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Comparison of censoring assumptions to reduce bias in tuberculosis treatment cohort analyses.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Observational tuberculosis cohort studies are often limited by a lack of long-term data characterizing survival beyond the initial treatment outcome. Though Cox proportional hazards models are often applied to these data, differential risk of long-term survival, dependent on the initial treatment outcome, can lead to violations of model assumptions. We evaluate the performance of two alternate censoring approaches on reducing bias in treatment effect estimates. DESIGN:We simulate a typical multidrug-resistant tuberculosis cohort study and use Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relationship of an aggressive treatment regimen with hazard of death. We compare three assumptions regarding censored observations to determine which produces least biased treatment effect estimates: conventional non-informative censoring, an extension of short-term survival informed by literature, and incorporation of predicted long-term vital status. RESULTS:The treatment regimen's protective effect on death is consistently underestimated by the conventional censoring method, up to 7.6%. Models using the two alternative censoring techniques produce treatment effect estimates consistently stronger and less biased than the conventional method, underestimating the treatment effect by less than 2.4% across all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS:When model assumptions are violated, alternative censoring techniques can more accurately estimate associations between treatment and long-term survival. In multidrug-resistant tuberculosis cohort analyses, this bias reduction may yield more accurate and, larger effect estimates. This bias reduction can be achieved through use of standard statistical procedures with a simple re-coding of the censoring indicator.

SUBMITTER: Brooks MB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7571697 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of censoring assumptions to reduce bias in tuberculosis treatment cohort analyses.

Brooks Meredith B MB Brooks Meredith B MB Mitnick Carole D CD Manjourides Justin J

PloS one 20201019 10

<h4>Objective</h4>Observational tuberculosis cohort studies are often limited by a lack of long-term data characterizing survival beyond the initial treatment outcome. Though Cox proportional hazards models are often applied to these data, differential risk of long-term survival, dependent on the initial treatment outcome, can lead to violations of model assumptions. We evaluate the performance of two alternate censoring approaches on reducing bias in treatment effect estimates.<h4>Design</h4>We ...[more]

PMID: 33075072

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Project description:ImportanceThe lack of standards in methods to reduce bias for clinical algorithms presents various challenges in providing reliable predictions and in addressing health disparities.ObjectiveTo evaluate approaches for reducing bias in machine learning models using a real-world clinical scenario.Design, setting, and participantsHealth data for this cohort study were obtained from the IBM MarketScan Medicaid Database. Eligibility criteria were as follows: (1) Female individuals aged 12 to 55 years with a live birth record identified by delivery-related codes from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2018; (2) greater than 80% enrollment through pregnancy to 60 days post partum; and (3) evidence of coverage for depression screening and mental health services. Statistical analysis was performed in 2020.ExposuresBinarized race (Black individuals and White individuals).Main outcomes and measuresMachine learning models (logistic regression [LR], random forest, and extreme gradient boosting) were trained for 2 binary outcomes: postpartum depression (PPD) and postpartum mental health service utilization. Risk-adjusted generalized linear models were used for each outcome to assess potential disparity in the cohort associated with binarized race (Black or White). Methods for reducing bias, including reweighing, Prejudice Remover, and removing race from the models, were examined by analyzing changes in fairness metrics compared with the base models. Baseline characteristics of female individuals at the top-predicted risk decile were compared for systematic differences. Fairness metrics of disparate impact (DI, 1 indicates fairness) and equal opportunity difference (EOD, 0 indicates fairness).ResultsAmong 573 634 female individuals initially examined for this study, 314 903 were White (54.9%), 217 899 were Black (38.0%), and the mean (SD) age was 26.1 (5.5) years. The risk-adjusted odds ratio comparing White participants with Black participants was 2.06 (95% CI, 2.02-2.10) for clinically recognized PPD and 1.37 (95% CI, 1.33-1.40) for postpartum mental health service utilization. Taking the LR model for PPD prediction as an example, reweighing reduced bias as measured by improved DI and EOD metrics from 0.31 and -0.19 to 0.79 and 0.02, respectively. Removing race from the models had inferior performance for reducing bias compared with the other methods (PPD: DI = 0.61; EOD = -0.05; mental health service utilization: DI = 0.63; EOD = -0.04).Conclusions and relevanceClinical prediction models trained on potentially biased data may produce unfair outcomes on the basis of the chosen metrics. This study's results suggest that the performance varied depending on the model, outcome label, and method for reducing bias. This approach toward evaluating algorithmic bias can be used as an example for the growing number of researchers who wish to examine and address bias in their data and models.

Dataset Information

Comparison of censoring assumptions to reduce bias in tuberculosis treatment cohort analyses.

Publications

Comparison of censoring assumptions to reduce bias in tuberculosis treatment cohort analyses.

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