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Toward reliable habitat suitability and accessibility models in an era of multiple environmental stressors.

ABSTRACT: Global biodiversity declines, largely driven by climate and land-use changes, urge the development of transparent guidelines for effective conservation strategies. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a widely used approach for predicting potential shifts in species distributions, which can in turn support ecological conservation where environmental change is expected to impact population and community dynamics. Improvements in SDM accuracy through incorporating intra- and interspecific processes have boosted the SDM field forward, but simultaneously urge harmonizing the vast array of SDM approaches into an overarching, widely adoptable, and scientifically justified SDM framework. In this review, we first discuss how climate warming and land-use change interact to govern population dynamics and species' distributions, depending on species' dispersal and evolutionary abilities. We particularly emphasize that both land-use and climate change can reduce the accessibility to suitable habitat for many species, rendering the ability of species to colonize new habitat and to exchange genetic variation a crucial yet poorly implemented component of SDM. We then unite existing methodological SDM practices that aim to increase model accuracy through accounting for multiple global change stressors, dispersal, or evolution, while shifting our focus to model feasibility. We finally propose a roadmap harmonizing model accuracy and feasibility, applicable to both common and rare species, particularly those with poor dispersal abilities. This roadmap (a) paves the way for an overarching SDM framework allowing comparison and synthesis of different SDM studies and (b) could advance SDM to a level that allows systematic integration of SDM outcomes into effective conservation plans.

SUBMITTER: De Kort H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7593202 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Toward reliable habitat suitability and accessibility models in an era of multiple environmental stressors.

De Kort Hanne H Baguette Michel M Lenoir Jonathan J Stevens Virginie M VM

Ecology and evolution 20200922 20

Global biodiversity declines, largely driven by climate and land-use changes, urge the development of transparent guidelines for effective conservation strategies. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a widely used approach for predicting potential shifts in species distributions, which can in turn support ecological conservation where environmental change is expected to impact population and community dynamics. Improvements in SDM accuracy through incorporating intra- and interspecific proces ...[more]

PMID: 33144939

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Project description:We assessed how multi- and univariate models reflect marine environmental health based on macrobenthic community responses to three environmental stressor categories: hydrodynamics, organic enrichment and metal contamination. We then compared the models with the benthic index AMBI (AZTI Marine Biotic Index). Macrobenthic community and physicochemical variables were sampled at 35 sites along Babitonga Bay, a subtropical estuary in Southern Brazil. Distance-based linear modelling identified depth, grain size and organic matter as well as Cu and Zn as key stressors affecting the macrobenthos. Using canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP), we developed three multivariate models based on the variability in community composition, creating stress gradients. The metal gradient showed better correlation with the benthic community. Sediment quality indices (Geoaccumulation Index and Contamination Factor) showed a low to moderate contamination status, with higher concentrations for Cr, Ni and Zn at the inner areas of the bay. According to AMBI, Babitonga Bay has a "good" environmental health status, and the AMBI values show stronger correlations with the hydrodynamic and organic enrichment gradients (r = 0.50 and r = 0.47) rather than the metal gradient (r = 0.29). Lumbrineridae polychaetes (not included in the AMBI list) and Scoloplos sp. were negatively related to the metal contamination gradient and were considered sensitive, while Sigambra sp., Magelona papillicornis, the gastropod Heleobia australis and species of the crustacean order Mysida were positively related to the gradient and considered tolerant to higher concentrations of metals in the sediment. Despite the inconsistency in the ecological classification provided by AMBI and its relationship with the metal gradient, our results suggest that the environmental quality was satisfactory for the studied gradients. The metal gradient showed the weakest correlation to AMBI. In such cases, the ecological classification of taxa by the index should be evaluated under the perspective of the action of inorganic genotoxic contaminants represented by metals.

Dataset Information

Toward reliable habitat suitability and accessibility models in an era of multiple environmental stressors.

Publications

Toward reliable habitat suitability and accessibility models in an era of multiple environmental stressors.

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