Dataset Information

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

ABSTRACT: Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

SUBMITTER: Azarian T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7580979 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Azarian Taj T Martinez Pamela P PP Arnold Brian J BJ Qiu Xueting X Grant Lindsay R LR Corander Jukka J Fraser Christophe C Croucher Nicholas J NJ Hammitt Laura L LL Reid Raymond R Santosham Mathuram M Weatherholtz Robert C RC Bentley Stephen D SD O'Brien Katherine L KL Lipsitch Marc M Hanage William P WP

PLoS biology 20201022 10

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We ...[more]

PMID: 33091022

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Project description:The bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae is one of the leading causes of fatal infections affecting humans. Intriguingly, phylogenetic analysis shows that the species constitutes one evolutionary lineage in a cluster of the otherwise commensal Streptococcus mitis strains, with which humans live in harmony. In a comparative analysis of 35 genomes, including phylogenetic analyses of all predicted genes, we have shown that the pathogenic pneumococcus has evolved into a master of genomic flexibility while lineages that evolved into the nonpathogenic S. mitis secured harmonious coexistence with their host by stabilizing an approximately 15%-reduced genome devoid of many virulence genes. Our data further provide evidence that interspecies gene transfer between S. pneumoniae and S. mitis occurs in a unidirectional manner, i.e., from S. mitis to S. pneumoniae. Import of genes from S. mitis and other mitis, anginosus, and salivarius group streptococci ensured allelic replacements and antigenic diversification and has been driving the evolution of the remarkable structural diversity of capsular polysaccharides of S. pneumoniae. Our study explains how the unique structural diversity of the pneumococcal capsule emerged and conceivably will continue to increase and reveals a striking example of the fragile border between the commensal and pathogenic lifestyles. While genomic plasticity enabling quick adaptation to environmental stress is a necessity for the pathogenic streptococci, the commensal lifestyle benefits from stability. Importance: One of the leading causes of fatal infections affecting humans, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and the commensal Streptococcus mitis are closely related obligate symbionts associated with hominids. Faced with a shortage of accessible hosts, the two opposing lifestyles evolved in parallel. We have shown that the nonpathogenic S. mitis secured harmonious coexistence with its host by stabilizing a reduced genome devoid of many virulence genes. Meanwhile, the pathogenic pneumococcus evolved into a master of genomic flexibility and imports genes from S. mitis and other related streptococci. This process ensured antigenic diversification and has been driving the evolution of the remarkable structural diversity of capsular polysaccharides of S. pneumoniae, which conceivably will continue to increase and present a challenge to disease prevention.

Dataset Information

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Publications

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.

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