Dataset Information

Alternative type 2 diabetes screening tests may reduce the number of U.S. adults with undiagnosed diabetes.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

To evaluate the U.S. population-level impact of two alternatives for initial type 2 diabetes screening [opportunistic random plasma glucose (RPG) > 6.7 mmol/l and a 1-h 50-g glucose challenge test (GCT) > 8.9 mmol/l] compared with American Diabetes Association (ADA)-recommended tests.

Methods

Using a sample (n = 1471) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013-2014 that represented 145 million U.S. adults at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes, we simulated a two-test screening process. We compared ADA-recommended screening tests [fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), HbA_1c ] vs. initial screening with opportunistic RPG or GCT (followed by FPG, OGTT or HbA_1c ). After simulation, participants were entered into an individual-level Monte Carlo-based Markov lifetime outcomes model. Primary outcomes were representative number of U.S. adults correctly identified with type 2 diabetes, societal lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

Results

In NHANES 2013-2014, 100 individuals had undiagnosed diabetes [weighted estimate: 8.4 million, standard error (se): 1.1 million]. Among ADA-recommended screening tests, FPG followed by OGTT (FPG-OGTT) was most sensitive, identifying 35 individuals with undiagnosed diabetes (weighted estimate: 3.2 million, se: 0.9 million). Four alternative screening strategies performed superior to FPG-OGTT, with RPG followed by OGTT being the most sensitive overall, identifying 72 individuals with undiagnosed diabetes (weighted estimate: 6.1 million, se: 1.0 million). There was no increase in average lifetime costs and comparable QALYs.

Conclusions

Initial screening using opportunistic RPG or a GCT may identify more U.S. adults with type 2 diabetes without increasing societal costs.

SUBMITTER: Dadwani RS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7572743 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background:A common belief is that one quarter to one third of all diabetes cases remain undiagnosed. However, such prevalence estimates may be overstated by epidemiologic studies that do not use confirmatory testing, as recommended by clinical diagnostic criteria. Objective:To provide national estimates of undiagnosed diabetes by using a confirmatory testing strategy, in line with clinical practice guidelines. Design:Cross-sectional study. Setting:National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey results from 1988 to 1994 and 1999 to 2014. Participants:U.S. adults aged 20 years and older. Measurements:Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes was defined as elevated levels of fasting glucose (?7.0 mmol/L [?126 mg/dL]) and hemoglobin A1c (?6.5%) in persons without diagnosed diabetes. Results:The prevalence of total (diagnosed plus confirmed undiagnosed) diabetes increased from 5.5% (9.7 million adults) in 1988 to 1994 to 10.8% (25.5 million adults) in 2011 to 2014. Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes increased during the past 2 decades (from 0.89% in 1988 to 1994 to 1.2% in 2011 to 2014) but has decreased over time as a proportion of total diabetes cases. In 1988 to 1994, the percentage of total diabetes cases that were undiagnosed was 16.3%; by 2011 to 2014, this estimate had decreased to 10.9%. Undiagnosed diabetes was more common in overweight or obese adults, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities (including Asian Americans), and persons lacking health insurance or access to health care. Limitation:Cross-sectional design. Conclusion:Establishing the burden of undiagnosed diabetes is critical to monitoring public health efforts related to screening and diagnosis. When a confirmatory definition is used, undiagnosed diabetes is a relatively small fraction of the total diabetes population; most U.S. adults with diabetes (about 90%) have received a diagnosis of the condition. Primary Funding Source:National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Project description:BackgroundThe prevalence of type 2 diabetes within the Republic of Ireland is poorly defined, although a recent report suggested 135,000 cases in adults aged 45+, with approximately one-third of these undiagnosed. This study aims to assess the prevalence of undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes in middle-aged adults, and compare features related to either condition, in order to investigate why certain individuals remain undetected.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study involving a sample of 2,047 men and women, aged between 50-69 years, randomly selected from a large primary care centre. Univariate logistic regression was used to explore socio-economic, metabolic and other health related variable associations with undiagnosed or diagnosed diabetes. A final multivariate analysis was used to determine odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for having undiagnosed compared to diagnosed diabetes, adjusted for gender, age and significant covariates determined from univariate models.Principle findingsThe total prevalence of diabetes was 8.5% (95% CI: 7.4%-8.8%); 72 subjects (3.5%) had undiagnosed diabetes (95% CI: 2.8%-4.4%) and 102 subjects (5.0%) had diagnosed diabetes (95% CI: 4.1%-6.0%). Obesity, dyslipidaemia, and family history of diabetes were positively associated with both undiagnosed and diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Compared with diagnosed subjects, study participants with undiagnosed diabetes were significantly more likely to have low levels of physical activity and were less likely to be on treatment for diabetes-related conditions or to have private medical insurance.ConclusionsThe prevalence of diabetes within the Cork and Kerry Diabetes and Heart Disease Study is comparable to recent estimates from the Slán National Health and Lifestyle Survey, a study which was nationally representative of the general population. A considerable proportion of diabetes cases were undiagnosed (41%), emphasising the need for more effective detection strategies and equitable access to primary healthcare.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:With the rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Australia, screening and earlier diagnosis is needed to provide opportunities to intervene with evidence-based lifestyle and treatment options to reduce the individual, social and economic impact of the disease. The objectives of the Pharmacy Diabetes Screening Trial are to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three screening models for type 2 diabetes in a previously undiagnosed population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:The Pharmacy Diabetes Screening Trial is a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial to be conducted in 363 community pharmacies across metropolitan, regional and remote areas of Australia, randomly allocated by geographical clusters to one of three groups, each with 121 pharmacies and 10 304 screening participants. The three groups are: group A: risk assessment using a validated tool (AUSDRISK); group B: AUSDRISK assessment followed by point-of-care glycated haemoglobin testing; and group C: AUSDRISK assessment followed by point-of-care blood glucose testing. The primary clinical outcome measure is the proportion of newly diagnosed cases of type 2 diabetes. Primary outcome comparisons will be conducted using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test to account for clustering. The secondary clinical outcomes measures are the proportion of those who (1) are referred to the general practitioner (GP), (2) take up referral to the GP, (3) are diagnosed with pre-diabetes, that is, impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glucose and (4) are newly diagnosed with either diabetes or pre-diabetes. The economic outcome measure is the average cost (direct and indirect) per confirmed new case of diagnosed type 2 diabetes based on the incremental net trial-based costs of service delivery and the associated incremental longer term health benefits from a health funder perspective. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:The protocol has been approved by the Human Research Ethics Committees at University of Sydney and Deakin University. Results will be available on the Sixth Community Pharmacy Agreement website and will be published in peer reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER:ACTRN12616001240437; Pre-results.

Project description:ContextEarly diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is crucial to reduce severe comorbidities and complications. Current screening recommendations for type 2 diabetes include traditional risk factors, primarily body mass index (BMI) and family history, however genetics also plays a key role in type 2 diabetes risk. It is important to understand whether genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes modifies the effect of these traditional factors on type 2 diabetes risk.ObjectiveThis work aimed to investigate whether genetic risk of type 2 diabetes modifies associations between BMI and first-degree family history of diabetes with 1) prevalent prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes; and 2) incident confirmed type 2 diabetes.MethodsWe included 431 658 individuals aged 40 to 69 years at baseline of multiethnic ancestry from the UK Biobank. We used a multiethnic polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes (PRST2D) developed by Genomics PLC. Prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes was defined as baseline glycated hemoglobin greater than or equal to 42 mmol/mol (6.0%), and incident type 2 diabetes was derived from medical records.ResultsAt baseline, 43 472 participants had prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes, and 17 259 developed type 2 diabetes over 15 years follow-up. Dose-response associations were observed for PRST2D with each outcome in each category of BMI or first-degree family history of diabetes. Those in the highest quintile of PRST2D with a normal BMI were at a similar risk as those in the middle quintile who were overweight. Participants who were in the highest quintile of PRST2D and did not have a first-degree family history of diabetes were at a similar risk as those with a family history who were in the middle category of PRST2D.ConclusionGenetic risk of type 2 diabetes remains strongly associated with risk of prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and future type 2 diabetes within categories of nongenetic risk factors. This could have important implications for identifying individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes for prevention and early diagnosis programs.

Project description:ObjectivesUsing a nationally-representative, cross-sectional cohort, we examined nutritional markers of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in adults via machine learning.MethodsA total of 16429 men and non-pregnant women ≥ 20 years of age were analysed from five consecutive cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Cohorts from years 2013-2016 (n = 6673) was used for external validation. Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes was determined by a negative response to the question "Have you ever been told by a doctor that you have diabetes?" and a positive glycaemic response to one or more of the three diagnostic tests (HbA1c > 6.4% or FPG >125 mg/dl or 2-hr post-OGTT glucose > 200mg/dl). Following comprehensive literature search, 114 potential nutritional markers were modelled with 13 behavioural and 12 socio-economic variables. We tested three machine learning algorithms on original and resampled training datasets built using three resampling methods. From this, the derived 12 predictive models were validated on internal- and external validation cohorts. Magnitudes of associations were gauged through odds ratios in logistic models and variable importance in others. Models were benchmarked against the ADA diabetes risk test.ResultsThe prevalence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes was 5.26%. Four best-performing models (AUROC range: 74.9%-75.7%) classified 39 markers of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes; 28 via one or more of the three best-performing non-linear/ensemble models and 11 uniquely by the logistic model. They comprised 14 nutrient-based, 12 anthropometry-based, 9 socio-behavioural, and 4 diet-associated markers. AUROC of all models were on a par with ADA diabetes risk test on both internal and external validation cohorts (p>0.05).ConclusionsModels performed comparably to the chosen benchmark. Novel behavioural markers such as the number of meals not prepared from home were revealed. This approach may be useful in nutritional epidemiology to unravel new associations with type 2 diabetes.