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Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

ABSTRACT: AIMS?:To assess contemporary pre-test probability estimates for obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with stable chest pain. METHODS AND RESULTS?:In this substudy of a multicentre randomized controlled trial, we compared 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-endorsed pre-test probabilities with observed prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease on computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA). We assessed associations between pre-test probability, 5-year coronary heart disease death or non-fatal myocardial infarction and study intervention (standard care vs. CTCA). The study population consisted of 3755 patients (30-75?years, 46% women) with a median pre-test probability of 11% of whom 1622 (43%) had a pre-test probability of >15%. In those who underwent CTCA (n?=?1613), the prevalence of obstructive disease was 22%. When divided into deciles of pre-test probability, the observed disease prevalence was similar but higher than the corresponding median pre-test probability [median difference 2.3 (1.3-5.6)%]. There were more clinical events in patients with a pre-test probability >15% compared to those at 5-15% and <5% (4.1%, 1.5%, and 1.4%, respectively, P?15% (2.8% vs. 5.3%, log rank P?=?0.01), although this interaction was not statistically significant on multivariable modelling. CONCLUSION?:The updated 2019 ESC guideline pre-test probability recommendations tended to slightly underestimate disease prevalence in our cohort. Pre-test probability is a powerful predictor of future coronary events and helps select those who may derive the greatest absolute benefit from CTCA.

SUBMITTER: Bing R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7590886 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

Bing Rong R Singh Trisha T Dweck Marc R MR Mills Nicholas L NL Williams Michelle C MC Adamson Philip D PD Newby David E DE

European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes 20201001 4

<h4>Aims</h4>To assess contemporary pre-test probability estimates for obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with stable chest pain.<h4>Methods and results</h4>In this substudy of a multicentre randomized controlled trial, we compared 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-endorsed pre-test probabilities with observed prevalence of obstructive coronary artery disease on computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA). We assessed associations between pre-test probability, 5-year cor ...[more]

PMID: 31977010

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Project description:The American College of Cardiology (ACC) and European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS) have recently published recommendations for the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin-9 (PCSK9) inhibitors in situations of very high risk. We aim to assess in the real world the suitability of PCSK9 inhibitors for acute coronary syndromes.We analyzed a prospective Swiss cohort of 2023 patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndromes between 2009 and 2014 with available data for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lipid-lowering therapy at 1 year. Clinical familial hypercholesterolemia was defined using the Dutch Lipid Clinic Network algorithm as unlikely, possible, probable, or definite. We simulated a fixed relative reduction of 24% in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels at 1 year in all patients not treated with ezetimibe, irrespective of the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and statin regimen. At 1 year, 94.3% of patients were treated with statin, 5.8% with ezetimibe, and 35.8% of patients had on-target low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (<1.8 mmol/L); 25.6% met criteria for possible or probable/definite familial hypercholesterolemia. After a simulation of the lipid-lowering effect of ezetimibe, the proportion of patients who would be eligible for PCSK9 inhibitors at 1 year was 13.4% using American College of Cardiology criteria and 2.7% using European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society criteria. Patients with possible or probable/definite familial hypercholesterolemia were more eligible for PCSK9 inhibitors compared with their non-familial hypercholesterolemia counterparts: 27.6% versus 8.8% according to American College of Cardiology criteria and 6.6% versus 1.8% according to European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society criteria (P<0.001).Recommendations made by the American College of Cardiology guidelines would lead to 5-fold higher eligibility rates for PCSK9 inhibitors compared to the European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society consensus statement in acute coronary syndrome patients.

Project description:ImportanceClinical decisions are ideally based on evidence generated from multiple randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating clinical outcomes, but historically, few clinical guideline recommendations have been based entirely on this type of evidence.ObjectiveTo determine the class and level of evidence (LOE) supporting current major cardiovascular society guideline recommendations, and changes in LOE over time.Data sourcesCurrent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) clinical guideline documents (2008-2018), as identified on cardiovascular society websites, and immediate predecessors to these guideline documents (1999-2014), as referenced in current guideline documents.Study selectionComprehensive guideline documents including recommendations organized by class and LOE.Data extraction and synthesisThe number of recommendations and the distribution of LOE (A [supported by data from multiple RCTs or a single, large RCT], B [supported by data from observational studies or a single RCT], and C [supported by expert opinion only]) were determined for each guideline document.Main outcomes and measuresThe proportion of guideline recommendations supported by evidence from multiple RCTs (LOE A).ResultsAcross 26 current ACC/AHA guidelines (2930 recommendations; median, 121 recommendations per guideline [25th-75th percentiles, 76-155]), 248 recommendations (8.5%) were classified as LOE A, 1465 (50.0%) as LOE B, and 1217 (41.5%) as LOE C. The median proportion of LOE A recommendations was 7.9% (25th-75th percentiles, 0.9%-15.2%). Across 25 current ESC guideline documents (3399 recommendations; median, 130 recommendations per guideline [25th-75th percentiles, 111-154]), 484 recommendations (14.2%) were classified as LOE A, 1053 (31.0%) as LOE B, and 1862 (54.8%) as LOE C. When comparing current guidelines with prior versions, the proportion of recommendations that were LOE A did not increase in either ACC/AHA (median, 9.0% [current] vs 11.7% [prior]) or ESC guidelines (median, 15.1% [current] vs 17.6% [prior]).Conclusions and relevanceAmong recommendations in major cardiovascular society guidelines, only a small percentage were supported by evidence from multiple RCTs or a single, large RCT. This pattern does not appear to have meaningfully improved from 2008 to 2018.

Project description:ObjectivesTo test the accuracy of clinical pre-test probability (PTP) for prediction of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in a pan-European setting.MethodsPatients with suspected CAD and stable chest pain who were clinically referred for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) or computed tomography (CT) were included by clinical sites participating in the pilot study of the European multi-centre DISCHARGE trial. PTP of CAD was determined using the Diamond-Forrester (D+F) prediction model initially introduced in 1979 and the updated D+F model from 2011. Obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) was defined by one at least 50% diameter coronary stenosis by both CT and ICA.ResultsIn total, 1440 patients (654 female, 786 male) were included at 25 clinical sites from May 2014 until July 2017. Of these patients, 725 underwent CT, while 715 underwent ICA. Both prediction models overestimated the prevalence of obstructive CAD (31.7%, 456 of 1440 patients, PTP: initial D+F 58.9% (28.1-90.6%), updated D+F 47.3% (34.2-59.9%), both p < 0.001), but overestimation of disease prevalence was higher for the initial D+F (p < 0.001). The discriminative ability was higher for the updated D+F 2011 (AUC of 0.73 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.76 versus AUC of 0.70 CI 0.67-0.73 for the initial D+F; p < 0.001; odds ratio (or) 1.55 CI 1.29-1.86, net reclassification index 0.11 CI 0.05-0.16, p < 0.001).ConclusionsClinical PTP calculation using the initial and updated D+F prediction models relevantly overestimates the actual prevalence of obstructive CAD in patients with stable chest pain clinically referred for ICA and CT suggesting that further refinements to improve clinical decision-making are needed.Trial registrationhttps://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02400229 KEY POINTS: • Clinical pre-test probability calculation using the initial and updated D+F model overestimates the prevalence of obstructive CAD identified by ICA and CT. • Overestimation of disease prevalence is higher for the initial D+F compared with the updated D+F. • Diagnostic accuracy of PTP assessment varies strongly between different clinical sites throughout Europe.

Dataset Information

Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

Publications

Validation of European Society of Cardiology pre-test probabilities for obstructive coronary artery disease in suspected stable angina.

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