Dataset Information

Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar.

ABSTRACT: African swine fever (ASF) severely threatens the swine industry worldwide, given its spread and the absence of an available licensed vaccine, and has caused severe economic losses. Its persistence in wild boar (WB), longer than in domestic pig farms, and the knowledge gaps in ASF epidemiology hinder ASF virus (ASFV) eradication. Even in areas where disease is effectively controlled and ASFV is no longer detected, declaring eradication is difficult as seropositive WBs may still be detected. The aim of this work was to estimate the main ASF epidemiological parameters specific for the north of Sardinia, Italy. The estimated basic (R0) and effective (Re) reproduction numbers demonstrate that the ASF epidemic is declining and under control with an R0 of 1.139 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.123-1.153) and Re of 0.802 (95% CI = 0.612-0.992). In the last phases of an epidemic, these estimates are crucial tools for identifying the intensity of interventions required to definitively eradicate the disease. This approach is useful to understand if and when the detection of residual seropositive WB is no longer associated with any further ASFV circulation.

SUBMITTER: Loi F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7563513 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar.

Loi Federica F Cappai Stefano S Laddomada Alberto A Feliziani Francesco F Oggiano Annalisa A Franzoni Giulia G Rolesu Sandro S Guberti Vittorio V

Vaccines 20200912 3

African swine fever (ASF) severely threatens the swine industry worldwide, given its spread and the absence of an available licensed vaccine, and has caused severe economic losses. Its persistence in wild boar (WB), longer than in domestic pig farms, and the knowledge gaps in ASF epidemiology hinder ASF virus (ASFV) eradication. Even in areas where disease is effectively controlled and ASFV is no longer detected, declaring eradication is difficult as seropositive WBs may still be detected. The a ...[more]

PMID: 32932614

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Project description:The first cases of African swine fever (ASF) were detected in the Lithuanian wild boar population in 2014. Since then, the disease spread slowly through the whole country, affecting both, wild boar and domestic pigs. In the other Baltic states, which both are also affected by ASF since 2014, the recent course of ASF prevalence suggests that the countries might be well under way of disease elimination. In contrast, in Lithuania the epidemic seems to be still in full progress. In the present study, we aimed to extend a previous prevalence study in Lithuania. Looking at ASF virus (ASFV) and seroprevalence estimates of wild boar in all months of 2018 and in all affected municipalities in Lithuania, the course of ASF was evaluated on a temporal and spatial scale. A non-spatial beta-binomial model was used to correct for under- or overestimation of the average prevalence estimates. Within 2018 no big differences between the prevalence estimates were seen over time. Despite of the lower sample size, highest ASFV prevalence estimates were found in dead wild boar, suggesting higher detection rates through passive surveillance than through active surveillance. Accordingly, with the maximum prevalence of 87.5% in May 2018, the ASFV prevalence estimates were very high in wild boar found dead. The number of samples originating from hunted animals (active surveillance) predominated clearly. However, the ASFV prevalence in those animals was lower with a maximum value of 2.1%, emphasizing the high value of passive surveillance. A slight increase of the seroprevalence in hunted wild boar could be seen over time. In the center of Lithuania, a cluster of municipalities with high ASFV and seroprevalence estimates was found. The results of the study indicate that ASFV is still circulating within the Lithuanian wild boar population, constituting a permanent risk of disease transmission into domestic pig holdings. However, additional, more recent data analyses are necessary to re-evaluate the course of ASF in Lithuania and thus, to be able to make a statement about the stage of the ASF epidemic in the country. This is of huge importance for Lithuania for evaluating control measures and their efficacy, but also for neighbouring countries to assess the risk of disease spread from Lithuania.

Project description:African swine fever (ASF) is a serious global concern from an ecological and economic point of view. While it is well established that its main transmission routes comprise contact between infected and susceptible animals and transmission through contaminated carcasses, the specific mechanism leading to its long-term persistence is still not clear. Among others, a proposed mechanism involves the potential role of convalescent individuals, which would be able to shed the virus after the end of the acute infection. Using a spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based model, we tested: (1) if ASF can persist when transmission occurs only through infected wild boars and infected carcasses; (2) if the animals that survive ASF can play a relevant role in increasing ASF persistence chances; (3) how hunting pressure can affect the ASF probability to persist. The scenario in which only direct and carcass-mediated transmission were contemplated had 52% probability of virus persistence 10 years after the initial outbreak. The inclusion of survivor-mediated transmission corresponded to slightly higher persistence probabilities (57%). ASF prevalence during the endemic phase was generally low, ranging 0.1-0.2%. The proportion of seropositive individuals gradually decreased with time and ranged 4.5-6.6%. Our results indicate that direct and carcass-mediated infection routes are sufficient to explain and justify the long-term persistence of ASF at low wild boar density and the ongoing geographic expansion of the disease front in the European continent. During the initial years of an ASF outbreak, hunting should be carefully evaluated as a management tool, in terms of potential benefits and negative side-effects, and combined with an intensive effort for the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses. During the endemic phase, further increasing hunting effort should not be considered as an effective strategy. Additional effort should be dedicated to finding and removing as many wild boar carcasses as possible.

Dataset Information

Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar.

Publications

Mathematical Approach to Estimating the Main Epidemiological Parameters of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar.

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