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Prediction of Severe Lymphopenia During Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer: Development and Validation of a Pretreatment Nomogram.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:In patients with esophageal cancer, occurrence of severe radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy has been associated with worse progression-free and overall survival. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a pretreatment clinical nomogram for the prediction of grade 4 lymphopenia. METHODS AND MATERIALS:A development set of consecutive patients who underwent chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer and an independent validation set of patients from another institution were identified. Grade 4 lymphopenia was defined as an absolute lymphocyte count nadir during chemoradiation therapy of <0.2 × 103/?L. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to create a prediction model for grade 4 lymphopenia in the development set, which was internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated by applying the model to the validation set. The model was presented as a nomogram yielding 4 risk groups. RESULTS:Among 860 included patients, 322 (37%) experienced grade 4 lymphopenia. Higher age, larger planning target volume in interaction with lower body mass index, photon- rather than proton-based therapy, and lower baseline absolute lymphocyte count were predictive in the final model (corrected c-statistic, 0.76). External validation in 144 patients, among whom 58 (40%) had grade 4 lymphopenia, yielded a c-statistic of 0.71. Four nomogram-based risk groups yielded predicted risk rates of 10%, 24%, 43%, and 70%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:A pretreatment clinical nomogram was developed and validated for the prediction of grade 4 radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer. The nomogram can risk stratify individual patients suitable for lymphopenia-mitigating strategies or potential future therapeutic approaches to ultimately improve survival.

SUBMITTER: van Rossum PSN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7564893 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan - Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Severe Lymphopenia During Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer: Development and Validation of a Pretreatment Nomogram.

van Rossum Peter S N PSN Deng Wei W Routman David M DM Liu Amy Y AY Xu Cai C Shiraishi Yutaka Y Peters Max M Merrell Kenneth W KW Hallemeier Christopher L CL Mohan Radhe R Lin Steven H SH

Practical radiation oncology 20190729 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>In patients with esophageal cancer, occurrence of severe radiation-induced lymphopenia during chemoradiation therapy has been associated with worse progression-free and overall survival. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a pretreatment clinical nomogram for the prediction of grade 4 lymphopenia.<h4>Methods and materials</h4>A development set of consecutive patients who underwent chemoradiation therapy for esophageal cancer and an independent validation set of ...[more]

PMID: 31369887

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Project description:BackgroundThe current study aimed to comprehensively analyze the clinical prognostic factors of malignant esophageal fistula (MEF). Furthermore, this study sought to establish and validate prognostic nomograms incorporating radiomics and clinical factors to predict overall survival and median survival after fistula for patients with MEF.MethodsThe records of 76 patients with MEF were retrospectively analyzed. A stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed to screen independent prognostic factors and develop clinical nomograms. Radiomic features were extracted from prefistula CT images and post fistula CT images. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Cox regression algorithm was used to filter radiomic features and avoid overfitting. Radiomic signature was a linear combination of optimal features and corresponding coefficients. The joint prognostic nomograms was constructed by radiomic signatures and clinical features. All models were validated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index), caliberation and bootstrap validation.ResultsFor overall survival, age, prealbumin, KPS and interval between diagnosis of esophageal cancer and fistula were identified as independent prognostic factors and incorporated into the clinical nomogram. Age, prealbumin, serum albumin, KPS and neutrophil proportion were selected for the clinical nomogram of post fistula survival. The C-index of overall survival nomogram was 0.719 (95% CI: 0.645-0.793) and that was 0.722 (95% CI: 0.653-0.791) in the post fistula survival nomogram. The radiomic signature developed by radiomic features of prefistula CT showed a significant correlation with both overall survival and post fistula survival. The C-index of joint nomogarm for overall survival and post fistula survival was 0.831 (95% CI: 0.757-0.905) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.686-0.854), respectively. The calibration curve showed the joint nomograms outperformed the clinical ones.ConclusionsThe study presents nomograms incorporating independent clinical risk factors and radiomic signature to predict the prognosis of MEF. This prognostic classification system has the potential to guide therapeutic decisions for patients with malignant esophageal fistulas.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Severe Lymphopenia During Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer: Development and Validation of a Pretreatment Nomogram.

Publications

Prediction of Severe Lymphopenia During Chemoradiation Therapy for Esophageal Cancer: Development and Validation of a Pretreatment Nomogram.

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