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Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

ABSTRACT: AIMS?:To assess contemporary pre-test probability estimates for obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with stable chest pain. METHODS AND RESULTS?:In this substudy of a multicentre randomized controlled trial, we compared 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-endorsed pre-test probabilities with observed prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease on computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA). We assessed associations between pre-test probability, 5-year coronary heart disease death or non-fatal myocardial infarction and study intervention (standard care vs. CTCA). The study population consisted of 3755 patients (30-75?years, 46% women) with a median pre-test probability of 11% of whom 1622 (43%) had a pre-test probability of >15%. In those who underwent CTCA (n?=?1613), the prevalence of obstructive disease was 22%. When divided into deciles of pre-test probability, the observed disease prevalence was similar but higher than the corresponding median pre-test probability [median difference 2.3 (1.3-5.6)%]. There were more clinical events in patients with a pre-test probability >15% compared to those at 5-15% and <5% (4.1%, 1.5%, and 1.4%, respectively, P?15% (2.8% vs. 5.3%, log rank P?=?0.01), although this interaction was not statistically significant on multivariable modelling. CONCLUSION?:The updated 2019 ESC guideline pre-test probability recommendations tended to slightly underestimate disease prevalence in our cohort. Pre-test probability is a powerful predictor of future coronary events and helps select those who may derive the greatest absolute benefit from CTCA.

SUBMITTER: Bing R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7590886 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

Bing Rong R Singh Trisha T Dweck Marc R MR Mills Nicholas L NL Williams Michelle C MC Adamson Philip D PD Newby David E DE

European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes 20201001 4

<h4>Aims</h4>To assess contemporary pre-test probability estimates for obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with stable chest pain.<h4>Methods and results</h4>In this substudy of a multicentre randomized controlled trial, we compared 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-endorsed pre-test probabilities with observed prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease on computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA). We assessed associations between pre-test probability, 5-year cor ...[more]

PMID: 31977010

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Project description:The American College of Cardiology (ACC) and European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS) have recently published recommendations for the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin-9 (PCSK9) inhibitors in situations of very high risk. We aim to assess in the real world the suitability of PCSK9 inhibitors for acute coronary syndromes.We analyzed a prospective Swiss cohort of 2023 patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndromes between 2009 and 2014 with available data for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lipid-lowering therapy at 1 year. Clinical familial hypercholesterolemia was defined using the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network algorithm as unlikely, possible, probable, or definite. We simulated a fixed relative reduction of 24% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels at 1 year in all patients not treated with ezetimibe, irrespective of the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and statin regimen. At 1 year, 94.3% of patients were treated with statin, 5.8% with ezetimibe, and 35.8% of patients had on-target low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (<1.8 mmol/L); 25.6% met criteria for possible or probable/definite familial hypercholesterolemia. After a simulation of the lipid-lowering effect of ezetimibe, the proportion of patients who would be eligible for PCSK9 inhibitors at 1 year was 13.4% using American College of Cardiology criteria and 2.7% using European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society criteria. Patients with possible or probable/definite familial hypercholesterolemia were more eligible for PCSK9 inhibitors compared with their non-familial hypercholesterolemia counterparts: 27.6% versus 8.8% according to American College of Cardiology criteria and 6.6% versus 1.8% according to European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society criteria (P<0.001).Recommendations made by the American College of Cardiology guidelines would lead to 5-fold higher eligibility rates for PCSK9 inhibitors compared to the European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society consensus statement in acute coronary syndrome patients.

Project description:AimsTo explore differences in the use of lipid lowering therapy and/or achievement of lipid guideline targets in patients with and without prior depression and influence of sex in very high-risk coronary patients.Methods & findingsA retrospective observational cohort study was conducted using individual-level linked electronic health record data in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (2012-2017) in Wales. The cohort comprised of 13,781 patients (27.4% female), with 26.1% having prior depression. Lipid levels were recorded in 10,050 patients of whom 25% had depression. History of depression was independently associated with not having lipids checked (OR 0.79 95%CI 0.72-0.87 p<0.001). Patients with prior depression were less likely to achieve targets for low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C <1.8mmol/l), non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C <2.6mmol/l) and triglycerides (<2.3mmol/l) than patients without depression (OR 0.86 95%CI 0.78-0.96 p = 0.007, OR 0.80 95%CI 0.69-0.92 p = 0.003 & OR 0.69 95CI% 0.61-0.79 p<0.001 respectively). Females were less likely to achieve targets for LDL-C and non-HDL-C than males (OR 0.55 95%CI 0.50-0.61 p<0.001 & OR 0.63 95%CI 0.55-0.73 p<0.001). There was an additive effect of depression and sex; females with depression were not only least likely to be tested (OR 0.74 95%CI 0.65-0.84 p<0.001) but also (where levels were known) less likely to achieve LDL-C (OR 0.47 95%CI 0.41-0.55 p<0.001) and non-HDL-C targets (OR 0.50 95%CI 0.41-0.60 p<0.001). It was not possible to look at the influence of medication adherence on achievement of lipid targets due to limitations of the use of anonymised routinely-held clinical care data.ConclusionPatients with prior depression were less likely to have their lipids monitored and achieve guideline targets within 1-year. Females with depression are the least likely to be tested and achieve lipid targets, suggesting not only a greater risk of future events, but also an opportunity to improve care.

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Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

Publications

Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

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