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Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collected from 31st December 2020 to 3rd April 2020 for 67 countries. Temperature data were split into quartiles for all three categories (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and mean temperature). The impact of three types of temperature data and policy of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 infection was determined by applying the multivariable two-level negative binomial regression analysis keeping daily new cases and daily mortality as outcome. The highest number of cases fell in the temperature categories as following: mean temperature in the second quartile (6°C to 10.5°C), median 26, interquartile range (IQR) 237; minimum temperature in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C), median 23, IQR 173; maximum temperature in the second quartile (10°C to 16°C), median 27.5, IQR 219. For the minimum temperature category, 28% statistically significant lower incidence was noted for new cases from the countries falling in the second quartile (2°C to 6°C) compared with countries falling in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.93). However, no statistically significant difference in incidence rate was observed for mean temperature categories in comparison to the first quartile. Countries with BCG vaccination policy had 58% less mortality as compared with countries without BCG coverage (IRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.95). Our exploratory study provides evidence that high temperature might not be associated with low transmissibility and countries having neonatal BCG vaccination policy had a low fatality rate of COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Kumar A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7580966 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19.

Kumar Amit A Misra Shubham S Verma Vivek V Vishwakarma Ramesh K RK Kamal Vineet Kumar VK Nath Manabesh M Prakash Kiran K Upadhyay Ashish Datt AD Sahu Jitendra Kumar JK

PloS one 20201022 10

The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collec ...[more]

PMID: 33091086

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Project description:BCG vaccination is recommended at birth in low-income countries, but vaccination is often delayed. Often 20-dose vials of BCG are not opened unless at least ten children are present for vaccination ("restricted vial-opening policy"). BCG coverage is usually reported as 12-month coverage, not disclosing the delay in vaccination. Several studies show that BCG at birth lowers neonatal mortality. We assessed BCG coverage at different ages and explored reasons for delay in BCG vaccination in rural Guinea-Bissau.Bandim Health Project (BHP) runs a health and demographic surveillance system covering women and their children in 182 randomly selected village clusters in rural Guinea-Bissau. BCG coverage was assessed for children born in 2010, when the restricted vial-opening policy was universally implemented, and in 2012-2013, where BHP provided BCG to all children at monthly visits in selected intervention regions. Factors associated with delayed BCG vaccination were evaluated using logistic regression models. Coverage between intervention and control regions were evaluated in log-binomial regression models providing prevalence ratios.Among 3951 children born in 2010, vaccination status was assessed for 84%. BCG coverage by 1 week of age was 11%, 38% by 1 month, and 92% by 12 months. If BCG had been given at first contact with the health system, 1-week coverage would have been 35% and 1-month coverage 54%. When monthly visits were introduced in intervention regions, 1-month coverage was higher in intervention regions (88%) than in control regions (51%), the prevalence ratio being 1.74 (1.53-2.00). Several factors, including socioeconomic factors, were associated with delayed BCG vaccination in the 2010-birth cohort. When BCG was available at monthly visits these factors were no longer associated with delayed BCG vaccination, only region of residence was associated with delayed BCG vaccination.BCG coverage during the first months of life is low in Guinea-Bissau. Providing BCG at monthly vaccination visits removes the risk factors associated with delayed BCG vaccination.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study is to assess the determinants of BCG vaccination in Ethiopia from 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). SETTING:Since Ethiopia has nine regional states and two administrative cities, sample was taken from all the divisions. The population-based sample was intended to provide estimates of key indicators for the country. PARTICIPANT:The sampling frame used for the 2016 EDHS is the Ethiopia Population and Housing Census. From 15 683 women recorded in EDHS dataset, women with no child (n=10 379) were excluded from the study. Therefore, the total sample size for this study was 5304 women. The outcome variable was BCG immunisation status of children. RESULT:Out of the study participants (n=5304), the majority were in between 20 and 34 years of age (73.8%). The median age of the respondents was 28.4 (SD=±6.5) years old. Prevalence of BCG vaccination was 63.6% (n=3373) and BCG vaccination coverage in urban residents was higher (88%) than rural residents (57.3%). Mothers' age between 20 up to 34 (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.48; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.93) and between 35 up to 49 (AOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.46) were more likely to vaccinate their child's than those mothers' age less than 20. Mothers settled in urban areas were two times more likely to vaccinate their child's than those living in rural areas (AOR=1.94; 95% CI: 1.45 to 2.60). Mothers with greater antenatal visits show higher BCG vaccination, Antenatal Care (ANC) 4 and above (AOR=3.48; 95% CI: 2.91 to 4.15). BCG vaccination is higher for mothers delivered at non-governmental organisation health facility than home (AOR=2.9; 95% CI: 1.69 to 4.96). Maternal occupation and wealth index also had a significant association with BCG vaccination. CONCLUSION:BCG vaccination coverage, in this study, was lower and determinant factors for BCG vaccination were residence, mother's age, place of delivery, mother's antenatal visit, wealth index and mother's occupation.

Project description:BackgroundMandated vaccination for school attendance is a growing strategy internationally. Our aim was to investigate the effects of implementing school vaccination mandates on pediatric population vaccine coverage.MethodsIn this systematic review, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, the Education Resources Information Center (ERIC) and the PAIS Index for empirical studies of implementation of a primary or secondary school vaccination requirement published in any language through March 2019 with vaccination rates as an outcome. We sought additional studies by consulting experts, reference lists and grey literature sources. Included studies were too heterogeneous for meta-analysis; thus, we extracted data using a standardized rubric and synthesized the results narratively.ResultsAmong the 4232 citations obtained, 20 studies met the inclusion criteria. Eighteen were conducted with US data, 1 with Italian data, and 1 with Australian data. Four studies examined school-entry mandates, and 16 examined adolescent requirements. An uncontrolled before-after design was used in 10 studies, cross-sectional analysis in 7, a retrospective cohort design in 2, and a prospective cohort in 1. In many cases, increased documentation of coverage followed the addition of new requirements. The exception to this was human papillomavirus vaccination mandates, which were highly controversial, in the United States. The studies contained notable risks of bias, with cointerventions rarely acknowledged or accounted for, and subpopulations often excluded. A substantial risk of ecological fallacy existed for most studies.InterpretationVaccination mandates appear largely associated with increased vaccination coverage, but it is not possible to attribute causality to the mandate in most studies. High-quality implementation research that uses whole-population coverage data and takes into consideration cointerventions, confounders, clustering of unvaccinated populations and context is required.

Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is the ninth leading cause of death worldwide and the leading cause from a single infectious agent. Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) is the only licensed vaccine for TB, yet its efficacy remains debated with variations in vaccine sub-strains, policies, and practices observed across the world. Three BCG vaccination policies were implemented across adjoining regions in the South West of Ireland from 1972; neonatal vaccination (vaccinated Region-A), vaccination of children aged 10-12 years (vaccinated Region-B) and no vaccination (unvaccinated Region-C). The aim of this study is to examine the impact of different BCG vaccination policies on incidence of TB disease in the South of Ireland over a 13-year period.MethodsCases of active TB disease from 2003 to 2016 were identified through surveillance data. Residential addresses for each case were geocoded using the Google Maps API. Addresses were linked to 2011 census population data and to Local Health Offices BCG coverage data for study regions A-C. A steady-state population was assumed to calculate the 13-year incidence of TB disease. Using SatScan (v9.4.4), spatial clusters were identified at a small area level with the spatial scan statistic based on the discrete Poisson probability distribution.ResultsOf 621 TB disease cases identified, 510 could be linked to the study area based on the reported addresses. The median age was 42 years (range 4 months - 94 years), 65% male and 66% Irish born. The incidence of TB disease was higher in the unvaccinated population, region-C 132/100,000 (95% CI 116-150) versus vaccinated region-A 56/100,000 (95%CI 45-69) and region-B 44/100,000 (95%CI 29-63). A spatial cluster analysis identified a single high-risk cluster in region -C where the relative risk (vs. the areas outside of the cluster) was 4.94 (95% CI 4.03 to 5.96).ConclusionOur study demonstrates significant regional variation in the incidence of TB in demographically similar populations based on BCG vaccination policy. This observation is particularly noteworthy in a country with low TB disease incidence such as Ireland. These findings strengthen existing data demonstrating efficacy of BCG vaccination for primary prevention of TB disease.

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Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19.

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Global impact of environmental temperature and BCG vaccination coverage on the transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19.

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