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Infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units: A model-based estimation from mortality data.

ABSTRACT: This study estimates cumulative infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by local authority districts (LADs) and council areas (CAs) and investigates spatial patterns in infection rates. We propose a model-based approach to calculate cumulative infection rates from data on observed and expected deaths from Covid-19. Our analysis of mortality data shows that 7% of people in Great Britain were infected by Covid-19 by the last third of June 2020. It is unlikely that the infection rate was lower than 4% or higher than 15%. Secondly, England had higher infection rates than Scotland and especially Wales, although the differences between countries were not large. Thirdly, we observed a substantial variation in virus infection rates in Great Britain by geographical units. Estimated infection rates were highest in the capital city of London where between 11 and 12% of the population might have been infected and also in other major urban regions, while the lowest were in small towns and rural areas. Finally, spatial regression analysis showed that the virus infection rates increased with the increasing population density of the area and the level of deprivation. The results suggest that people from lower socioeconomic groups in urban areas (including those with minority backgrounds) were most affected by the spread of coronavirus from March to June.

SUBMITTER: Kulu H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7572059 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units: A model-based estimation from mortality data.

Kulu Hill H Dorey Peter P

Health & place 20201019

This study estimates cumulative infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by local authority districts (LADs) and council areas (CAs) and investigates spatial patterns in infection rates. We propose a model-based approach to calculate cumulative infection rates from data on observed and expected deaths from Covid-19. Our analysis of mortality data shows that 7% of people in Great Britain were infected by Covid-19 by the last third of June 2020. It is unlikely that the infection rate was low ...[more]

PMID: 33418438

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Project description:BackgroundAvian reoviruses (ARVs) cause a range of disease presentations in domestic, captive and free-living bird species. ARVs have been reported as a cause of significant disease and mortality in free-living corvid species in North America and continental Europe. Until this report, there have been no confirmed cases of ARV-associated disease in British wild birds.Case presentationSporadic individual magpie (Pica pica) mortality was detected at a single site in Buckinghamshire, England, April-September 2013. An adult female magpie was found moribund and subsequently died. Post-mortem examination identified hepatomegaly and splenomegaly as the most severe macroscopic abnormalities. Histopathological examination revealed extensive hepatic and splenic necrosis. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) identified virions of a size (circa 78 nm diameter) and morphology consistent with ARV in both the liver and the small intestinal (SI) contents. Nucleic acid extracted from pooled liver and spleen was positive on both a pan-reovirus nested PCR targeting the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and a PCR using primers specific to the ARV sigma C protein gene. Virus isolated from the liver and the SI contents was characterised by a syncytial-type cytopathic effect, a reovirus-like appearance on TEM and sequence identical to that from PCR of tissues. In situ hybridisation confirmed co-localisation of ARV with lesions in the liver and spleen, implicating ARV as the causative agent. Splenic lymphoid atrophy and necrotic stomatitis associated with Aspergillus fumigatus infection were consistent with generalised immunosuppression and resultant opportunistic infection.ConclusionsThe pathology and comprehensive virus investigations in this case indicate ARV as the primary pathogen in this magpie, with concurrent secondary infection subsequent to immunosuppression, as has been observed with reoviral infections in other bird species. ARV should be considered as a differential diagnosis for magpie, and potentially other corvid, disease and mortality incidents. This is the first demonstration of ARV-associated mortality in a wild bird in Britain. The prevalence and significance of ARV infection in British wild birds, and its implications for poultry and captive bird health, are currently unknown.

Dataset Information

Infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units: A model-based estimation from mortality data.

Publications

Infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units: A model-based estimation from mortality data.

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