Forecasting influenza in Europe using a metapopulation model incorporating cross-border commuting and air travel.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kramer SC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7588111 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Forecasting influenza in Europe using a metapopulation model incorporating cross-border commuting and air travel.
Kramer Sarah C SC Pei Sen S Shaman Jeffrey J
PLoS computational biology 20201014 10
Past work has shown that models incorporating human travel can improve the quality of influenza forecasts. Here, we develop and validate a metapopulation model of twelve European countries, in which international translocation of virus is driven by observed commuting and air travel flows, and use this model to generate influenza forecasts in conjunction with incidence data from the World Health Organization. We find that, although the metapopulation model fits the data well, it offers no improve ...[more]
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