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Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Given the costs of alcohol to society, it is important to evaluate whether local alcohol licensing decisions can mitigate the effects of alcohol misuse. Robust natural experiment evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions could potentially inform and improve local decision-making. We aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions could be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a causal inference framework. DESIGN:Three natural experiments. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:Three English local areas of 1000-15?000 people each. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR:The case study interventions were (i) the closure of a nightclub following reviews; (ii) closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews and (iii) implementation of new local licensing guidance (LLG). Trends in outcomes were compared with synthetic counterfactuals created using Bayesian structural time-series. MEASUREMENTS:Time-series data were obtained on emergency department admissions, ambulance call-outs and alcohol-related crime at the Lower or Middle Super Output geographical aggregation level. FINDINGS:Closure of the nightclub led to temporary 4-month reductions in antisocial behaviour (-18%; 95% credible interval - 37%, -4%), with no change in other outcomes. Closure of the restaurant/nightclub did not lead to measurable changes in outcomes. The new licensing guidance led to small reductions in drunk and disorderly behaviour (nine of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned end of the LLG coincided with an increase in domestic violence of two incidents per month. CONCLUSIONS:The impact of local alcohol policy, even at the level of individual premises, can be evaluated using a causal inference framework. Local government actions such as closure or restriction of alcohol venues and alcohol licensing may have a positive impact on health and crime in the immediate surrounding area.

SUBMITTER: de Vocht F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7586832 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.

de Vocht Frank F McQuire Cheryl C Brennan Alan A Egan Matt M Angus Colin C Kaner Eileen E Beard Emma E Brown Jamie J De Angelis Daniela D Carter Nick N Murray Barbara B Dukes Rachel R Greenwood Elizabeth E Holden Susan S Jago Russell R Hickman Matthew M

Addiction (Abingdon, England) 20200310 11

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Given the costs of alcohol to society, it is important to evaluate whether local alcohol licensing decisions can mitigate the effects of alcohol misuse. Robust natural experiment evaluations of the impact of individual licensing decisions could potentially inform and improve local decision-making. We aimed to assess whether alcohol licensing decisions could be evaluated at small spatial scale by using a causal inference framework.<h4>Design</h4>Three natural experimen ...[more]

PMID: 32045079

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Public health in England has opportunities to reduce alcohol-related harms via shaping the availability and accessibility of alcohol through the licensing function in local government. While the constraints of licensing legislation have been recognised, what is currently little understood are the day-to-day realities of how public health practitioners enact the licensing role, and how they can influence the local alcohol environment. METHODS:To address this, a mixed-methods study was conducted across 24 local authorities in Greater London between 2016 and 17. Data collection involved ethnographic observation of public health practitioners' alcohol licensing work (in eight local authorities); a survey of public health practitioners (n =?18); interviews with licensing stakeholders (n =?10); and analysis of public health licensing data from five local authorities. Fieldnotes and interview transcripts were analysed thematically, and quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS:Results indicated that some public health teams struggle to justify the resources required to engage with licensing processes when they perceive little capacity to influence licensing decisions. Other public health teams consider the licensing role as important for shaping the local alcohol environment, and also as a strategic approach for positioning public health within the council. Practitioners use different processes to assess the potential risks of licence applications but also the potential strengths of their objections, to determine when and how actions should be taken. Identifying the direct influence of public health on individual licences is challenging, but the study revealed how practitioners did achieve some level of impact, for example through negotiation with applicants. CONCLUSIONS:This study shows public health impact following alcohol licensing work is difficult to measure in terms of reducing alcohol-related harms, which poses challenges for justifying this work amid resource constraints. However, there is potential added value of the licensing role in strategic positioning of public health in local government to influence broader determinants of health.

Project description:BackgroundPublic health teams (PHTs) in England and Scotland engage to varying degrees in local alcohol licensing systems to try to reduce alcohol-related harms. No previous quantitative evidence is available on the effectiveness of this engagement. We aimed to quantify the effects of PHT engagement in alcohol licensing on selected health and crime outcomes.Methods39 PHTs in England (n = 27) and Scotland (n = 12) were recruited (of 40 contacted) for diversity in licensing engagement level and region, with higher activity areas matched to lower activity areas. Each PHT's engagement in licensing for each 6 month period from April 2012 to March 2019 was quantified using a new measure (PHIAL) developed using structured interviews, documentary analyses, and expert consultation. Outcomes examined were ambulance callouts, alcohol-related hospital admissions, alcohol-related and alcohol-specific mortality and violent, sexual and public order offences. Timeseries were analysed using multivariable negative binomial mixed-effects models. Correlations were assessed between each outcome and 18-month average PHIAL score (primary metric), cumulative PHIAL scores and change in PHIAL scores. Additionally, 6-month lagged correlations were also assessed.FindingsThere was no clear evidence of any associations between the primary exposure metric and the public health or crime outcomes examined, nor between cumulative PHIAL scores or change in PHIAL score and any outcomes. There were no significant associations in England or Scotland when analysed separately or between outcomes and lagged exposure metrics.InterpretationThere is no clear evidence that allocating PHT resources to engaging in alcohol licensing is associated with downstream reductions in alcohol-related health harms or crimes, in the short term or over a seven year follow-up period. Such engagement likely has benefits in shaping the licensing system to take account of health issues longer term, but as current systems cannot reduce alcohol availability or contain online sales, their potential benefits are somewhat constrained.FundingThe ExILEnS project is funded by the NIHR Public Health Research Programme (project number 15/129/11). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

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Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.

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Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls.

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