Dataset Information

Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation.

ABSTRACT: The international community has been put in an unprecedented situation by the COVID-19 pandemic. Creating models to describe and quantify alternative mitigation strategies becomes increasingly urgent. In this study, we propose an agent-based model of disease transmission in a society divided into closely connected families, workplaces, and social groups. This allows us to discuss mitigation strategies, including targeted quarantine measures. We find that workplace and more diffuse social contacts are roughly equally important to disease spread, and that an effective lockdown must target both. We examine the cost-benefit of replacing a lockdown with tracing and quarantining contacts of the infected. Quarantine can contribute substantially to mitigation, even if it has short duration and is done within households. When reopening society, testing and quarantining is a strategy that is much cheaper in terms of lost workdays than a long lockdown. A targeted quarantine strategy is quite efficient with only 5 days of quarantine, and its effect increases when testing is more widespread.

SUBMITTER: Eilersen A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7596701 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation.

Eilersen Andreas A Sneppen Kim K

Scientific reports 20201029 1

The international community has been put in an unprecedented situation by the COVID-19 pandemic. Creating models to describe and quantify alternative mitigation strategies becomes increasingly urgent. In this study, we propose an agent-based model of disease transmission in a society divided into closely connected families, workplaces, and social groups. This allows us to discuss mitigation strategies, including targeted quarantine measures. We find that workplace and more diffuse social contact ...[more]

PMID: 33122753

Similar Datasets

Project description:A variety of mitigation strategies have been employed against the Covid-19 pandemic. Social distancing is still one of the main methods to reduce spread, but it entails a high toll on personal freedom and economic life. Alternative mitigation strategies that do not come with the same problems but are effective at preventing disease spread are therefore needed. Repetitive mass-testing using PCR assays for viral RNA has been suggested, but as a stand-alone strategy this would be prohibitively resource intensive. Here, we suggest a strategy that aims at targeting the limited resources available for viral RNA testing to subgroups that are more likely than the average population to yield a positive test result. Importantly, these pre-selected subgroups include symptom-free people. By testing everyone in these subgroups, in addition to symptomatic cases, large fractions of pre- and asymptomatic people can be identified, which is only possible by testing-based mitigation. We call this strategy smart testing (ST). In principle, pre-selected subgroups can be found in different ways, but for the purpose of this study we analyze a pre-selection procedure based on cheap and fast virus antigen tests. We quantify the potential reduction of the epidemic reproduction number by such a two-stage ST strategy. In addition to a scenario where such a strategy is available to the whole population, we analyze local applications, e.g. in a country, company, or school, where the tested subgroups are also in exchange with the untested population. Our results suggest that a two-stage ST strategy can be effective to curb pandemic spread, at costs that are clearly outweighed by the economic benefit. It is technically and logistically feasible to employ such a strategy, and our model predicts that it is even effective when applied only within local groups. We therefore recommend adding two-stage ST to the portfolio of available mitigation strategies, which allow easing social distancing measures without compromising public health.

Project description:ImportanceBlack and Latinx communities have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, yet little work has sought to understand their perspectives.ObjectiveTo explore the experiences of Black and Latinx communities during the pandemic to better understand their perspectives on COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (eg, mask wearing), testing, and vaccines.Design, setting, and participantsIn this community-engaged qualitative study conducted with 18 community-based organizations and 4 health care organizations between November 19, 2020, and February 5, 2021, in New Jersey counties severely affected by the pandemic, group and individual interviews were used to purposively sample 111 Black and Latinx individuals. A total of 13 group interviews were organized by race/ethnicity and language: 4 English-speaking groups with Black participants (n = 34), 3 Spanish-speaking groups with Latinx participants (n = 24), and 4 English-speaking groups with Black and Latinx participants (n = 36). To understand the views of health care workers from these communities, 2 additional groups (n = 9) were convened and supplemented with individual interviews.Main outcomes and measuresDescription of Black and Latinx participants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic and their perspectives on mitigation behaviors, testing, and vaccines.ResultsThe study included 111 participants (87 women [78.4%]; median age, 43 years [range, 18-93 years]). Participants described the devastating effects of the pandemic on themselves, loved ones, and their community. Their experiences were marked by fear, illness, loss, and separation. These experiences motivated intense information seeking, mitigation behaviors, and testing. Nevertheless, vaccine skepticism was high across all groups. Participants did not trust the vaccine development process and wanted clearer information. Black participants expressed that they did not want to be subjects of experiments.Conclusions and relevanceThe remaining unknowns about new vaccines need to be acknowledged and described for Black and Latinx communities to make informed decisions. Ultimately, scientists and public officials need to work transparently to address unanswered questions and work collaboratively with trusted community leaders and health professionals to foster partnered approaches, rather than focusing on marketing campaigns, to eliminate vaccine skepticism.

Dataset Information

Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation.

Publications

Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets