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The effect of eviction moratoriums on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

ABSTRACT: Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increase in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess municipal eviction moratoriums and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.

SUBMITTER: Nande A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7605580 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceHousing insecurity induced by evictions may increase the risk of contracting COVID-19.ObjectiveTo estimate the association of lifting state-level eviction moratoria, which increased housing insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the risk of being diagnosed with COVID-19.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included individuals with commercial insurance or Medicare Advantage who lived in a state that issued an eviction moratorium and were diagnosed with COVID-19 as well as a control group comprising an equal number of randomly selected individuals in these states who were not diagnosed with COVID-19. Data were collected from OptumLabs Data Warehouse, a database of deidentified administrative claims. The study used a difference-in-differences analysis among states that implemented an eviction moratorium between March 13, 2020, and September 4, 2020.ExposuresTime since state-level eviction moratoria were lifted.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome measure was a binary variable indicating whether an individual was diagnosed with COVID-19 for the first time in a given week with International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code U07.1. The study analyzed changes in COVID-19 diagnosis before vs after a state lifted its moratorium compared with changes in states that did not lift it. For sensitivity analyses, models were reestimated on a 2% random sample of all individuals in the claims database during this period in these states.ResultsThe cohort consisted of 509 694 individuals (254 847 [50.0%] diagnosed with COVID-19; mean [SD] age, 47.0 [23.6] years; 239 056 [53.3%] men). During the study period, 43 states and the District of Columbia implemented an eviction moratorium and 7 did not. Among the states that implemented a moratorium, 26 (59.1%) lifted their moratorium before the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued their national moratorium, while 18 (40.1%) maintained theirs. In a Cox difference-in-differences regression model, individuals living in a state that lifted its eviction moratorium experienced higher hazards of a COVID-19 diagnosis beginning 5 weeks after the moratorium was lifted (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.76; P = .004), reaching an HR of 1.83 (95% CI, 1.36-2.46; P < .001) 12 weeks after. Hazards increased in magnitude among individuals with preexisting comorbidities and those living in nonaffluent and rent-burdened areas. Individuals with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 3 or greater had an HR of 2.37 (95% CI, 1.67-3.36; P < .001) at the end of the study period. Those living in nonaffluent areas had an HR of 2.14 (95% CI, 1.51-3.05; P < .001), while those living in areas with a high rent burden had an HR of 2.31 (95% CI, 1.64-3.26; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this difference-in-differences analysis suggest that eviction-led housing insecurity may have exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic.

Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) whole-genome analysis has identified five large clades worldwide which emerged in 2019 (19A and 19B) and in 2020 (20A, 20B, and 20C). This study aimed to analyze the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain using maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses. The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was estimated to have emerged in Wuhan, China, around 24 November 2019. Phylogenetic analyses of the first 12,511 SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences obtained worldwide, including 290 from 11 different regions of Spain, revealed 62 independent introductions of the virus in the country. Most sequences from Spain were distributed in clades characterized by a D614G substitution in the S gene (20A, 20B, and 20C) and an L84S substitution in ORF8 (19B) with 163 and 118 sequences, respectively, with the remaining sequences branching in 19A. A total of 110 (38%) sequences from Spain grouped in four different monophyletic clusters of clade 20A (20A-Sp1 and 20A-Sp2) and 19B clade (19B-Sp1 and 19B-Sp2) along with sequences from 29 countries worldwide. The MRCAs of clusters 19A-Sp1, 20A-Sp1, 19A-Sp2, and 20A-Sp2 were estimated to have occurred in Spain around 21 and 29 January and 6 and 17 February 2020, respectively. The prevalence of clade 19B in Spain (40%) was by far higher than in any other European country during the first weeks of the epidemic, probably as a result of a founder effect. However, this variant was replaced by G614-bearing viruses in April. In vitro assays showed an enhanced infectivity of pseudotyped virions displaying the G614 substitution compared with those having D614, suggesting a fitness advantage of D614G.IMPORTANCE Multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions have been detected in Spain, and at least four resulted in the emergence of locally transmitted clusters that originated not later than mid-February, with further dissemination to many other countries around the world, and a few weeks before the explosion of COVID-19 cases detected in Spain during the first week of March. The majority of the earliest variants detected in Spain branched in the clade 19B (D614 viruses), which was the most prevalent clade during the first weeks of March, pointing to a founder effect. However, from mid-March to June 2020, G614-bearing viruses (clades 20A, 20B, and 20C) overcame D614 variants in Spain, probably as a consequence of an evolutionary advantage of this substitution in the spike protein. A higher infectivity of G614-bearing viruses than D614 variants was detected, suggesting that this substitution in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein could be behind the variant shift observed in Spain.

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The effect of eviction moratoriums on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

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