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Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control.

ABSTRACT: The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.

SUBMITTER: He D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7565242 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control.

He Daihai D Zhao Shi S Xu Xiaoke X Lin Qiangying Q Zhuang Zian Z Cao Peihua P Wang Maggie H MH Lou Yijun Y Xiao Li L Wu Ye Y Yang Lin L

BMC public health 20201016 1

The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is ...[more]

PMID: 33066755

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Project description:Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are multipotent adult stem cells present in virtually all tissues; they have potent self-renewal capacity and differentiate into multiple cell types. For many reasons, these cells are a promising therapeutic alternative to treat patients with severe COVID-19 and pulmonary post-COVID sequelae. These cells are not only essential for tissue regeneration; they can also alter the pulmonary environment through the paracrine secretion of several mediators. They can control or promote inflammation, induce other stem cells differentiation, restrain the virus load, and much more. In this work, we performed single-cell RNA-seq data analysis of MSCs in bronchoalveolar lavage samples from control individuals and COVID-19 patients with mild and severe clinical conditions. When we compared samples from mild cases with control individuals, most genes transcriptionally upregulated in COVID-19 were involved in cell proliferation. However, a new set of genes with distinct biological functions was upregulated when we compared severely affected with mild COVID-19 patients. In this analysis, the cells upregulated genes related to cell dispersion/migration and induced the γ-activated sequence (GAS) genes, probably triggered by IFNGR1 and IFNGR2. Then, IRF-1 was upregulated, one of the GAS target genes, leading to the interferon-stimulated response (ISR) and the overexpression of many signature target genes. The MSCs also upregulated genes involved in the mesenchymal-epithelial transition, virus control, cell chemotaxis, and used the cytoplasmic RNA danger sensors RIG-1, MDA5, and PKR. In a non-comparative analysis, we observed that MSCs from severe cases do not express many NF-κB upstream receptors, such as Toll-like (TLRs) TLR-3, -7, and -8; tumor necrosis factor (TNFR1 or TNFR2), RANK, CD40, and IL-1R1. Indeed, many NF-κB inhibitors were upregulated, including PPP2CB, OPTN, NFKBIA, and FHL2, suggesting that MSCs do not play a role in the "cytokine storm" observed. Therefore, lung MSCs in COVID-19 sense immune danger and act protectively in concert with the pulmonary environment, confirming their therapeutic potential in cell-based therapy for COVID-19. The transcription of MSCs senescence markers is discussed.

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Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control.

Publications

Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control.

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