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Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.

ABSTRACT: Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additional estimation methods are required. Here, we develop such methods to analyze longitudinal incidence data on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its sequela, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in a highly endemic community in Bangladesh. Incorporating recent data on VL and PKDL infectiousness, we show that while VL cases drive transmission when incidence is high, the contribution of PKDL increases significantly as VL incidence declines (reaching 55% in this setting). Transmission is highly focal: 85% of mean distances from inferred infectors to their secondary VL cases were <300 m, and estimated average times from infector onset to secondary case infection were <4 mo for 88% of VL infectors, but up to 2.9 y for PKDL infectors. Estimated numbers of secondary cases per VL and PKDL case varied from 0 to 6 and were strongly correlated with the infector's duration of symptoms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prevention of PKDL could have reduced overall VL incidence by up to 25%. These results highlight the need for prompt detection and treatment of PKDL to achieve VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent and provide quantitative estimates to guide spatiotemporally targeted interventions against VL.

SUBMITTER: Chapman LAC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7568327 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.

Chapman Lloyd A C LAC Spencer Simon E F SEF Pollington Timothy M TM Jewell Chris P CP Mondal Dinesh D Alvar Jorge J Hollingsworth T Déirdre TD Cameron Mary M MM Bern Caryn C Medley Graham F GF

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200924 41

Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additio ...[more]

PMID: 32973088

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Project description:Introduction:To sustain the achievement of kala-azar elimination program (KEP), early detection and treatment of the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and associated modalities such as treatment failure (TF), relapse VL (RVL), and Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is the cornerstone. A predictive biomarker for VL development and related complications could also play a crucial role in curtailing disease incidence and transmission. Investigations to find a biomarker with prospective capabilities are, however, scarce. Using samples and known clinical outcomes generated within two previous longitudinal cohort studies, we aimed to determine if fluctuations in serum anti-rK39 antibody levels could provide such predictive value. Materials and Methods:Serum samples collected at four different time points (Baseline, 12, 18, and 24 months) from 16 patients who had developed VL within the monitoring period and 15 of their asymptomatic healthy controls counterparts were investigated. To investigate potential prediction of VL related complications, serum samples of 32 PKDL, 10 RVL, 07 TF, and 38 cured VL from a single dose AmBisome trial were analyzed. Of this second panel, all patients were monitored for 5 years and sera were collected at four time points (Baseline then 1, 6, and 12 months after treatment). The level of anti-rK39 antibodies in archived samples was measured by a semi-quantitative ELISA. Results:The mean antibody level was significantly higher in VL patients compared to their asymptomatic healthy counterparts at each time point. Likewise, we observed a trend toward elevations in antibody levels for PKDL, RVL, TF relative to the reducing levels observed in cured VL. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found a promising predictive power of rK39 antibody levels to reveal progression from asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infection stage to VL, defined as 87.5% sensitive and 95% specific. Following treatment, rk39 antibody notably showed 100% sensitivity and 95% specificity in predicting TF. Conclusion:Our data indicate that the relative quantity of serum anti-rK39 antibody has promise within either a predictive or prognostic algorithm for VL and VL-related modalities. These could enable VL control programs to implement more effective measures to eliminate the disease. Further research is, however, imperative to standardize the rK39 antibody ELISA between sites prior to broader use.

Project description:BackgroundWith widespread resistance to antimonials in Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent, Miltefosine (MIL) has been introduced as the first line therapy. Surveillance of MIL susceptibility in natural populations of Leishmania donovani is vital to preserve it and support the VL elimination program.Methodology and principal findingsWe measured in vitro susceptibility towards MIL and paromomycin (PMM) in L. donovani isolated from VL and PKDL, pre- and post-treatment cases, using an amastigote-macrophage model. MIL susceptibility of post-treatment isolates from cured VL cases (n = 13, mean IC(50)±SD = 2.43±1.44 µM), was comparable (p>0.05) whereas that from relapses (n = 3, mean IC(50) = 4.72±1.99 µM) was significantly higher (p = 0.04) to that of the pre-treatment group (n = 6, mean IC(50) = 1.86±0.75 µM). In PKDL, post-treatment isolates (n = 3, mean IC(50) = 16.13±2.64 µM) exhibited significantly lower susceptibility (p = 0.03) than pre-treatment isolates (n = 5, mean IC(50) = 8.63±0.94 µM). Overall, PKDL isolates (n = 8, mean IC(50) = 11.45±4.19 µM) exhibited significantly higher tolerance (p<0.0001) to MIL than VL isolates (n = 22, mean IC(50) = 2.58±1.58 µM). Point mutations in the miltefosine transporter (LdMT) and its beta subunit (LdRos3) genes previously reported in parasites with experimentally induced MIL resistance were not present in the clinical isolates. Further, the mRNA expression profile of these genes was comparable in the pre- and post-treatment isolates. Parasite isolates from VL and PKDL cases were uniformly susceptible to PMM with respective mean IC(50) = 7.05±2.24 µM and 6.18±1.51 µM.ConclusionThe in vitro susceptibility of VL isolates remained unchanged at the end of MIL treatment; however, isolates from relapsed VL and PKDL cases had lower susceptibility than the pre-treatment isolates. PKDL isolates were more tolerant towards MIL in comparison with VL isolates. All parasite isolates were uniformly susceptible to PMM. Mutations in the LdMT and LdRos3 genes as well as changes in the expression of these genes previously correlated with experimental resistance to MIL could not be verified for the field isolates.

Project description:BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL or kala azar) is the most serious form of human leishmaniasis, responsible for over 20,000 deaths annually, and post kala azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a stigmatizing skin condition that often occurs in patients after successful treatment for VL. Lack of effective or appropriately targeted cell mediated immunity, including CD8+ T cell responses, underlies the progression of VL and progression to PKDL, and can limit the therapeutic efficacy of anti-leishmanial drugs. Hence, in addition to the need for prophylactic vaccines against leishmaniasis, the development of therapeutic vaccines for use alone or in combined immuno-chemotherapy has been identified as an unmet clinical need. Here, we report the first clinical trial of a third-generation leishmaniasis vaccine, developed intentionally to induce Leishmania-specific CD8+ T cells.MethodsWe conducted a first-in-human dose escalation Phase I trial in 20 healthy volunteers to assess the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of a prime-only adenoviral vaccine for human VL and PKDL. ChAd63-KH is a replication defective simian adenovirus expressing a novel synthetic gene (KH) encoding two Leishmania proteins KMP-11 and HASPB. Uniquely, the latter was engineered to reflect repeat domain polymorphisms and arrangements identified from clinical isolates. We monitored innate immune responses by whole blood RNA-Seq and antigen specific CD8+ T cell responses by IFNγ ELISPOT and intracellular flow cytometry.FindingsChAd63-KH was safe at intramuscular doses of 1x1010 and 7.5x1010 vp. Whole blood transcriptomic profiling indicated that ChAd63-KH induced innate immune responses characterized by an interferon signature and the presence of activated dendritic cells. Broad and quantitatively robust CD8+ T cell responses were induced by vaccination in 100% (20/20) of vaccinated subjects.ConclusionThe results of this study support the further development of ChAd63-KH as a novel third generation vaccine for VL and PKDL.Trial registrationThis clinical trial (LEISH1) was registered at EudraCT (2012-005596-14) and ISRCTN (07766359).

Project description:BackgroundThe skin disorder Post Kala-Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (PKDL) occurs in up to 10% of patients treated for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India. The pathogenesis of PKDL is not yet fully understood. Cases have been reported in India following therapy with most available treatments, but rarely in those treated with liposomal amphotericin B (Ambisome). Between July 2007 and August 2012 with the support of the Rajendra Memorial Research Institute (RMRI), Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) supported a VL treatment programme in Bihar, India-an area highly endemic for Leishmania donovani-in which 8749 patients received 20 mg/kg intravenous Ambisome as first-line treatment. This study describes the characteristics of patients who returned to the MSF supported treatment programme with PKDL.Methods and principal findingsOver a 5-year period, Ambisome was administered to 8749 patients with laboratory-confirmed VL (clinical signs, rK39 positive, with/without parasite confirmation) in four intravenous doses of 5 mg/kg to a total of 20 mg/kg, with a high initial-cure rate (99.3%) and low default rate (0.3%). All patients received health education highlighting the possibility and symptoms of developing PKDL, and advice to return to the MSF programme if these symptoms developed. This is an observational retrospective cohort study of the programme outcomes. Of the 8311 patients completing treatment for their first episode of VL, 24 (0.3%) returned passively to the programme complaining of symptoms subsequently confirmed as PKDL, diagnosed from clinical history, appearance consistent with PKDL, and slit-skin smear examination. Of the 24 patients, 89% had macular lesions, with a median time (interquartile range) to development of 1.2 (0.8-2.2) years following treatment. Comparison of the demographic and clinical characteristics of the VL patients treated with Ambisome who later developed PKDL, with those of the remaining cohort did not identify any significant risk factors for PKDL. However, the time to developing PKDL was significantly shorter with Ambisome than in a subset of patients presenting to the programme with PKDL following previous sodium stibogluconate treatment for VL.ConclusionsIn this large cohort of patients with VL in Bihar who were treated with 20 mg/kg Ambisome, PKDL following treatment appears to be infrequent with no predictive risk factors. The shorter median time to developing symptoms of PKDL compared with that after conventional VL treatments should be taken into account when counseling patients treated with regimens including Ambisome.

Dataset Information

Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.

Publications

Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.

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