Dataset Information

A nomogram based on pretreatment CT radiomics features for predicting complete response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict complete response (CR) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients using pretreatment CT radiomic features.

Methods

Data of patients diagnosed as ESCC and treated with CCRT in Shantou Central Hospital during the period from January 2013 to December 2015 were retrospectively collected. Eligible patients were included in this study and randomize divided into a training set and a validation set after successive screening. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with logistic regression to select radiomics features calculating Rad-score in the training set. The logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the predictive nomogram model and decision curve was used to analyze the impact of the nomogram model on clinical treatment decisions.

Results

A total of 226 patients were included and randomly divided into two groups, 160 patients in training set and 66 patients in validation set. After LASSO analysis, seven radiomics features were screened out to develop a radiomics signature Rad-score. The AUC of Rad-score was 0.812 (95% CI 0.742-0.869, p?ConclusionWe developed and validated a nomogram model for predicting CR status of ESCC patients after CCRT. The nomogram model was combined radiomics signature Rad-score and clinical staging. This model provided us with an economical and simple method for evaluating the response of chemoradiotherapy for patients with ESCC.

SUBMITTER: Luo HS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7597023 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A nomogram based on pretreatment CT radiomics features for predicting complete response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer.

Luo He-San HS Huang Shao-Fu SF Xu Hong-Yao HY Li Xu-Yuan XY Wu Sheng-Xi SX Wu De-Hua DH

Radiation oncology (London, England) 20201029 1

<h4>Purpose</h4>To develop and validate a nomogram model to predict complete response (CR) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients using pretreatment CT radiomic features.<h4>Methods</h4>Data of patients diagnosed as ESCC and treated with CCRT in Shantou Central Hospital during the period from January 2013 to December 2015 were retrospectively collected. Eligible patients were included in this study and randomize divided into a training set ...[more]

PMID: 33121507

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Project description:ObjectivesTo develop a radiomics model based on contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) to predict the lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and provide decision-making support for clinicians.Patients and methodsThis retrospective study enrolled 334 patients with surgically resected and pathologically confirmed ESCC, including 96 patients with LVI and 238 patients without LVI. All enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a testing cohort at a ratio of 7:3, with the training cohort containing 234 patients (68 patients with LVI and 166 without LVI) and the testing cohort containing 100 patients (28 patients with LVI and 72 without LVI). All patients underwent preoperative CECT scans within 2 weeks before operation. Quantitative radiomics features were extracted from CECT images, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was applied to select radiomics features. Logistic regression (Logistic), support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree (Tree) methods were separately used to establish radiomics models to predict the LVI status in ESCC, and the best model was selected to calculate Radscore, which combined with two clinical CT predictors to build a combined model. The clinical model was also developed by using logistic regression. The receiver characteristic curve (ROC) and decision curve (DCA) analysis were used to evaluate the model performance in predicting the LVI status in ESCC.ResultsIn the radiomics model, Sphericity and gray-level non-uniformity (GLNU) were the most significant radiomics features for predicting LVI. In the clinical model, the maximum tumor thickness based on CECT (cThick) in patients with LVI was significantly greater than that in patients without LVI (P<0.001). Patients with LVI had higher clinical N stage based on CECT (cN stage) than patients without LVI (P<0.001). The ROC analysis showed that both the radiomics model (AUC values were 0.847 and 0.826 in the training and testing cohort, respectively) and the combined model (0.876 and 0.867, respectively) performed better than the clinical model (0.775 and 0.798, respectively), with the combined model exhibiting the best performance.ConclusionsThe combined model incorporating radiomics features and clinical CT predictors may potentially predict the LVI status in ESCC and provide support for clinical treatment decisions.

Project description:Background and purpose: Although patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) can achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgery, one-third of these patients with a pCR may still experience recurrence. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a predictive model to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS) in those patients who achieved pCR. Materials and methods: Two hundred six patients with ESCC were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 146) and a validation cohort (n = 60). Radiomic features were extracted from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images of each patient. Feature reduction was then implemented in two steps, including a multiple segmentation test and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox proportional hazards regression method. A radiomics signature was subsequently constructed and evaluated. For better prediction performance, a clinical nomogram based on clinical risk factors and a nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature and clinical risk factors was built. Finally, the prediction models were further validated by calibration and the clinical usefulness was examined in the validation cohort to determine the optimal prediction model. Results: The radiomics signature was constructed using eight radiomic features and displayed a significant correlation with RFS. The nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature with clinical risk factors achieved optimal performance compared with the radiomics signature (P < 0.001) and clinical nomogram (P < 0.001) in both the training cohort [C-index (95% confidence interval [CI]), 0.746 (0.680-0.812) vs. 0.685 (0.620-0.750) vs. 0.614 (0.538-0.690), respectively] and validation cohort [C-index (95% CI), 0.724 (0.696-0.752) vs. 0.671 (0.624-0.718) vs. 0.629 (0.597-0.661), respectively]. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis revealed that the radiomics nomogram outperformed the other two models. Conclusions: A radiomics nomogram model incorporating radiomics features and clinical factors has been developed and has the improved ability to predict the postoperative recurrence risk in patients with ESCC who achieved pCR after nCRT followed by surgery.

Project description:PURPOSE:To build and validate a radiomics-based nomogram for the prediction of pre-operation lymph node (LN) metastasis in esophageal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS:A total of 197 esophageal cancer patients were enrolled in this study, and their LN metastases have been pathologically confirmed. The data were collected from January 2016 to May 2016; patients in the first three months were set in the training cohort, and patients in April 2016 were set in the validation cohort. About 788 radiomics features were extracted from computed tomography (CT) images of the patients. The elastic-net approach was exploited for dimension reduction and selection of the feature space. The multivariable logistic regression analysis was adopted to build the radiomics signature and another predictive nomogram model. The predictive nomogram model was composed of three factors with the radiomics signature, where CT reported the LN number and position risk level. The performance and usefulness of the built model were assessed by the calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS:Thirteen radiomics features were selected to build the radiomics signature. The radiomics signature was significantly associated with the LN metastasis (P<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the radiomics signature performance in the training cohort was 0.806 (95% CI: 0.732-0.881), and in the validation cohort it was 0.771 (95% CI: 0.632-0.910). The model showed good discrimination, with a Harrell's Concordance Index of 0.768 (0.672 to 0.864, 95% CI) in the training cohort and 0.754 (0.603 to 0.895, 95% CI) in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis showed our model will receive benefit when the threshold probability was larger than 0.15. CONCLUSION:The present study proposed a radiomics-based nomogram involving the radiomics signature, so the CT reported the status of the suspected LN and the dummy variable of the tumor position. It can be potentially applied in the individual preoperative prediction of the LN metastasis status in esophageal cancer patients.

Project description:PurposeTo investigate the value of radiomics models based on CT at different phases (non-contrast-enhanced and contrast-enhanced images) in predicting lymph node (LN) metastasis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).Methods and materialsTwo hundred and seventy-four eligible patients with ESCC were divided into a training set (n =193) and a validation set (n =81). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (LASSO) was used to select radiomics features. The predictive models were constructed with radiomics features and clinical factors through multivariate logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance and clinical application value of the models were evaluated by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). The Delong Test was used to evaluate the differences in AUC among models.ResultsSixteen and eighteen features were respectively selected from non-contrast-enhanced CT (NECT) and contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) images. The model established using only clinical factors (Model 1) has an AUC value of 0.655 (95%CI 0.552-0.759) with a sensitivity of 0.585, a specificity of 0.725 and an accuracy of 0.654. The models contained clinical factors with radiomics features of NECT or/and CECT (Model 2,3,4) have significantly improved prediction performance. The values of AUC of Model 2,3,4 were 0.766, 0.811 and 0.809, respectively. It also achieved a great AUC of 0.800 in the model built with only radiomics features derived from NECT and CECT (Model 5). DCA suggested the potential clinical benefit of model prediction of LN metastasis of ESCC. A comparison of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves using the Delong test indicated that Models 2, 3, 4, and 5 were superior to Model 1(P< 0.05), and no difference was found among Model 2, 3, 4 and Model 5(P > 0.05).ConclusionRadiomics models based on CT at different phases could accurately predict the lymph node metastasis in patients with ESCC, and their predictive efficiency was better than the clinical model based on tumor size criteria. NECT-based radiomics model could be a reasonable option for ESCC patients due to its lower price and availability for renal failure or allergic patients.

Project description:Simple Summary PET/CT is an important staging modality in the baseline assessment of locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Accurate staging and response prediction in these patients is essential for management. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the usefulness of 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics features in predicting outcomes such as tumor and nodal categories, PET-based response to induction chemotherapy, progression-free survival, and overall survival. In a final cohort of 74 patients, we found that the developed radiomics models can predict these clinical and prognostic outcomes with reasonable accuracy, similar or better than those derived from conventional imaging. Future studies with a larger cohort would be helpful in establishing the significance of these models. Abstract This study aimed to assess the usefulness of radiomics features of 18F-FDG PET/CT in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancers (ESCC) in predicting outcomes such as clinical tumor (cT) and nodal (cN) categories, PET response to induction chemotherapy (PET response), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Pretreatment PET/CT images from patients who underwent concurrent chemoradiotherapy from July 2002 to February 2017 were segmented, and data were split into training and test sets. Model development was performed on the training datasets and a maximum of five features were selected. Final diagnostic accuracies were determined using the test dataset. A total of 86 PET/CTs (58 men and 28 women, mean age 65 years) were segmented. Due to small lesion size, 12 patients were excluded. The diagnostic accuracies as derived from the CT, PET, and combined PET/CT test datasets were as follows: cT category—70.4%, 70.4%, and 81.5%, respectively; cN category—69.0%, 86.2%, and 86.2%, respectively; PET response—60.0%, 66.7%, and 70.0%, respectively; PFS—60.7%, 75.0%, and 75.0%, respectively; and OS—51.7%, 55.2%, and 62.1%, respectively. A radiomics assessment of locally advanced ESCC has the potential to predict various clinical outcomes. External validation of these models would be further helpful.

Project description:The lymphovascular invasion (LVI) status facilitates the determination of the optimal therapeutic strategy for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC), but in clinical practice, LVI must be confirmed by postoperative pathology. However, studies of the risk factors for LVI in SESCC are limited. Consequently, this study aimed to identify the risk factors for LVI and use these factors to establish a prediction model. The data of 516 patients who underwent radical esophagectomy between January 2007 and September 2019 were retrospectively collected (training set, n=361, January 2007 to May 2015; validation set, n=155, June 2015 to September 2019). In the training set, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate analyses were utilized to identify predictive factors for LVI in patients with SESCC. A nomogram was then developed using these predictors. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve were used to evaluate the efficiency, accuracy, and clinical utility of the model. LASSO regression indicated that the tumor size, depth of invasion, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis (LNM), sex, circumferential extension, the presence of multiple lesions, and the resection margin were correlated with LVI. However, multivariate analysis revealed that only the tumor size, depth of invasion, tumor differentiation, and LNM were independent risk factors for LVI. Incorporating these four variables, model 1 achieved an AUC of 0.817 in predicting LVI. Adding circumferential extension to model 1 did not appreciably change the AUC and integrated discrimination improvement, but led to a significant increase in the net reclassification improvement (p=0.011). A final nomogram was constructed by incorporating tumor size, depth of invasion, tumor differentiation, LNM, and circumferential extension and showed good discrimination (training set, AUC=0.833; validation set, AUC=0.819) and good calibration in the training and validation sets. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful in both sets. Thus, it is possible to predict the status of LVI using this nomogram scoring system, which can aid the selection of an appropriate treatment plan.

Dataset Information

A nomogram based on pretreatment CT radiomics features for predicting complete response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Publications

A nomogram based on pretreatment CT radiomics features for predicting complete response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer.

Similar Datasets

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