Dataset Information

Pancreatitis, Pancreatic Cancer, and Their Metabolic Sequelae: Projected Burden to 2050.

ABSTRACT: Introduction: Future burden has been modeled from population-based data for several common gastrointestinal diseases. However, as we enter the third decade in the 21st century, there are no such data on diseases of the pancreas holistically. The study aimed to estimate future incidence of pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, diabetes of the exocrine pancreas (DEP), and exocrine pancreatic dysfunction (EPD) as well as years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death in individuals with those diseases up to 2050.

Methods: Historical New Zealand nationwide data on hospital discharge, pharmaceutical dispensing, cancer, and mortality were obtained. Annual incidence of each disease and annual YLLs due to premature death in individuals with each disease were calculated. A time series analysis using the stepwise autoregressive method was conducted.

Results: Pancreatitis yielded the highest projected incidence (123.7 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval, 116.7-130.7) and YLL (14,709 years; 13,642-15,777) in 2050. The projected incidence and YLL of pancreatic cancer were 18.6 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 13.1-24.1) and 14,247 years (11,349-17,144) in 2050, respectively. Compared with pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer, DEP and EPD yielded lower but more steeply increasing projected incidence rates and YLLs.

Discussion: The findings suggest that the burden of pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, DEP, and EPD will rise in the next 3 decades unless healthcare systems introduce effective prevention or early treatment strategies for diseases of the pancreas and their sequelae.

SUBMITTER: Cho J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7594914 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pancreatitis, Pancreatic Cancer, and Their Metabolic Sequelae: Projected Burden to 2050.

Cho Jaelim J Petrov Maxim S MS

Clinical and translational gastroenterology 20201101 11

<h4>Introduction</h4>Future burden has been modeled from population-based data for several common gastrointestinal diseases. However, as we enter the third decade in the 21st century, there are no such data on diseases of the pancreas holistically. The study aimed to estimate future incidence of pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, diabetes of the exocrine pancreas (DEP), and exocrine pancreatic dysfunction (EPD) as well as years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death in individuals with those di ...[more]

PMID: 33259158

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Project description:BackgroundStroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).MethodsData on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050.ResultsFrom 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs.ConclusionsWith the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.

Dataset Information

Pancreatitis, Pancreatic Cancer, and Their Metabolic Sequelae: Projected Burden to 2050.

Publications

Pancreatitis, Pancreatic Cancer, and Their Metabolic Sequelae: Projected Burden to 2050.

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