The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated.

Methods

We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact.

Findings

Even temporary dis

SUBMITTER: Cilloni L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7584493 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature