Dataset Information

Machine Learning-Based Predictive Modeling of Postpartum Depression.

ABSTRACT: Postpartum depression is a serious health issue beyond the mental health problems that affect mothers after childbirth. There are no predictive tools available to screen postpartum depression that also allow early interventions. We aimed to develop predictive models for postpartum depression using machine learning (ML) approaches. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System 2012-2013 with 28,755 records (3339 postpartum depression and 25,416 normal cases). The imbalance between the two groups was addressed by a balanced resampling using both random down-sampling and the synthetic minority over-sampling technique. Nine different ML algorithms, including random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting, support vector machines (SVM), recursive partitioning and regression trees, naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbor (kNN), logistic regression, and neural network, were employed with 10-fold cross-validation to evaluate the models. The overall classification accuracies of the nine models ranged from 0.650 (kNN) to 0.791 (RF). The RF method achieved the highest area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.884, followed by SVM, which achieved the second-best performance with an AUC value of 0.864. Predictive modeling developed using ML-approaches may thus be used as a prediction (screening) tool for postpartum depression in future studies.

SUBMITTER: Shin D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7564708 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine Learning-Based Predictive Modeling of Postpartum Depression.

Shin Dayeon D Lee Kyung Ju KJ Adeluwa Temidayo T Hur Junguk J

Journal of clinical medicine 20200908 9

Postpartum depression is a serious health issue beyond the mental health problems that affect mothers after childbirth. There are no predictive tools available to screen postpartum depression that also allow early interventions. We aimed to develop predictive models for postpartum depression using machine learning (ML) approaches. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System 2012-2013 with 28,755 records (3339 postpartum depression and ...[more]

PMID: 32911726

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the COVID-19 pandemic has left an unprecedented impact worldwide, countries such as the United States have reported the most substantial incidence of COVID-19 cases worldwide. Within the United States, various sociodemographic factors have played a role in the creation of regional disparities. Regional disparities have resulted in the unequal spread of disease between US counties, underscoring the need for efficient and accurate predictive modeling strategies to inform public health officials and reduce the burden on health care systems. Furthermore, despite the widespread accessibility of COVID-19 vaccines across the United States, vaccination rates have become stagnant, necessitating predictive modeling to identify important factors impacting vaccination uptake.ObjectiveThis study aims to determine the association between sociodemographic factors and vaccine uptake across counties in the United States.MethodsSociodemographic data on fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were sourced from several online databases such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Census Bureau COVID-19 Site. Machine learning analysis was performed using XGBoost and sociodemographic data.ResultsOur model predicted COVID-19 vaccination uptake across US counties with 62% accuracy. In addition, it identified location, education, ethnicity, income, and household access to the internet as the most critical sociodemographic features in predicting vaccination uptake in US counties. Lastly, the model produced a choropleth demonstrating areas of low and high vaccination rates, which can be used by health care authorities in future pandemics to visualize and prioritize areas of low vaccination and design targeted vaccination campaigns.ConclusionsOur study reveals that sociodemographic characteristics are predictors of vaccine uptake rates across counties in the United States and, if leveraged appropriately, can assist policy makers and public health officials to understand vaccine uptake rates and craft policies to improve them.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Frailty is one of the most critical age-related conditions in older adults. It is often recognized as a syndrome of physiological decline in late life, characterized by a marked vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. A clear operational definition of frailty, however, has not been agreed so far. There is a wide range of studies on the detection of frailty and their association with mortality. Several of these studies have focused on the possible risk factors associated with frailty in the elderly population while predicting who will be at increased risk of frailty is still overlooked in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE:The objective of our study was to develop predictive models for frailty conditions in older people using different machine learning methods based on a database of clinical characteristics and socioeconomic factors. METHODS:An administrative health database containing 1,095,612 elderly people aged 65 or older with 58 input variables and 6 output variables was used. We first identify and define six problems/outputs as surrogates of frailty. We then resolve the imbalanced nature of the data through resampling process and a comparative study between the different machine learning (ML) algorithms - Artificial neural network (ANN), Genetic programming (GP), Support vector machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR) and Decision tree (DT) - was carried out. The performance of each model was evaluated using a separate unseen dataset. RESULTS:Predicting mortality outcome has shown higher performance with ANN (TPR 0.81, TNR 0.76, accuracy 0.78, F1-score 0.79) and SVM (TPR 0.77, TNR 0.80, accuracy 0.79, F1-score 0.78) than predicting the other outcomes. On average, over the six problems, the DT classifier has shown the lowest accuracy, while other models (GP, LR, RF, ANN, and SVM) performed better. All models have shown lower accuracy in predicting an event of an emergency admission with red code than predicting fracture and disability. In predicting urgent hospitalization, only SVM achieved better performance (TPR 0.75, TNR 0.77, accuracy 0.73, F1-score 0.76) with the 10-fold cross validation compared with other models in all evaluation metrics. CONCLUSIONS:We developed machine learning models for predicting frailty conditions (mortality, urgent hospitalization, disability, fracture, and emergency admission). The results show that the prediction performance of machine learning models significantly varies from problem to problem in terms of different evaluation metrics. Through further improvement, the model that performs better can be used as a base for developing decision-support tools to improve early identification and prediction of frail older adults.

Dataset Information

Machine Learning-Based Predictive Modeling of Postpartum Depression.

Publications

Machine Learning-Based Predictive Modeling of Postpartum Depression.

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