[CURB-65 as a predictor of 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ecuador: COVID-EC study].
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ABSTRACT: Objective
This article aims to assess the utility of CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19.Methods
This work is a cohort study conducted between March 1 and April 30, 2020 in Ecuador.Results
A total of 247 patients were included (mean age 60 ± 14 years, 70% men, overall mortality 41.3%). Patients with CURB-65 ≥ 2 had a higher mortality rate (57 vs. 17%, p < .001) that was associated with other markers of risk: advanced age, hypertension, overweight/obesity, kidney failure, hypoxemia, requirement for mechanical ventilation, or onset of respiratory distress.Conclusions
CURB-65 ≥ 2 was associated with higher 30-day mortality on the univariate (Kaplan-Meier estimator) and multivariate (Cox regression) analysis.
SUBMITTER: Carriel J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7580560 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveThis article aims to assess the utility of CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsThis work is a cohort study conducted between March 1 and April 30, 2020 in Ecuador.ResultsA total of 247 patients were included (mean age 60 ± 14 years, 70% men, overall mortality 41.3%). Patients with CURB-65 ≥ 2 had a higher mortality rate (57 vs. 17%, p < .001) that was associated with other markers of risk: advanced age, hypertension, overweight/obesity, kidney failure, hypoxemia, requirement for mechanical ventilation, or onset of respiratory distress.ConclusionsCURB-65 ≥ 2 was associated with higher 30-day mortality on the univariate (Kaplan-Meier estimator) and multivariate (Cox regression) analysis.
| S-EPMC8086802 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo validate and recalibrate the CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) in predicting 30-day mortality and critical care intervention (CCI) in a multiethnic population with COVID-19, along with evaluating both models in predicting CCI.MethodsRetrospective data was collected for 1181 patients admitted to the largest hospital in Qatar with COVID-19 pneumonia. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and other metrics were bootstrapped to examine the performance of the models. Variables constituting the CURB-65 and PSI scores underwent further analysis using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) along with logistic regression to develop a model predicting CCI. Complex machine learning models were built for comparative analysis.ResultsThe PSI performed better than CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 0.78 respectively), while CURB-65 outperformed PSI in predicting CCI (AUC 0.78, 0.70 respectively). The modified PSI/CURB-65 model (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, hematocrit, age, sodium, and glucose) predicting CCI had excellent accuracy (AUC 0.823) and good calibration.ConclusionsOur study recalibrated, externally validated the PSI and CURB-65 for predicting 30-day mortality and CCI, and developed a model for predicting CCI. Our tool can potentially guide clinicians in Qatar to stratify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
| S-EPMC8372428 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionPatients with pre-existing respiratory diseases in the setting of COVID-19 may have a greater risk of severe complications and even death.MethodsA retrospective, multicenter, cohort study with 5847 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. Patients were separated in two groups, with/without previous lung disease. Evaluation of factors associated with survival and secondary composite end-point such as ICU admission and respiratory support, were explored.Results1,271 patients (22%) had a previous lung disease, mostly COPD. All-cause mortality occurred in 376 patients with lung disease (29.5%) and in 819 patients without (17.9%) (p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with lung diseases had a worse 30-day survival (HR = 1.78; 95%C.I. 1.58-2.01; p < 0.001) and COPD had almost 40% mortality. Multivariable Cox regression showed that prior lung disease remained a risk factor for mortality (HR, 1.21; 95%C.I. 1.02-1.44; p = 0.02). Variables independently associated with all-cause mortality risk in patients with lung diseases were oxygen saturation less than 92% on admission (HR, 4.35; 95% CI 3.08-6.15) and elevated D-dimer (HR, 1.84; 95% CI 1.27-2.67). Age younger than 60 years (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.21-0.65) was associated with decreased risk of death.ConclusionsPrevious lung disease is a risk factor for mortality in patients with COVID-19. Older age, male gender, home oxygen therapy, and respiratory failure on admission were associated with an increased mortality. Efforts must be done to identify respiratory patients to set measures to improve their clinical outcomes.
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Project description:BackgroundThe Risk Stratification Index (RSI) is superior to Hierarchical Conditions Categories (HCC) in patient-level regressions but has not been applied to assess hospital effects.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to measure the accuracy of RSI in modeling 30-day hospital mortality across all conditions using multilevel logistic regression.Subjects and data sourcesA 100% sample of Medicare inpatient stays from 2009 to 2014, restricted to patients greater than 65 years of age in general hospitals, resulting in 64 million stays at 3504 hospitals.Research designWe calculated RSI and HCC scores for patient stays using multilevel logistic regression in 3 populations: all inpatients, surgical, and nonsurgical. Correlations of risk-standardized mortality rates with rates of specific case types assessed case-mix balance. Patient stay volume was included to assess smaller hospitals.ResultsWe found a negligible correlation of all-conditions risk-standardized mortality rates with hospitals' proportions of orthopedic, cardiac, or pneumonia cases. RSI outperformed HCC in multilevel regressions containing both patient and hospital-level effects. C-statistics using RSI were 0.87 for the all-inpatients group, 0.87 for surgical, and 0.86 for nonsurgical stays. With HCC they were 0.82, 0.82, and 0.81. Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were higher with HCC. RSI shifted 41% of hospitals' rankings by >1 decile. Hospitals with smaller volumes had higher 30-day observed and standardized mortality: 11.2% in the lowest volume quintile versus 8.5% in the highest volume quintile.ConclusionRSI has superior accuracy and results in a significant shift in rankings compared with HCC in multilevel models of 30-day hospital mortality across all conditions.
| S-EPMC8360662 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Blood conservation strategies have been shown to be effective in decreasing red blood cell (RBC) utilization in specific patient groups. However, few data exist describing the extent of RBC transfusion reduction or their impact on transfusion practice and mortality in a diverse inpatient population.We conducted a retrospective cohort study using comprehensive electronic medical record data from 21 medical facilities in Kaiser Permanente Northern California. We examined unadjusted and risk-adjusted RBC transfusion and 30-day mortality coincident with implementation of RBC conservation strategies.The inpatient study cohort included 391,958 patients who experienced 685,753 hospitalizations. From 2009 to 2013, the incidence of RBC transfusion decreased from 14.0% to 10.8% of hospitalizations; this change coincided with a decline in pretransfusion hemoglobin (Hb) levels from 8.1 to 7.6?g/dL. Decreased RBC utilization affected broad groups of admission diagnoses and was most pronounced in patients with a nadir Hb level between 8 and 9?g/dL (n?=?73,057; 50.8% to 19.3%). During the study period, the standard deviation of risk-adjusted RBC transfusion incidence across hospitals decreased by 44% (p?<?0.001). Thirty-day mortality did not change significantly with declines in RBC utilization in patient groups previously studied in clinical trials nor in other subgroups.After the implementation of blood conservation strategies, RBC transfusion incidence and pretransfusion Hb levels decreased broadly across medical and surgical patients. Variation in RBC transfusion incidence across hospitals decreased from 2010 to 2013. Consistent with clinical trial data, more restrictive transfusion practice did not appear to impact 30-day mortality.
| S-EPMC4197097 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a simple index that includes age, liver enzymes, and platelet count has been studied as a tool to identify patients at a risk of requiring mechanical ventilation due to its high negative predictive value. It is unknown if FIB-4 remains useful to predict the severity of respiratory disease requiring mechanical ventilation amongst new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants and whether a relationship also exists between FIB-4 and 30-day mortality. The main objective was to determine if FIB-4 can predict mechanical ventilation requirements and 30-day mortality from COVID-19 across variants including Alpha, Delta, and Omicron.MethodsThis was a population-based, retrospective cohort analysis of 232,364 hospitalized patients in the National COVID-19 Cohort Collaborative between the age of 18-90 who tested positive for COVID-19 between April 27, 2020 and June 25, 2022. The primary outcome was association between FIB-4 and need for mechanical ventilation. Secondary measures included the association of FIB-4 with 30-day mortality.ResultsA FIB-4 > 2.67 had 1.8 times higher odds of requiring mechanical ventilation across all variants of COVID-19 (OR 1.81; 95% CI: [1.76, 1.86]). The area under the ROC curve showed high diagnostic accuracy with values ranging between 0.79 (Omicron wave) and 0.97 (delta wave). Increased FIB-4 was associated with 30-day mortality across the variates.ConclusionThe FIB-4 was consistently associated with both increased utilization of mechanical ventilation and 30-day mortality among COVID-19 patients across all waves in both adjusted and unadjusted models. This provides a simple tool for risk-stratification for front-line health care professionals.
| S-EPMC10643913 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Confusion, Urea > 7 mM, Respiratory Rate ≥ 30 breaths/min, BP < 90 mm Hg (Systolic) or < 60 mm Hg (Diastolic), Age ≥ 65 Years (CURB-65) score and the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) are well-established clinical prediction rules for predicting mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). SARS-CoV-2 has emerged as a new etiologic agent for CAP, but the role of CURB-65 score and PSI have not been established.Research questionHow effective are CURB-65 score and PSI at predicting in-hospital mortality resulting from SARS-CoV-2 CAP compared with non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP? Can these clinical prediction rules be optimized to predict mortality in SARS-CoV-2 CAP by addition of procalcitonin and D-dimer?Study design and methodsSecondary analysis of two prospective cohorts of patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP or non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP from eight adult hospitals in Louisville, Kentucky.ResultsThe in-hospital mortality rate was 19% for patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP and 6.5% for patients with non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP. For the PSI score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis resulted in an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.77-0.80) for patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP and non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP, respectively. For the CURB-65 score, ROC analysis resulted in an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.84) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) for patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP and non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP, respectively. In SARS-CoV-2 CAP, the addition of D-dimer (optimal cutoff, 1,813 μg/mL) and procalcitonin (optimal cutoff, 0.19 ng/mL) to PSI and CURB-65 score provided negligible improvement in prognostic performance.InterpretationPSI and CURB-65 score can predict in-hospital mortality for patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP and non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP comparatively. In patients with SARS-CoV-2 CAP, the inclusion of either D-dimer or procalcitonin to PSI or CURB-65 score did not improve the prognostic performance of either score. In patients with CAP, regardless of cause, PSI and CURB-65 score remain adequate for predicting mortality in clinical practice.
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Project description:ImportanceInpatients treated by hospitalist physicians, who often work contiguous days, experience handoffs at the end of a scheduled shift block. Evidence suggests that transitions of patient care, or handoffs, among physician trainees are associated with adverse patient outcomes. However, little is known about the association between handoffs and patient outcomes among attending physicians, even though similar concerns apply.ObjectiveTo examine the association between inpatient handoffs of hospitalist physicians and patient mortality among hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study analyzed a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries who were hospitalized with a general medical condition between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016, and treated by a hospitalist. The study compared outcomes of patients with low vs high probability of physician handoff based on date of patient admission relative to the admitting hospitalist's last working day in a scheduled block, hypothesizing that otherwise similar patients admitted toward the end of a physician's shift block would be more likely to be handed off to another physician compared with patients admitted earlier in the shift block. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2018, to January 12, 2021.ExposureHigh vs low probability of physician handoff.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was patient 30-day mortality rate.ResultsA total of 1 074 000 patients (mean [SD] age, 75.9 [13.7] years; 57.4% female; 82.1% White) were studied. Multivariable regression models adjusted for beneficiary clinical and demographic characteristics and hospital fixed effects (a within-hospital analysis, effectively comparing patients treated at the same hospital). Among 597 288 hospitalizations, no overall difference in 30-day mortality was observed between patients admitted in the 2 days prior (days -1 and -2) to the treating hospitalist's last working day (a high handoff probability) compared with days -6 and -7 (a low handoff probability) (adjusted rate, 10.6%; 95% CI, 10.5%-10.7% vs 10.6%; 95% CI, 10.5%-10.7%; adjusted difference, 0.0%; 95% CI, -0.2% to 0.1%). However, in an exploratory analysis, among patients with high illness severity, defined as those in the top quartile of estimated mortality, 30-day mortality was higher for those with high vs low likelihood of physician handoff (adjusted mortality, 27.8%; 95% CI, 27.6%-27.9% vs 26.8%; 95% CI, 26.6%-27.1%; absolute adjusted difference, 1.0%; 95% CI, 0.5%-1.4%).Conclusions and relevanceIn this national analysis of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with a general medical condition and treated by a hospitalist physician, physician handoff was not associated with increased mortality overall.
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Project description:Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50?mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.
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Project description: Not available
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