Dataset Information

Establishment of prognostic nomogram for elderly colorectal cancer patients: a SEER database analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:This study aimed to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly colorectal cancer (ECRC) patients (Age???70). METHODS:The clinical variables of patients confirmed as ECRC between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed, followed by the construction of nomograms in OS and CSS. RESULTS:A total of 44,761 cases were finally included in this study. Both C-index and calibration plots indicated noticeable performance of newly established nomograms. Moreover, nomograms also showed higher outcomes of decision curve analysis (DCA) and the area under the curve (AUC) compared to American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage and SEER stage. CONCLUSIONS:This study established nomograms of elderly colorectal cancer patients with distinct clinical values compared to AJCC TNM and SEER stages regarding both OS and CSS.

SUBMITTER: Yu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7576842 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Establishment of prognostic nomogram for elderly colorectal cancer patients: a SEER database analysis.

Yu Chaoran C Zhang Yujie Y

BMC gastroenterology 20201020 1

<h4>Background</h4>This study aimed to establish nomogram models of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly colorectal cancer (ECRC) patients (Age ≥ 70).<h4>Methods</h4>The clinical variables of patients confirmed as ECRC between 2004 and 2016 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed, followed by the construction of nomograms in OS and CSS.<h4>Results</h4>A total of 44,761 ...[more]

PMID: 33081695

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Project description:BackgroundSynchronous multiple primary colorectal cancer (SMPCC) involves the simultaneous occurrence of 2 or more independent primary malignant tumors in the colon or rectum. Although SMPCC is rare, it results in a higher incidence of postoperative complications and mortality compared to patients with single primary colorectal cancer (SPCRC).MethodsThe clinical factors and survival outcomes of SMPCC patients registered on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2017 were extracted. The patients were divided into the training and validation cohorts using a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors for early death. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). A decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomogram and standard TNM system.ResultsA total of 4386 SMPCC patients were enrolled in the study and randomly assigned to the training (n = 3070) and validation (n = 1316) cohorts. The multivariate logistic analysis identified age, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, T stage, N stage, and M stage as independent risk factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early death. The marital status was associated with all-cause early death, and the tumor grade was associated with cancer-specific early death. In the training cohort, the nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.808 (95% CI, 0.784-0.832) and 0.843 (95% CI, 0.816-0.870) for all-cause and cancer-specific early death, respectively. Following validation, the C-index was 0.797 (95% CI, 0.758-0.837) for all-cause early death and 0.832 (95% CI, 0.789-0.875) for cancer-specific early death. The ROC and calibration curves indicated that the model had good stability and reliability. The DCA showed that the nomogram had a better clinical net value than the TNM staging system.ConclusionOur nomogram can provide a simple and accurate tool for clinicians to predict the risk of early death in SMPCC patients undergoing surgery and could be used to optimize the treatment according to the patient's needs.

Dataset Information

Establishment of prognostic nomogram for elderly colorectal cancer patients: a SEER database analysis.

Publications

Establishment of prognostic nomogram for elderly colorectal cancer patients: a SEER database analysis.

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