Dataset Information

Risk scoring for time to end-stage knee osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study constructs a risk score for patients' progression to end-stage knee osteoarthritis (OA) within 4 years.

Design

The Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) was a longitudinal study of the onset and progression of knee OA. Using a recent definition of end-stage knee OA, we implement interval-censored survival forests to select predictors of this endpoint. We fit an interval-censored Cox model for time to end-stage knee OA, using the selected predictors. The risk score is the Cox model's fitted linear combination of the nine selected baseline structural and symptomatic knee OA variables.

Results

We fit our models on a training set of 2,701 patients, and we evaluate on an independent test set of 1,436 patients. On the test sample, we observe a concordance index of 0.86 between risk score and time to end-stage, AUC of 0.87 for predicting end-stage within 24, 36, and 48 months, and positive predictive values that increase with the risk score. This risk stratification algorithm could enrich clinical trial patient enrollment. By enrolling test sample patients with scores above a threshold, a trial could have included 91% of test set patients who reach end-stage within 4 years while only enrolling 45% of the test sample.

Conclusion

Using statistical methods, we construct and validate an interpretable risk score for time to end-stage knee OA. This score can help disease-modifying OA treatment developers to select candidates with the highest risk of fast-progressing knee OA.

SUBMITTER: Dunn R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7575033 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to describe the natural history leading to end-stage knee osteoarthritis (esKOA), focusing on knee symptoms, radiographic severity, and the presence of limited mobility or instability.MethodsWe performed knee-based analyses of Osteoarthritis Initiative data from 7691 knees (4165 participants). We used a validated definition of esKOA that relied on meeting one of two criteria: (1) severe radiographic knee osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] grade=4) with moderate-to-intense pain (Likert WOMAC pain+function>11/88) or (2) KL grade<4 with intense or severe pain (WOMAC pain+function>22) and limited mobility (flexion contracture≥5°) or instability (based on a varus and valgus stress test). We also introduced an alternate definition of esKOA that relied on meeting one of two criteria that omitted physical exam findings:(1) severe radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KL grade=4) with at least moderate symptoms or (2) KL grade=2 or 3 with intense or severe symptoms and persistent knee pain (frequent knee pain during three or more months in the past year). We used descriptive statistics to explore the frequency of components of esKOA at the index visit when they had incident esKOA, at the annual visit before developing esKOA, and the interval change between those visits.ResultsOur analytic sample was mostly female (58%), without radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KL grade=0 or 1; 60%), without stability or mobility concerns (91%), and without persistent knee pain (77%). At the visit before incident esKOA, most knees already had moderate-to-severe radiographic osteoarthritis using the original (62%) or alternate (50%) definition (versus <15% for either definition of no esKOA). Over 80% of knees that reached the criteria for esKOA achieved this based on increased knee symptom severity - typically without worsening radiographic severity (80%).ConclusionRadiographic severity predisposed a knee to esKOA. However, worsening knee symptoms led to the development of incident esKOA. If investigators want to increase the chance of identifying incident esKOA as an outcome, they should enrich their study samples with people with moderate-to-severe radiographic osteoarthritis. Our findings also highlight the potential reversibility of esKOA (a knee that is classified with esKOA but later is not classified with esKOA). Reversibility is not a flaw of an outcome defining esKOA but rather a desirable clinical outcome to demonstrate a therapeutic intervention can help people with esKOA improve their knee symptoms and delay a knee replacement.

Project description:ObjectiveSubjective crepitus is the reporting of hearing grating, cracking, or popping sounds in and/or around a joint. We aimed to evaluate whether there is an association between crepitus and incident symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a multicenter longitudinal US cohort.MethodsKnees without baseline symptomatic OA were included. Crepitus frequency was assessed using a question from the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score at baseline and at 12, 24, and 36 months. Frequent knee pain and radiographs were assessed at baseline and at annual visits up to 48 months. Radiographic OA was defined as a tibiofemoral Kellgren/Lawrence grade ?2. Symptomatic OA was defined as a knee with both frequent symptoms and radiographic OA. We performed a repeated-measures analysis with a predictor of crepitus and outcome of incident symptomatic OA, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), with those never reporting crepitus as the referent group.ResultsThere were a total of 3,495 participants (42.2% male), with mean ± SD age of 61.1 ± 9.2 years and a mean ± SD BMI of 28.2 ± 4.7 kg/m². The odds of incident symptomatic OA were higher with greater frequency of crepitus (never, rarely, sometimes, often, and always, with adjusted odds ratios of (referent), 1.5, 1.8, 2.2, and 3.0, respectively; P < 0.0001 for trend). The group with radiographic OA at OAI baseline but without symptoms contributed 26% of the observations but more than 75% of the incident symptomatic OA cases.ConclusionIn those without symptomatic OA, subjective knee crepitus predicts incident symptomatic OA longitudinally, with most cases occurring in those with preexisting tibiofemoral radiographic OA but without frequent knee pain. However, an important limitation is that patellofemoral OA was not systematically evaluated within the OAI. Subjective crepitus offers utility for the identification of at-risk individuals, predictive modeling, and future research.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease with a substantial public health burden. Quantitative assessments of periarticular bone may be a biomarker capable of monitoring early disease progression. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether measures of periarticular bone associate with longitudinal structural progression. METHODS:We conducted a 12-18 months longitudinal study using the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Participants received knee dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), trabecular magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, and x-rays. Knee DXAs generated proximal tibial medial:lateral periarticular bone mineral density (paBMD) measures. Proximal tibial trabecular MR images were assessed for trabecular morphometry: apparent bone volume fraction (BVF), trabecular number, thickness, and spacing. Weight-bearing x-rays were assessed for medial tibiofemoral joint space narrowing (JSN). Chi-squared analyses assessed whether periarticular bone measures were predictive of worsening medial tibiofemoral JSN, adjusted for age, sex, and BMI. RESULTS:In all, 444 participants, mean age 64.2 ± 9.2 years, BMI 29.5 ± 4.6kg/m2, and 52% male at baseline. Medial JSN (radiographic progression) occurred in 40 participants (9%). Higher baseline medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, trabecular number and thickness, and lower baseline and decreased trabecular spacing were all associated with more progression of JSN in the medial compartment. From lowest to highest baseline medial:lateral paBMD quartile groups, 2%, 5%, 11%, and 18% had medial JSN progression, respectively, between the 36- and 48-month visits, p-values = 0.001 and 0.002 unadjusted and adjusted. The rate of change in medial:lateral paBMD, apparent BVF, and spacing were associated with more medial JSN. For rate of medial:lateral paBMD change from lowest to highest quartile, the proportion of each group that experienced medial JSN progression were 5%, 5%, 11%, and 18%, with an unadjusted and adjusted p-value of 0.005. CONCLUSION:Baseline and most rates of periarticular bone change associate with knee OA structural progression, highlighting the close relationship between subchondral bone and JSN. Future studies should focus on developing these measures as predictive and pathophysiological biomarkers, and evaluating their deployment in clinical trials testing bone-targeted therapeutics.

Project description:Background Longitudinal data on the association of quantitative thigh muscle MRI markers with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) outcomes are scarce. These associations are of clinical importance, with potential use for thigh muscle-directed disease-modifying interventions. Purpose To measure KOA-associated longitudinal changes in MRI-derived muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) and adipose tissue and their association with downstream symptom worsening and knee replacement (KR). Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of the Osteoarthritis Initiative multicenter prospective cohort (February 2004 through October 2015), knees of participants with available good-quality thigh MRI scans at baseline and at least one follow-up visit were included and classified as with and without KOA according to baseline radiographic Kellgren-Lawrence grade of 2 or higher and matched for confounders with use of propensity score matching. An automated deep learning model for thigh MRI two-dimensional segmentation was developed and tested. Markers of muscle CSA and intramuscular adipose tissue (intra-MAT) were measured at baseline and 2nd- and 4th-year follow-up (period 1) and compared between knees with and without KOA by using linear mixed-effect regression models. Furthermore, in knees with KOA, the association of period 1 changes in muscle markers with risk of KR (Cox proportional hazards) and symptom worsening (mixed-effect models) during the 4th to 9th year (period 2) was evaluated. Results This study included 4634 matched thighs (2317 with and 2317 without KOA) of 2344 participants (mean age, 62 years ± 9 [SD]; 1292 women). Compared with those without, knees with KOA had a decrease in quadriceps CSA (mean difference, -8.21 mm2/year; P = .004) and an increase in quadriceps intra-MAT (1.98 mm2/year; P = .007). Decreased CSA and increased intra-MAT of quadriceps during period 1 was predictive of downstream (period 2) KOA symptom worsening (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index total score: odds ratio, 0.24 [negative association] [P < .001] and 1.38 [P = .012], respectively). Quadriceps CSA changes were negatively associated with higher future KR risk (hazard ratio, 0.70; P < .001). Conclusion Knee osteoarthritis was associated with longitudinal MRI-derived decreased quadriceps cross-sectional area and increased intramuscular adipose tissue. These potentially modifiable risk factors were predictive of downstream symptom worsening and knee replacement. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00080171 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Project description:IntroductionThe aim of this analysis was to describe comprehensively the cross-sectional and longitudinal patterns of analgesic and nutraceutical medication use for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in a contemporary US cohort and to investigate associated demographic and clinical factors.MethodsBaseline, 12, 24 and 36 month data were obtained retrospectively from the National Institutes of Health Osteoarthritis Initiative. Participants had symptomatic radiographic knee OA. Multiple binary logistic regression models identified characteristics independently associated with the use of analgesics or nutraceuticals.ResultsWe included 987 subjects (55.9% female, mean age 61.5 years, 71.0% white). At baseline, 68.2% reported frequent use of a conventional analgesic or nutraceutical for joint pain (for more than half of the previous month). Non-prescription non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were the most frequently reported medications (26.8%), even in those more than 75-years old. Multiple conventional analgesics were used by 11.9%. Frequent analgesic use was more likely in women (odds ratio (OR) 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3 to 2.3)) and people with more pain (moderate 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4); severe 3.1 (2.1 to 4.7)); nutraceutical use was less likely in non-whites (0.4 (0.3 to 0.6)), those more than 74-years old (0.6 (0.3 to 0.9)) and those with comorbidities (0.6 (0.5 to 0.9)) and more likely in people with Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 4 (2.2 (1.5 to 3.3)). Overall there was no change in the proportion of participants frequently using prescription or over the counter (OTC) analgesics at 36 months, although most people had changed medication type; of those using a traditional analgesic at baseline approximately one third were still using the same type at 36 months (ranging from 26.2% of baseline prescription NSAID users to 40.6% of baseline acetaminophen users). All participants reporting baseline analgesic use also reported 36 month analgesic use. Female participants (OR 95% CI 1.2 to 3.2, P = 0.009), those with high body mass index (1.2 to 4.8, P = 0.010) and those with moderate (1.6 to 2.6, P = 0.090) or severe (1.8 to 12.0, P = 0.002) baseline pain were more likely to use pain medication during the 36 month follow-up period; participants more than 75-years old were less likely (0.2 to 1.0, P = 0.053).ConclusionsMost people with knee OA used pharmacological therapies frequently, and use appeared to be according to American College of Rheumatology recommendations. Change in medication type used was common. Persistent non-prescription NSAID use in older people is an area of concern.