruzzaman Khan Abu Sadat AS

Environmental research 20201016

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as de ...[more]

PMID: 33069704

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Project description:AbstractCommunity transmission of COVID-19 is happening in Bangladesh-the country which did not have a noteworthy health policy and legislative structures to combat a pandemic like COVID-19. Early strategic planning and groundwork for evolving and established challenges are crucial to assemble resources and react in an appropriate timely manner. This article, therefore, focuses on the public perception of comparative lockdown scenario analysis and how they may affect the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the strategic management regime of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh socio-economically as well as the implications of the withdrawal of partial lockdown plan. Scenario-based public perceptions were collected via a purposive sampling survey method through a questionnaire. Datasets were analysed through a set of statistical techniques including classical test theory, principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, Pearson's correlation matrix and linear regression analysis. There were good associations among the lockdown scenarios and response strategies to be formulated. Scenario 1 describes how the death and infection rate will increase if the Bangladesh Government withdraws the existing partial lockdown. Scenario 2 outlines that limited people's movement will enable low-level community transmission of COVID-19 with the infection and death rate will increase slowly (r = 0.540, p < 0.01). Moreover, there will be less supply of necessities of daily use with a price hike (r = 0.680, p < 0.01). In scenario 3, full lockdown will reduce community transmission and death from COVID-19 (r = 0.545, p < 0.01). However, along with the other problems gender discrimination and gender-based violence will increase rapidly (r = 0.661, p < 0.01). Due to full lockdown, the formal and informal business, economy, and education sector will be hampered severely (R = 0.695). Subsequently, there was a strong association between the loss of livelihood and the unemployment rate which will increase due to business shutdown (p < 0.01). This will lead to the severe sufferings of poor and vulnerable communities in both urban and rural areas (p < 0.01). All these will further aggravate the humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable groups in the country in the coming months to be followed which will undoubtedly affect the Bangladesh targets to achieve the SDGs of 2030 and other development plans that need to be adjusted. From our analysis, it was apparent that maintaining partial lockdown with business and economic activities with social distancing and public health guidelines is the best strategy to maintain. However, as the government withdrew the partial lockdown, inclusive and transparent risk communication towards the public should be followed. Recovery and strengthening of the health sector, economy, industry, agriculture, and food security should be focused on under the "new normal standard of life" following health guidelines and social distancing. Proper response plans and strategic management are necessary for the sustainability of the nation.Graphic abstract

Project description:Current knowledge on the biological responses of freshwater fish under projected scenarios of climate change remains limited. Here, we examine differences in the protein configuration of two endemic Iberian freshwater fish species, Squalius carolitertii and the critically endangered S. torgalensis that inhabit in the Atlantic-type northern and in the Mediterranean-type southwestern regions, respectively. We performed protein structure modeling of fourteen genes linked to protein folding, energy metabolism, circadian rhythms and immune responses. Structural differences in proteins between the two species were found for HSC70, FKBP52, HIF1? and GPB1. For S. torgalensis, besides structural differences, we found higher thermostability for two proteins (HSP90 and GBP1), which can be advantageous in a warmer environment. Additionally, we investigated how these species might respond to projected scenarios of 3° climate change warming, acidification (?pH = -0.4), and their combined effects. Significant changes in gene expression were observed in response to all treatments, particularly under the combined warming and acidification. While S. carolitertii presented changes in gene expression for multiple proteins related to folding (hsp90aa1, hsc70, fkbp4 and stip1), only one such gene was altered in S. torgalensis (stip1). However, S. torgalensis showed a greater capacity for energy production under both the acidification and combined scenarios by increasing cs gene expression and maintaining ldha gene expression in muscle. Overall, these findings suggest that S. torgalensis is better prepared to cope with projected climate change. Worryingly, under the simulated scenarios, disturbances to circadian rhythm and immune system genes (cry1aa, per1a and gbp1) raise concerns for the persistence of both species, highlighting the need to consider multi-stressor effects when evaluating climate change impacts upon fish. This work also highlights that assessments of the potential of endangered freshwater species to cope with environmental change are crucial to help decision-makers adopt future conservation strategies.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 pandemic, dengue epidemic, and climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh: Scenario assessment for strategic management and policy implications.

Publications

COVID-19 pandemic, dengue epidemic, and climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh: Scenario assessment for strategic management and policy implications.

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